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Is It Worth Opening A Supply Cache? Let's Calculate.


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#101 Stink Bug

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Posted 15 August 2016 - 12:23 PM

Still collecting info? I've 3 contributions, none of which were fruitful. I wouldn't recommend anyone buy keys for this awful system. Have screenshots but couldn't figure out how to add so here's the written description:

Supply Cache 1 Options: C-ErPPC; MC Reward 500; Target Info Gathering; C-ultraAC/5 x2; AC/10; Large Laser; Disco Ball; EXE-A

Result: AC/10

Supply Cache 2 Options: C-Bill 250,000; MC Reward 50; C-Gauss; Advanced UAV x10; Supply Cache key x3; Dog Tag; Er PPC; KFX-S

Result: C-Bill 250,000

Supply Cache 3 Options: Mech Bay; Baby on Board; Narc; Er Large Laser; 360 Target Retention; 3 Days Premium; C-ERPPC; MC Reward 1000

Result: NARC

#102 SmithMPBT

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Posted 15 August 2016 - 12:44 PM

9 Supply Caches opened, 9 c-bill purchasable weapons.

Posted Image

#103 AlphaToaster

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Posted 15 August 2016 - 03:28 PM

PGI doesn't understand that winning a C-bills prize out of a cache which takes an MC key to open is actually considered losing to the player purchasing the key.

So to PGI, everyone is a winner every time! Yay!

#104 Khobai

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Posted 15 August 2016 - 03:32 PM

Anything thats not a hat is a ripoff for MC

PGI seriously needs to add mech hats to the game

#105 Felicitatem Parco

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Posted 15 August 2016 - 03:35 PM

People need to hurry-up and get it through their skulls that Supply Caches are MC->CBill conversation tools, and they offer the best MC->CBill conversation rate in the game.

Yes, for people who do not have enough time to earn all their C-Bills. Those people do exist, despite the claims made by some ForumWarriors that everybody and their Uncle are swimming in CBills.

#106 Khobai

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Posted 15 August 2016 - 03:41 PM

then why not just allow direct MC to cbill conversion?

the whole point of supply caches should be to have a chance at getting items you cant buy with either MC or cbills and can only get from supply caches

its just really anticlimactic when anything you can get from a supply crate you can just buy with cbills anyway

That is precisely why we need mech hats.

Edited by Khobai, 15 August 2016 - 03:43 PM.


#107 InsaneRotta

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 03:49 PM

Myeah, every supply cache (~20) I have opened has been crap. It's either weapons, c-bills or omnipods. One I opened had all good prizes, a mech, premium time, good modules ect. excpect for one, which I naturally got: 10 k c-bill price! Congratulations me!

#108 SQW

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 04:58 PM

Here's a gift that needs you to spend money to open.

I bet PGI staff were invited to a lot of parties as a kid.

#109 Mycrus

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 05:03 PM

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No ******* beginners luck

#110 ShadowFire

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 07:49 PM

Wouldn't it be nice for PGI to vary the amount of wheel "pie" slice to match the odds of winning those nice prizes. Those minor weapons would take up 3/4 of the wheel's circumference while the prize mechs would only be as wide as a sliver.

Having all the slices of the roulette wheel have the same width implies a fair and even chance for all... which we know a load of BS!

#111 Kirkland Langue

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 08:36 PM

View PostShadowFire, on 16 August 2016 - 07:49 PM, said:

Wouldn't it be nice for PGI to vary the amount of wheel "pie" slice to match the odds of winning those nice prizes. Those minor weapons would take up 3/4 of the wheel's circumference while the prize mechs would only be as wide as a sliver.

Having all the slices of the roulette wheel have the same width implies a fair and even chance for all... which we know a load of BS!


I've heard, or maybe I made it up and convinced myself that I heard about it, that PGI is planning on modifying the display of the "possible prizes" to give an indication of how likely an item is to actually get picked.

My impression is that it'll be something like the color of the box or shade of the background indicating Rare or Common.

