224 replies to this topic

[ImperialKnight]

I'll never buy keys. But I'll take the free ones from events. And I only open caches with chance of getting a Mech I'm interested to play with. Otherwise, it's sell the cache

[BlackW1nd]

So, I finally got my module, after login in half and an hour ago. Still don't know why I didn't get it as soon as opened the supply.

Edited by BlackW1nd, 24 August 2016 - 12:46 PM.

[The Lost Boy]

Well if you purchase Cbills for MC at the lowest level 25MC = 34,000Cbills aprox, so as long as you get at least 40,000 cbills you are on the plus side. But only barely. If you are just looking to farm cbills it is a better deal than buying cbills, but you may get gxp or cockpit items that cant be resold or may not be usefull. Its called gambling for a reason.

[Wildman13]

I don't believe I've been awarded an end of match cache in over a week of playing. Is the supply cache award based on match performance or random?

[Boulangerie]

FatDaddy, on 25 August 2016 - 04:38 PM, said:

I don't believe I've been awarded an end of match cache in over a week of playing. Is the supply cache award based on match performance or random?

It's randomly awarded to a member of the winning team. Statistically, you could get one every 12 matches or so, but it wouldn't be anomalous to miss catching one for a number of games more than that. My statistics knowledge is pretty rusty,but the chances of you getting a cache in X number of games is roughly equal to 1 - (the chances of you not getting a cache in X games, in decimal format).

Since you have 11/12 chance of not getting a cache, you multiply (11/12)*(11/12)*(11/12).... continuing as many games as you've played.

Let's assume you played 30 games.
1-((11/12)^30) = about 0.9265
This means you have about a 92.65% chance of getting at least one cache after you've played 30 games. This is far from guaranteed.

How many games did you play in that week?

Edit: After I went to bed I realized as well, that I calculated for 30 wins, so you'd probably play quite a bit more games to get those wins in. the 92.65% chance above could take anywhere from 50-70 games for most players.

Edited by Boulangerie, 26 August 2016 - 01:22 AM.

[Khan KarC]

ROFL.

Had 2 caches from event both had possibility for mech bay, ended getting worst reward from both of those.

[Tamwulf]

Got my first Supply Cache- previewed it, saw a Mechbay and an Urbanmech as a possible reward, bought a key, opened it up, and got a Double Heat Sink.

I'll be selling all the rest of my cache's.

[I_am_Groot]

I opened one with a jagermech it landed on the mech stopped completely then jumped over to the next item which was a ppc. I think it's rigged so you CANNOT get a mech in it.

[Galenit]

I_am_Groot, on 31 August 2016 - 08:11 AM, said:

I opened one with a jagermech it landed on the mech stopped completely then jumped over to the next item which was a ppc. I think it's rigged so you CANNOT get a mech in it.

Nah, its just the wheel that is rigged.

If it would show the real chances,
it would have 10000 or more items on it,
1 would show the mech, 2 or 3 a mechbay
and 500 or more the pcc
and maybe 1000 or 2000 times a heatsink
...

Edited by Galenit, 31 August 2016 - 08:21 AM.

[Malcolm Vordermark]

I_am_Groot, on 31 August 2016 - 08:11 AM, said:

I opened one with a jagermech it landed on the mech stopped completely then jumped over to the next item which was a ppc. I think it's rigged so you CANNOT get a mech in it.

It figures out what you win before that animation starts. The animation is just for show for dramatic tension.

[Dee Eight]

Well I just opened one and got a prize I surely didn't need... 5000 GXP.... awarded right away so maybe they fixed the delay bug on cache injections that was happeneing server side. Joy... 5000 to add to the 261k GXP I already had.

[Big Tin Man]

Has anyone been trying/testing caches on the PTS? For science

[Jetfire]

I got a AC5 and 50MC out of 12 I think those are the best outcomes, some DHS. I would guess the average value is $50k so some much less and some much much more. Not the salvage mechanic I wanted but whatever, for people with cash to burn it's a fun looking spinny wheel I guess.

[Dark MagiKarp]

The mechanic seems to be rigged, I've opened a number of these and have ALWAYS got the crappiest result. Based on the mathematics of maximum likelihood I can safely rule out the fair die assumption of the wheel. I am happy to default to sell the cache when I ever get one awarded to me now. C'mon PGI, this is such a gimmick at least be up front about this...

In the immortal words of JJB - "How wrude".

[Boulangerie]

Dark MagiKarp, on 31 August 2016 - 04:51 PM, said:

The mechanic seems to be rigged, I've opened a number of these and have ALWAYS got the crappiest result. Based on the mathematics of maximum likelihood I can safely rule out the fair die assumption of the wheel. I am happy to default to sell the cache when I ever get one awarded to me now. C'mon PGI, this is such a gimmick at least be up front about this...

