224 replies to this topic

[TWIAFU]

Baulven, on 24 July 2016 - 01:50 PM, said:

That is correct they are not weighted the same. They also won't reveal the numbers so I expect it to be abysmally low something on the order of 1:500 or worse.

Quote PGI source please.

[Baulven]

It was by Tina in the other thread. Give me a minute and I will link to it.

[Malcolm Vordermark]

TWIAFU, on 24 July 2016 - 02:00 PM, said:

Quote PGI source please.

Tina Benoit, on 21 July 2016 - 12:20 PM, said:

Unfortunately I can't give you an answer to this as we don't share Supply Cache statistics..
Sorry!

Edit: The Patch Notes do mention however that the more valuable the item, the rarer it will be.

Here is the quote from the patch notes

Quote

For some of the higher-value items you can acquire from a Supply Cache, such as a Summoner SMN-D (including a Mech Bay to house it) or a 1000 MC pack, the value of a Supply Cache Reward can far exceed the value of the Supply Cache Key used to unlock it. The more valuable the item however, the rarer it will be!

Its not clear if by rarer they mean it is less likely to be in the supply crate or if it has a lower chance of being rolled when unlocking a crate.

Since they are not forthcoming with information, I'm going to assume it means it has a lower odd of being the selected item.

Edited by Rouken Vordermark, 24 July 2016 - 02:10 PM.

[Baulven]

Rouken Vordermark, on 24 July 2016 - 02:06 PM, said:

**** you beat me to it.

[Boulangerie]

I was thinking about how to word this. If they did have a 1 in 8 chance of any slot being rolled, there wouldn't exist any caches with a guaranteed ROI on the MC used to purchase. The caches with mechs would probably be super rare too. The fact that most people gave gotten a cache with a number of decent rewards or a mech, strongly supports the hypothesis that the caches contents are semi-randomly selected, and the actual contents are determined by a weighted roll for said contents.

Most mobile games with thus mechanic have very low chances for getting the best rewards. I would guess around 1% or so for the mechs. They also usually offer free caches/chests occasionally.

[Liquid Leopard]

I finally got the free key, and used it to unlock this cache:



The items spun like a wheel, and I got this:


So, that's 1 of the 300 data points, you're looking for, right?

...And, how much effort did they put into programming this CR@P???
Unless they have an event with more free keys, I'm afraid I can't contribute any more data.

[Sigilum Sanctum]

I stuck my foot in my mouth and actually opened one because there was a chance for a Seismic Sensor.

...I won the Sensor.

[Pak Hammond]

So far have opened three. Only one had a chance of a Mech and that was for a Vindicator. Thought, dammit, this is going to be the one time I win the mech, but no... Picked up a mechbay from that spin. Also picked up 1 large pulse laser and a C a/c 2.

Still have one sitting there, but no mc and no keys, so it can sit there for now.

[Tsukimi]

I had opened 2 in a row today that stopped on the mech prize for a full second or 2 then shifted to the next prize at the very last second leading me to believe that they are rigged to only accidentally let you have the mechs from them.

Jenner box stopped on the Jenner for roughly 2 seconds then shifted to a Clan AMS, Jagermech stopped for roughly 2 seconds then shifted to the KFX C Right arm. Before the Jenner had a possible Rifleman in the crate but it only stopped 1 second then rolled 2 slots to a 250k c-bills prize.

Have opened up 3 others for a chance at a Banshee, another Jager and a Vindicator previously all 3 of those were close to the mechs stopping 1 before the mechs as well. Any time it was a non mech slot that stopped for a full second would always stay on that slot leading me to my belief that they are rigged even more so.

Edited by Tsukimi, 25 July 2016 - 05:48 PM.

[Malcolm Vordermark]

Tsukimi, on 25 July 2016 - 05:28 PM, said:

I had opened 2 in a row today that stopped on the mech prize for a full second or 2 then shifted to the next prize at the very last second leading me to believe that they are rigged to only accidentally let you have the mechs from them.