#112 Carlieth

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 08:56 PM

So far I have opened 7 cache. Each and every time I have predicted the outcome of the win 100% accurately. So far the only thing good was a radar deprivation I kept and a hill climb which I sold.

Last one I opened had all really good contents . MechBay, Hula Girl, Seismic Sensor, Summoner ( cant remember model ) Radar deprivation and 5000GXP. The bad ones were 250,000CB and a Large laser. I was sat next to my friend ( go me into the game in the first place ) and said. Oh look a large laser that costs 25MC...............I was right. Again.

Edited by Carlieth, 16 August 2016 - 08:57 PM.


#113 SQW

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Posted 16 August 2016 - 08:57 PM

View PostKirkland Langue, on 16 August 2016 - 08:36 PM, said:


I've heard, or maybe I made it up and convinced myself that I heard about it, that PGI is planning on modifying the display of the "possible prizes" to give an indication of how likely an item is to actually get picked.

My impression is that it'll be something like the color of the box or shade of the background indicating Rare or Common.


The purpose of Supply Cache is to generate another revenue stream by fooling people into thinking they have a 1/8 chance of getting that mech. If the caches are about rewarding people then there shouldn't even be a MC key. If they are about lucky draw then the odds would have been made clear from the start.

PGI is running out ideas now that mech packs aren't selling as well compare to years before and player numbers dropping steadily. This is a desperate measure aimed at squeezing the last bit of money from the gullible and a scumbag move at that.

So, ask yourself, why should they do anything that makes people LESS likely to buy keys? Those that figure the odds are stacked wouldn't spend MC anymore and those who are still blind will continue to do so. What incentive is there for PGI to make things more transparent?

#114 Boulangerie

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 01:20 AM

View PostCarlieth, on 16 August 2016 - 08:56 PM, said:

So far I have opened 7 cache. Each and every time I have predicted the outcome of the win 100% accurately. So far the only thing good was a radar deprivation I kept and a hill climb which I sold.

Last one I opened had all really good contents . MechBay, Hula Girl, Seismic Sensor, Summoner ( cant remember model ) Radar deprivation and 5000GXP. The bad ones were 250,000CB and a Large laser. I was sat next to my friend ( go me into the game in the first place ) and said. Oh look a large laser that costs 25MC...............I was right. Again.


You realize you got two of the rarer prizes in 7 unlocks right? :)

I know that Hill climb isn't the most popular module (it does have some proponents), but Radar Derp basically costs as much or more than some of the mech prizes.

I'd prefer if they showed the actual % chances for each slot in the cache, but the color coding thing will at least help people to realize which items have lower chances.

#115 FearThePaladin

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 08:03 AM

Thanks for posting guys! I had the same feeling that this was weighted and your posting confirms that PGI seems to be misleading the gamers here.

Very disappointing... I will be selling the caches and thinking about if PGI is going to get any more money from me. I hate to be intentionally deceived. I love the game and have put in lots of money on mechs etc... but this is really low quality business.

#116 RyHavoc

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 08:21 AM

My .02 on SC's:

Took part in the big MC event, twice ... 25+ supply cache openings, includng in game SC winning too, for full disclosure and i can claim a 5k GXP as my big win....which did get me over 15K and i did upgrade my UAV, so some small win and time saved...but also very confident i would have gotten there on my own, and fairly quickly, as i do buy premimum time, & have hero and Champion mechs to grind with, etc.

BUT ...the #'s of times at the end of the "gambling spin" that it juuuuu-uuuuuust slides off the rifleman, commando, etc....onto the LRM 10, AC2, AMS, etc... leaving me with that greasy, just been worked at the county fair, get this fake fruit funnel cake off me, need a shower bad, get me outta this dusty parking lot RIGHT NOW..., feeling...is at least 10 ...

