224 replies to this topic

[L3mming2]

banana peel, on 21 July 2016 - 03:11 PM, said:

Ok guys, i'll try to make it clear now)

I DO NOT demand any advices on the way to handle statistics.

I PROMISE to do it myself, if i have enough data. "Enough" starts somewhere at 300 total runs, i guess.

And i will appreciate if you keep discussions in a separate thread, there are plenty on this topic. Let's leave this thread for the data.

LOL i feel for you XD

[PhoenixFire55]

There is nothing to calculate. Just like any gambling you are losing in the long run with almost 100% chance.

[RuzzBot]

I'll bite. I had a single key from the event and 3 caches, one decent, containing: 360° target retention, mechbay, Kitfox-C right arm, gauss rifle, 3 keys, a mead horn, a C-AMS and a RFL-3N,( for he record: all the ones in bold were worth the 25 MC for me). I got a Kitfox-C right arm...

The other two caches weren't really worth opening, so unless I get a bucketload of keys, they'll remain either unopened or I'll sell them for 50k .

Edited by RuzzBot, 22 July 2016 - 03:11 AM.

[Elizander]

This is what happens when people make loot boxes that do not have exclusive content. :/

[Davegt27]

banana peel, on 21 July 2016 - 09:02 AM, said:

First thing first. It would be easier for PGI to just display the chances of drops inside the supply cache itself. Ah, well... But we can do some work ourselves, we're kinda used to it)
I think, it will help players to decide whether or not they want to spend their MCs.

What i suggest is we post for each our cache its possible contents and the actual result of the roll. Maybe up to 5 caches in one post to keep the topic as short as possible. Make screenshots if you can and use spoilers.
Once you are agreed to participate, it is vital to post results of EVERY cache you open. Selectivity, such as "gosh, finally i've won a mech! i'll go and share it with the community, but not my other 20 c-bill prizes", will ruin the whole thing)
Oh and another thing... If anyone wants to intentionally spoil results in favor or against the caches, i guess, not much we can do about it. I rely on your honesty, mechwarrior!)

I am yet to figure out how to handle such statistics and give an objective and easy to percieve result. The main thing is to collect a representative number of opened caches, rest is technical. But trust me on this, i'm a mathematician)

p.s. if you just sell caches, you can at least post it's possible contents. this data will help to estimate the value of supply cache keys.

I put my Cache pics in another thread want me to put them here also?

I have gotten 3 so far
got a CAP (had 9 already)
kit fox arm (don't own a kit fox and to scared to look if the kit fox arm has any hard points lol)
Ice ferret arm (already have all the Ice ferret arms I will ever need but hey)

the reason why Gambling was illegal in the US for so many years is because its not really gambling
its really a suckers game that only mathematicians would understand

Las Vegas is designed to separate you from your money they even call it entertainment these days

[ScrapIron Prime]

Remember kids, it's not gambling. They gave you 50,000 cBills, but they also gave you the opportunity to trade it for what's behind door number three.

Call it... "Let's Mecha Deal."

[cazidin]

ScrapIron Prime, on 22 July 2016 - 06:22 AM, said:

Remember kids, it's not gambling. They gave you 50,000 cBills, but they also gave you the opportunity to trade it for what's behind door number three.

Call it... "Let's Mecha Deal."

"Congratulations! You've won a brand new Highlander IIC-B AND a lifetime supply of Laser Cola! Laser Cola! It packs a powerful punch that lasts awhile!"

[Iron Heel]

6 caches were opened, 4 were won, 2 were event rewards.
4 had mechs and or mech bays as possible rewards.

1 BAP
2 LL
1 AC 10
100 mc
200,000 cbills
3 cache keys

[Elizander]

I opened one with the free key from the event and it gave me 10 MC UAVs. I guess that's 400k c-bills right there when I play my light mechs. :3

I have 2 caches that have disco balls for the rare. I think imma just sell those for c-bills.

Edited by Elizander, 22 July 2016 - 01:55 PM.