Jenner box stopped on the Jenner for roughly 2 seconds then shifted to a Clan AMS, Jagermech stopped for roughly 2 seconds then shifted to the KFX C Right arm. Before the Jenner had a possible Rifleman in the crate but it only stopped 1 second then rolled 2 slots to a 250k c-bills prize.

Have opened up 3 others for a chance at a Banshee, another Jager and a Vindicator previously all 3 of those were close to the mechs stopping 1 before the mechs as well. Any time it was a non mech slot that stopped for a full second would always stay on that slot leading me to my belief that they are rigged even more so.

Thats probably just a perception thing. I seriously doubt the selection is made during the animation. More likely the selection is made and then the animation is played.

[Sorbic]

Rouken Vordermark, on 25 July 2016 - 09:32 PM, said:

Thats probably just a perception thing. I seriously doubt the selection is made during the animation. More likely the selection is made and then the animation is played.

This.

I've opened 3. Got 1 Day premium time and 2 different types of weapons (one gave 2 weapons) but I can't remember which. So far I'm fine with the rewards. 25mc for 1 premium day is cheap.

[Pyed]

https://goo.gl/photo...uR4DM8r4aCfGaa9

Results:
AC/10
C-AC/2
C-MPLAS
ERPPC
AC/10
IFR-D Right Arm
Priority Air Strike x10
C-SSRM6

These are the 8 I got as a bonus for buying an MC pack. I've opened 9 previously that I didn't document, every single one of them with similar "rewards". So 17 total, all garbage.

[Vellron2005]

I've only opened 3 so far, and ALL THREE gave me THE LEAST FAVORABLE item.

More on that here:
http://mwomercs.com/...ireable-reward/

I've created a topic before I saw this one.. anyways.. I think the caches are rigged to give you the least favorable item you would normally never spend MC on..

So far I've gotten C-AC2, SRM6, and 2xLPL..

Why I find these items least desirable? Cose' I can get them all for cbills... and I would NEVER use MC to buy them..

OK, I get that it's a gamble.. sure.. cool with that.. but 3 (some have had more than that) bad rolls in a row? If the roll is random, the chances of that happening are astronomical. (I play d20 D&D so I know how often 3 bad rolls in a row happen)

That last one contained some amazing items( centurion, mech bay, to name a few), with the 2LPL's being THE ONLY item I found undesirable. I don't think my luck is THAT BAD..

The supply caches feel rigged.. :-(

EDIT:

Pyed, on 27 July 2016 - 05:32 PM, said:

https://goo.gl/photo...uR4DM8r4aCfGaa9

Results:
AC/10
C-AC/2
C-MPLAS
ERPPC
AC/10
IFR-D Right Arm
Priority Air Strike x10
C-SSRM6

These are the 8 I got as a bonus for buying an MC pack. I've opened 9 previously that I didn't document, every single one of them with similar "rewards". So 17 total, all garbage.

Your post proves for me that the caches are NOT random... The link shows pictures of your caches so far (thanks for that).

I can't prove it with a picture, but I know I got THE EXACT SAME cache as you did.. the one with the centurion - exactly the same! I won the two LPL's..

So if the caches don't contain random items, then they are probably not random in what comes up either?

Edited by Vellron2005, 28 July 2016 - 12:13 AM.

[Boulangerie]

Vellron2005, on 27 July 2016 - 11:59 PM, said:

I've only opened 3 so far, and ALL THREE gave me THE LEAST FAVORABLE item.

More on that here:
http://mwomercs.com/...ireable-reward/

I've created a topic before I saw this one.. anyways.. I think the caches are rigged to give you the least favorable item you would normally never spend MC on..

So far I've gotten C-AC2, SRM6, and 2xLPL..

Why I find these items least desirable? Cose' I can get them all for cbills... and I would NEVER use MC to buy them..

