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Just A Few Current Faction Warfare Numbers


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#1 Danjo San

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 03:48 AM

Took the liberty to draw out some numbers in diagrams from the current leaderboard of today 24th of May 2016.
It's supposed to be a represantative Overview of the Loyalist and Merc Populations.
I base this "representative" Data on the Membercount of the top 100 Units.
This Sheet does not include Solo Players or Freelancers. It is based entirely on the Unit Leaderboard, (although 1 Man Units are included as long as they are in the Top 100).
Obviously not all players in all unit participate in Faction Warfare and some may have abandoned the game entirely and are still sitting as inactives within these numbers.
These Numbers therefore are to be read as an approximate outline.

Posted Image

#2 vocifer

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 04:07 AM

You can also roughly get the distribution of mercs by faction.
If you assume that proportion is the same for the rest of units below top100, you can get every faction population (which is about 10%+/-2 of total) and subtract the loyalist part from it.
That would be interesting.

Can't do it myself while I'm @work now.

Edited by vocifer, 24 May 2016 - 04:08 AM.


#3 Danjo San

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 07:36 AM

View Postvocifer, on 24 May 2016 - 04:07 AM, said:

You can also roughly get the distribution of mercs by faction.
If you assume that proportion is the same for the rest of units below top100, you can get every faction population (which is about 10%+/-2 of total) and subtract the loyalist part from it.
That would be interesting.

Can't do it myself while I'm @work now.

Not sure you can asses the distribution of mercs per faction unless you have the real contract data available. Also aside from intrisic motivational factors determining choice of contract extrinsic factors weigh in. As currently the new toy on the battlefield is the Kodiak the odds of choice are clearly in favor of clan contracts.
Once the next toy for the IS arrives or quirks get get remodeled, chances are the odds will switch again.
With all the short term contracts and external factors it is hard to determine Merc choice and such draw stats from the Leaderboard with representational value. PGI would have to display the current contract the Mercenaries are bound to.

#4 Zolaz

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 10:31 AM

View PostDanjo San, on 24 May 2016 - 03:48 AM, said:

Posted Image


PGI looks over the charts and says ... yep, we definitely need to sell another mech pack.

#5 nehebkau

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 11:38 AM

View PostZolaz, on 24 May 2016 - 10:31 AM, said:


PGI looks over the charts and says ... yep, we definitely need to sell another mech pack.



Ya..

"Lets give them more stuff to do the exact same thing they have always done..."

rather than

"Lets give them new ways to do new things with the stuff they already have ... then sell the new stuff."

Edited by nehebkau, 24 May 2016 - 11:39 AM.


#6 vocifer

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 01:34 PM

LOL)) Wanna see the TOTALS? Here you go:

Posted Image
Posted Image

And yeah, I've tried to decide the distribution of mercs but ended with % of error bigger than the population difference. It's hard when 10% can be rounded from 9.5 to 10.499.

Edited by vocifer, 24 May 2016 - 01:35 PM.


#7 vocifer

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 01:41 PM

The proportion of loyalists is pretty much the same, while for mercs I guess you should have taken first 1000 units rather then 100, hence they are spread across 10 factions.

Edited by vocifer, 24 May 2016 - 01:42 PM.


#8 Helsbane

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 01:43 PM

Odd. You'd think with all the very tempting reasons to go Loyalist these numbers would be different....

/sarcasmmodeoff

#9 JaxRiot

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 01:44 PM

View Postvocifer, on 24 May 2016 - 01:34 PM, said:

LOL)) Wanna see the TOTALS? Here you go:

Posted Image
Posted Image

And yeah, I've tried to decide the distribution of mercs but ended with % of error bigger than the population difference. It's hard when 10% can be rounded from 9.5 to 10.499.


Are those numbers reflective of current active players?

Are there really almost 38,000 people playing CW?

#10 vocifer

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 01:52 PM

View PostJaxRiot, on 24 May 2016 - 01:44 PM, said:


Are those numbers reflective of current active players?