In the immortal words of JJB - "How wrude".

Go ahead and sell the caches, however, they've been pretty upfront that the chances are not equal for each item. The wheel animation was probably a bad idea. Items are color coded for rarity as well.
From only opening free caches from events (they give you keys anyway) the best item I've gotten was an XL 280 engine, which is actually pretty good to have laying around IMO.

[Malcolm Vordermark]

Boulangerie, on 31 August 2016 - 04:55 PM, said:

they've been pretty upfront that the chances are not equal for each item.

The system was live for about a month before they clarified it.

[MechWarrior5152251]

All free to play games use gambling. [Redacted] It is a tax on the math challenged...

Edited by draiocht, 25 September 2016 - 03:21 PM.
off-topic discriminatory remark

[Vellron2005]

I've decided I'm only gonna open challenge-gotten caches with challenge-gotten keys.

The rest, only if the minimal, least worth item is something I actually need, but can't afford at the moment (like if I need a Large pulse laser, and don't have enough cbills to buy one, cose' I just bought a new mech or something like that)

[Caldek]

Hi. Not sure if this is still being tabulated, but thought I'd throw in my 2cents. I just burned most of my free keys from the recent events. I opened 14 caches, receiving 6 common, 6 uncommon, 2 rare, and 0 ultra rare items. It'll be nearly impossible to assess the statistical likelihood of items due to the variable nature of each cache containing variable numbers of each rarity. I'm assuming that the rarity and composition of each cache is the only governing factor on what we pull. Note that 8 of the caches I opened had UR items in them and that all 14 had 2 or fewer common items. I didn't track the uncommon and rare rates, it gets to complicated. I'm not sure if anyone is tracking the pulls, but if so I'd be very interested to see what a larger data set suggests on success rate for more desirable items. - Happy Hunting, Cal

[Wheels]

I read this post after I opened up my last batch of supply caches, sorry. So, I had 15 supply caches and decided to see what kind of value I would get out of them. I looked at each supply cache and checked out what was offered, only 2 out of 15 had blah for content, but I wanted to see what I would get and what the overall value would be.

Winning items from 15 Supply Caches:
Number Item Value Sell Value
1. AC-5 250,000 cbills 125,000 cbills
2. 2 x CUAC-5 800,000 cbills 400,000 cbills
3. Coolshot 18 (10) 150 MC
4. 1 Day Premium Time 250 MC
5. PPC 400,000 cbills 200,000 cbills
6. Large Laser 200,000 cbills 100,000 cbills
7. Clan Gauss Rifle 600,000 cbills 300,000 cbills
8. Artie Accuracy 4,000,000 cbills 2,000,000 cbills
9. Gauss Rifle 600,000 cbills 300,000 cbills
10. Advanced UAV (10) 150 MC
11. Clan Active Probe 400,000 cbills 200,000 cbills
12. ER Large Laser 400,000 cbills 200,000 cbills
13. 2 x Med Pulse Lasers 240,000 cbills 120,000 cbills
14. Jump Jet Class V 44,000 cbills 22,000 cbills
15. Cbills 250,000 250,000 cbills 250,000 cbills

Total Value Rec'd 8,184,000 cbills 4,092,000 cbills Value if I sold the items I could
550 MC
My total cost to unlock 15 Supply Caches: 375 MC

Did I get some items I don't want or need sure, but for the most part I'm pretty happy with what I got. Next time I will do screen shots of what was in each cache and what I won and then post, but I'm going to wait until I have another 15 or 20 before I do it.

I read some of these posts and saw where people are complaining about some of the items in the supply caches, well they can't very well make the winning item a high cbill/mc item every time, you see what the supply cache has, you see what you don't like versus what you do then decide whether to buy the key and take the spin or sell it for 50,000 cbills, your choice.

What I don't like are the people that makes comments about the game "this shouldn't even be called Mech warrior" and "I'll never pay any real money into this game". MWO is not a perfect game but it is the best Mech game around and they keep getting better. To you cheap people that only do the FREE PLAY, if you don't put any money $$$$ into this game then you have no right whatsoever to voice any complaints. It takes $$$ to pay programmers, artists, everyone that makes up MWO, if you don't support it with dollars i.e. premium time, buy mech packs, MC packages when on sale then how can you expect MWO to get better than it is right now???? If everyone thought as you do, then MWO would soon be broke and the website would be down and then where would you go to play Mech Warrior! Instead of whining and being cheap, how about you create topics in the forums about what you see as wrong with MWO and solutions on how to fix them. Yes, If you can whine about what you don't like, then you better have solutions on how to fix or improve said problem, otherwise you are just so much Hot Wind blowing!

Best Regards All,
Wheels
17,689 total matches
Legendary Founder
Owner of 347 mechs (All but 62 are mastered)
Note: If it comes in a Pack then I buy it, best value in both money and time