OK, I get that it's a gamble.. sure.. cool with that.. but 3 (some have had more than that) bad rolls in a row? If the roll is random, the chances of that happening are astronomical. (I play d20 D&D so I know how often 3 bad rolls in a row happen)

That last one contained some amazing items( centurion, mech bay, to name a few), with the 2LPL's being THE ONLY item I found undesirable. I don't think my luck is THAT BAD..

The supply caches feel rigged.. :-(

EDIT:




Your post proves for me that the caches are NOT random... The link shows pictures of your caches so far (thanks for that).

I can't prove it with a picture, but I know I got THE EXACT SAME cache as you did.. the one with the centurion - exactly the same! I won the two LPL's..

So if the caches don't contain random items, then they are probably not random in what comes up either?

Well, I've gotten duplicate caches already. I think there are a preset number of them, and perhaps a few with mechs in them. We just need more data on the contents.

As far as saying that 3 "bad" rolls is low probability, I don't see how you can state that since we don't know the chances assigned to each slot in the cache.

Pretty much every game I've played with this mechanic uses weighted probabilities for different rarity items in the cache/chest/pact etc. For example, it lists 8 items, and we'll say that one of these is the "dummy prize". That dummy prize probably has a much higher chance of being rolled. The "grand prize" item might only be 1%. I don't see any reason to give people a 12.5% (which would be 1 in 8 chance) of getting a mech for just 25 MC. It just doesn't make sense from a business perspective to me.

That said, I think PGI should follow suit and disclose the probabilities of rolling each item. Even if they are generated based on the contents of the cache, there's no reason not to display them. I think people will still take a chance with the gamble that they will get something awesome, and it will help people decide which cache to open as well with their free keys/leftover MC.

[J0anna]

If you haven't seen them:



and

[AlphaToaster]

I put this formula together to help those who might want to know what they're going to get:

Lump of Coal > Cbills > LPL > crap weapons > Anything you might want

[AlphaToaster]

AlphaToaster, on 28 July 2016 - 07:17 AM, said:

I put this formula together to help those who might want to know what they're going to get:

Lump of Coal > Cbills > LPL > crap weapons > Anything you might want

EDIT - I re-read the patch notes because this felt mis-leading. I noticed PGI never says specifically "you have a chance to randomly win one of the items in the cache". They're careful to divert with the stuff about what the lowest value will be and how it can be sold if you dont want any of the prize. THis is where it gets shady, they show a few nice things in there as that eyecandy but the cache are pre-determined. There really isn't a chance to win the nicer items that we're being told to base the decision to open it or not on when the cache is pre-determined.

[Baulven]

AlphaToaster, on 28 July 2016 - 07:25 AM, said:

EDIT - I re-read the patch notes because this felt mis-leading. I noticed PGI never says specifically "you have a chance to randomly win one of the items in the cache". They're careful to divert with the stuff about what the lowest value will be and how it can be sold if you dont want any of the prize. THis is where it gets shady, they show a few nice things in there as that eyecandy but the cache are pre-determined. There really isn't a chance to win the nicer items that we're being told to base the decision to open it or not on when the cache is pre-determined.

That's actually a lot more work then simply coding abyssmal chances. The fact that everyone is still saying as high as 1% leads me to believe that people don't think this design is truly out to toss them. The odds could be much, much worse than 1%.

[Kalleballe]

12 more opened here
Result: 1 gxp, 1 cbills, 1 cocpit item, omnipod rest weapons.

[banana peel]

Bump!
More data arrived here and there, and i'm intending to do some calculations this evening for you guys before dusting off my streak boats to troll all those tryhard lights in the queue.

If you havent yet shared your experience with caches in this or another cach-related thread, please do. But note, statements like "i've won a Zeus!" or "i've opened ten crates, all junk, its rigged, f** pgi" wont help. Only the list of exact prizes of all the caches you opened will contribute.