Are there really almost 38,000 people playing CW?


Ofcourse not. Even those numbers in OP contain a big portion of inactive players just as a part of their units.
The latest most accurate number was at Tuk2 event, IIRC ~14500 players.

#11 Kael Posavatz

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 02:13 PM

View PostZolaz, on 24 May 2016 - 10:31 AM, said:



PGI looks over the charts and says ... yep, we definitely need to sell another mech pack.


I bet Russ will announce one at a Townhall on 3-June just to address this issue.

#12 Danjo San

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 03:47 PM

View Postvocifer, on 24 May 2016 - 01:34 PM, said:

LOL)) Wanna see the TOTALS? Here you go:

Posted Image
Posted Image

And yeah, I've tried to decide the distribution of mercs but ended with % of error bigger than the population difference. It's hard when 10% can be rounded from 9.5 to 10.499.

As I said it's nearly impossible to asses the distribution without knowing all the factors at stake. and even then it would just be a prediction based on plausibility and not facts.
I mean there are too many factors to be taken into consideration here:
Buffs and Nerfs on Contracts
Borderactivity
assumed quality of loyalist pugs
new toys (Clan or IS)
Nerfs or Buffs (Clan or IS)
Loyalists asking for support
Personal taste
Sequence of contracts (Clan-IS-Clan-IS, or some other sequence)
etc. I can probably think of many more ...

#13 Danjo San

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 03:58 PM

View Postvocifer, on 24 May 2016 - 01:41 PM, said:

The proportion of loyalists is pretty much the same, while for mercs I guess you should have taken first 1000 units rather then 100, hence they are spread across 10 factions.

thought about that, but the loyalists are also spread out across 10 factions and the numbers show it's close to 50/50.
Also once you get past the top 100, numbers of faction games played drops rapidly, also does the playercount per unit. You get to single digit units very fast, with the majority being 1 man units. remains from the split queue ...
Another factor not to miss is that probably a bunch of players have an alternative account, and maybe even a alternative unit, to test mechs, troll players in tier 5, play for a different faction or whatever ... so limiting the survey group to a representational amount makes sense

#14 justcallme A S H

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 07:13 PM

Only one issue with this thread, it's population "move" day/time.

The numbers will move quite a bit the last 12 hours and for the next 12 as everyone contracts are up or coming up (well, the bulk of them). My Unit is only just altering this hour from memory and we are 100 or so, likely others in the same boat.

These numbers are interesting. CSJ makes me laugh, most of those would HAVE to be inactive given I couldn't get a game for basically the last week.

#15 vocifer

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Posted 24 May 2016 - 09:55 PM

View PostDanjo San, on 24 May 2016 - 03:58 PM, said:


the loyalists are also spread out across 10 factions and the numbers show it's close to 50/50.



Nvm, I've just thought you'd taken top 100 from every faction, while you did that from all at once. So you were correct.

What it shows is the tendency of smaller units not having a risk to tie themselves with a permanent contract, as it moves from 50/50 the deeper you go.

#16 Danjo San

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Posted 25 May 2016 - 02:38 AM

View Postvocifer, on 24 May 2016 - 09:55 PM, said:


Nvm, I've just thought you'd taken top 100 from every faction, while you did that from all at once. So you were correct.

What it shows is the tendency of smaller units not having a risk to tie themselves with a permanent contract, as it moves from 50/50 the deeper you go.