I like the presentation of a SC to one of the winning team, thats cool...
I like you can just sell for cbills

-Could just be the presentation, but something that makes it COOL vs. Kinda Lame/meh ... is missing...

anyhoo...thanks for listening and see you in the dropship-

Ry-

Edited by RyHavoc, 17 August 2016 - 08:22 AM.


#117 0bsidion

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 10:10 AM

If PGI really wanted people to feel these were worth opening they'd equalize the chances for everything in the cache. Instead they took this route. The chances of getting something really good would still be small, but at least you wouldn't be consistently getting the worst thing out of the box.

Personally I wouldn't open one unless the value of the worst item exceeded 50k in value by at least double that. That's just me though.

#118 JC Daxion

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 10:47 AM

View PostKhobai, on 15 August 2016 - 03:41 PM, said:



the whole point of supply caches should be to have a chance at getting items you cant buy with either MC or cbills and can only get from supply caches




How on earth did you jump to that conclusion? They are called Supply caches, and just like all Mech games prior supplies/salvage was always weapons or the random mech.. premium time/credits/MC are all like getting a credit chip.

People have been asking for salvage since the game launched.. Me as well, but i had no illusions they were going to be that..

Presonally i'd rather have um drop over the 50K win bonus, and just give us all a crate, and then give a random loosing team person one.. those that want their 50k win bonus can sell it.. All of us that don't mind spending a few MC, to boost c-bills, and a 1-200/300 shot at something really nice, can do so..





View Post0bsidion, on 17 August 2016 - 10:10 AM, said:

If PGI really wanted people to feel these were worth opening they'd equalize the chances for everything in the cache. Instead they took this route. The chances of getting something really good would still be small, but at least you wouldn't be consistently getting the worst thing out of the box.

Personally I wouldn't open one unless the value of the worst item exceeded 50k in value by at least double that. That's just me though.


How would it be small if the chances were now 1-8

If this was the case they would be far more rare, or Keys would cost way more.. I'm averaging around 150k per open, but only opened a few.. would be more if i just opened ones with higher min values though, but seeing i don't get many, i just open um anyway, and have done so with just free keys, or Free MC from events, so not a single investment on my side.. (i think i got 600k total so far..)

If i spend 500 MC, and get 3-4m credits, i am so far ahead of anything else i can get for 500MC credit wise (only thing i can get for that much is a mech bay, which i don't need, or one shot camo, a single color, or perhaps a under 30 ton IS light on sale) But for that amount of credits.. I can buy many lights, or almost a medium in many cases.. If i pull a couple good crates out of 20, Then i can easily get many of the IS mediums which are 4-5m.. Soo yea.. I may not get a mech out of the crate,, But 20 crates can get me a mech, and one that I want!

Not some random mech, i may not even care for.. and seeing i have an IS account, and Clan account my luck will most certainly give me a mech i wont use on my account anyway.. I'd rather get a module anyway..



View PostBoulangerie, on 17 August 2016 - 01:20 AM, said:


I know that Hill climb isn't the most popular module (it does have some proponents),




Sure, if you play a mech with JJ's,, But slap it on a locust, commando, raven, cicada, or dragon and you will change your mind when you can run over more things than you can imagine.. and do it faster than many mechs with JJ's as you don't slow down. But if you play the JJ mechs and camp at LR,, they are not so useful..

Edited by JC Daxion, 17 August 2016 - 10:51 AM.


#119 Nemesis Duck

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 11:51 AM

T-t-t-tirade, tirate. None here, move along.

#120 Dee Eight

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Posted 17 August 2016 - 11:57 AM

I've opened over a hundred, I've pulled 4 modules, five mech bays, a couple weeks of premium time, lots of weapons I use (the ones I don't, like narcs get sold) and kept, c-bills, Omnipods (same rule as with weapons), MC and more keys. I haven't pulled any warhorns, engines, or mechs. I think I got ONE cockpit decoration item. I've probably been presented with forty plus caches that could contain a mech, but didn't get one. The modules were Adv Sensors twice, Radar Dep once, and Info gathering once.





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