[MechaBattler]

It's a stupid goofy free to play mechanic that more than likely doesn't pay out enough. I tried STO's lockbox thing. Never got anything worthwhile.

If you're gonna gamble, they could at least put something interesting in the pot. Like a unique geometry for a mech or unique camo you can only get through the supply cache. They need to add things you can't simply buy to truly make it interesting. People have gotta catch em all fever. The whales will start beaching themselves just to complete their collection.

[TWIAFU]

El Bandito, on 21 July 2016 - 10:46 PM, said:

This event is a good opportunity, as we get free cache and key.

And will be funny to read posts from all those that call this gambling and are so against it use up those caches and keys.

[EasyPickings]

Out of the 4 I've opened, I've been awarded the following:

SRM-4
TBR-A Right Torso Omnipod
250,000 C-bills
Medium Pulse Laser

I have yet to hear about any big wins.

[Cairbre]

You guys are missing the point of this thread. He needs data to calculate.

Supply cache possibilities- hill climb, 315 xl engine, 250k cbill, lb-10xac, lrm15 x2, 1,000 MC, cup of pop, srm4 x2.
I opened it and got 250k Cbills.

Provide the possibilities, and the result when you open them. Plenty of threads to criticise them elsewhere- this is for figuring out the odds.

[davoodoo]

cazidin, on 21 July 2016 - 11:48 AM, said:

Who, uh... who begged for this, exactly? Who even WANTED this?

Actually i remember a thread asking for "more monetization" somewhere on the forums where ppl actually wanted to see caches with decals...

But yeah, like always, ask for more monetization and youll get monetization instead of features this monetization would supposedly fund...

Edited by davoodoo, 22 July 2016 - 04:18 PM.

[Koniving]

If I'm not mistaken, didn't the supply crate clarification or the supply crate info in the May/June/July roadmap basically state that the chances for all objects would be even?

If it's 6 items, it's 16.66666666666667% chance per thing.
Looking at it, the original text is deleted and the "Clarification" gives no specifics.

Balanced chances would have certainly encouraged me.

[Ryllen Kriel]

I got a free key from this event and opened a cache that had the most promising outcomes...I got the worst item and then MWO crashed...hahahaha. Thanks PGI, great addition to the game!

[Fire Zone]

I've opened about 8 Supply Cache by now and one thing I now expect is to get the crappiest items in it. I can now predict that I would get the one of the two weapons there. IMHO, it's just a bait and I've wasted precious MC's opening them.

[banana peel]

Fire Zone, on 23 July 2016 - 02:56 PM, said:

I've opened about 8 Supply Cache by now and one thing I now expect is to get the crappiest items in it. I can now predict that I would get the one of the two weapons there. IMHO, it's just a bait and I've wasted precious MC's opening them.

8 runs is not enough to judge. But your data can contribute) Please provide your results here, if you remember them correctly.

Also my record so far - kit-fox left arm, 250k c-bills and 500mc. RNGesus showed me some love. 500mc is the best prize i've heard of so far (and i obv consider it to be better then every c-bill mech).

For those who shared - thank you guys! For those who continued going off topic - plague on both your nipples!)
It's a pity there arent many 8-possible lists, but the main data ofc is actual results, and i am starting to get the sense of the odds. 300 should be enough for the first review.

[Liquid Leopard]

So, if I buy a key and open this, there isn't an even chance at each of the items inside?

Of all the items inside, the MC reward is the one I want most. If the items have different probabilities, the MC reward has the lowest probability, doesn't it?

[Baulven]

Liquid Leopard, on 24 July 2016 - 01:34 PM, said:

So, if I buy a key and open this, there isn't an even chance at each of the items inside?

Of all the items inside, the MC reward is the one I want most. If the items have different probabilities, the MC reward has the lowest probability, doesn't it?

That is correct they are not weighted the same. They also won't reveal the numbers so I expect it to be abysmally low something on the order of 1:500 or worse.