Yes absolutely ... There are still so many mercs around any of them can easy go permanent without taking the "balance" out of the system. In an ideal setting all mercs would distribute to create even numbers so players of all factions could have opposed matches all the time. But unfortunatly it is highly unlikely that Mercs distribute evenly. As I said earlier there are a bunch of extrinsic factors that influence choice of contract, some of them are applied globally by PGI. Just take the factor new Mechs for instance. The contract runs out, your new Mech arrives, you are most likely to vote for the side you can play your new toy on. Like last week, when the Kodiak came out. Loads of Players bought the new shiny Teddybear, now a new vote for the next contract is due. The first factor that will influence the players choice is will I be able to play my Kodiak. The possible contracts drop form 10 to 4. The remaining 4 however are also influenced again. You may have had bad experience in one, (lack of manpower in FW, horrible Pug support, stupid attack lanes, etc) down to three. Maybe you have friends in one or two, but not the third, then it drops to a choice of two. from a former 10% chance of choice, extrinsic motivation has the power to turn that into a 50% chance.
Now if you consider the first extrinsic motivator is the introduction of a new mech and it has the power tho manipulate the choice up to chance of 25% (yes I know the overall chance stays the same, but from a players perspective the choices limit themselves) chances for a large cluster of mercs in one faction rise dramatically. The motivators in game set to balance the system are not high enough to counter this effect. As even negative contract conditions are not powerful enough to influnce the choice.
(Now many of you know my stand on large units, but i don't want to discuss that here.) So PGI has to implement some kind of solution to create either a motivator strong enough to have the community balance itself:
-Sequence Bonus for contracts, You have not yet played in faction X and Y, choose a contract there now and receive...
-Counter New Toy Factors with contract buffs on the opposing side
-Maybe only single Battle contracts - like the Freelancers
-etc.
or implement a threshold system to autobalance, say take the most recent active player count of mercs and loyalists from the prior week, add them up divide by 10, then add a small buffer to each +5-10%, you should have a ideal distribution number, then limit contracts available according to those numbers.
From the numbers I pulled that would mean a distribution of 1500 Players per Faction (rounded with extra buffer on top)
Clan Wolf has the largest Loyalist population under the top 100 Loyalist Units with a count of 1039 leaving contracts available for 461 Players. (say a large Unit of 300 Players picks that contract, the contract won't be displayed to any unit that has over 161 Players and continues so on)
Suggestions suggestions ...

#17 Count Zero 74

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Posted 25 May 2016 - 04:44 AM

Is it possible that a lot of players are grinding the Merc ranks first before they settle down as a loyalist somewhere ?

It's what I would do if had the chance.

#18 Gigashot

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Posted 25 May 2016 - 05:14 AM

Mercs killed FW.

And by that I mean, Mercs, who are just playing the game within in the system PGI gave them, killed FW.

So it's not personal, and I don't think you did it intentionally. But you killed it.

#19 Danjo San

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Posted 25 May 2016 - 05:55 AM

View PostCount Zero 74, on 25 May 2016 - 04:44 AM, said:

Is it possible that a lot of players are grinding the Merc ranks first before they settle down as a loyalist somewhere ?

It's what I would do if had the chance.

yes it's possible, probably some are doing just that, others may have a number of loyalists that still want to climb in rank

View PostR31Nismoid, on 24 May 2016 - 07:13 PM, said:

Only one issue with this thread, it's population "move" day/time.

The numbers will move quite a bit the last 12 hours and for the next 12 as everyone contracts are up or coming up (well, the bulk of them). My Unit is only just altering this hour from memory and we are 100 or so, likely others in the same boat.

These numbers are interesting. CSJ makes me laugh, most of those would HAVE to be inactive given I couldn't get a game for basically the last week.

yeah the population moves, thats why I said in the initial post it's due to the data collected on may 24th and can only be interpreted by that time frame, however if conducted on a regular basis one could document the fluctuation in numbers. that would be very interesting.

regarding CSJ from my Data pulled that day the "active population" counts 283, spread that over three FW Cycles, factor in that people may have real life obligations or want to level mechs or something like that... the active population per Cycle is slim to none. especially if there are no mercs to back up.

#20 nehebkau

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Posted 25 May 2016 - 06:09 AM

Many go merc so you aren't stuck throwing away 1/2 your deck of mechs in FW because LORE says you can't use them.





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