38 replies to this topic

[Big Tin Man]

A supply cache shows a chance for one of eight items. Are the odds of me drawing one of the eight items 12.5%?

Please mark your answer below

[_] Yes
[_] No

Thank you.

[cazidin]

Big Tin Man, on 21 July 2016 - 11:44 AM, said:

A supply cache shows a chance for one of eight items. Are the odds of me drawing one of the eight items 12.5%?

Please mark your answer below

[_] Yes
[X] No

Thank you.

You're welcome.

P.S. Do you want to buy a Mechpack?

[Spleenslitta]

You will probably have to ask Russ about this on Twitter. Regretably it's currently the only way for us to get PGI to answer any of our questions.

[Baulven]

Spleenslitta, on 21 July 2016 - 12:02 PM, said:

You will probably have to ask Russ about this on Twitter. Regretably it's currently the only way for us to get PGI to answer any of our questions.

Tina at least responded to a thread. Baby steps, am I right?

[Bishop Steiner]

Baulven, on 21 July 2016 - 12:04 PM, said:

Tina at least responded to a thread. Baby steps, am I right?

well we are a bunch of big scary neckbeards, so I guess we are intimidating?

[Lostdragon]

Quote

The more valuable the item however, the rarer it will be!

That is what the patch notes said. I take that to mean that the odds of getting the items displayed are not equal for each one, that a mech or 1000mc will be much rarer to get than a flamer even if all 3 are shown in every supply cache.

[Jackal Noble]

[Big Tin Man]

Spleenslitta, on 21 July 2016 - 12:02 PM, said:

You will probably have to ask Russ about this on Twitter. Regretably it's currently the only way for us to get PGI to answer any of our questions.

I did that already.

[Lostdragon]

Bishop Steiner, on 21 July 2016 - 12:07 PM, said:

well we are a bunch of big scary neckbeards, so I guess we are intimidating?

Speak for yourself, I am slim with a well groomed beard and rakish good looks.

[Cy Mitchell]

Bishop Steiner, on 21 July 2016 - 12:07 PM, said:

well we are a bunch of big scary neckbeards, so I guess we are intimidating?

Nah, just smelly.

[Tina Benoit]

Unfortunately I can't give you an answer to this as we don't share Supply Cache statistics..
Sorry!

Edit: The Patch Notes do mention however that the more valuable the item, the rarer it will be.

Edited by Tina Benoit, 21 July 2016 - 12:23 PM.

[Big Tin Man]

Tina Benoit, on 21 July 2016 - 12:20 PM, said:

Unfortunately I can't give you an answer to this as we don't share Supply Cache statistics..
Sorry!

Edit: The Patch Notes do mention however that the more valuable the item, the rarer it will be.

I'll take that as a no then. It's not an equal 1 in 8 chance. Thank you Tina.

[B0oN]

Tina Benoit, on 21 July 2016 - 12:20 PM, said:

Unfortunately I can't give you an answer to this as we don't share Supply Cache statistics..
Sorry!

Edit: The Patch Notes do mention however that the more valuable the item, the rarer it will be.

Afraid of the reaction if you´d be inclined to do so ?
...

[Big Tin Man]

B0oN, on 21 July 2016 - 12:45 PM, said:

Afraid of the reaction if you´d be inclined to do so ?
...

The math is probably more complicated than that. It's probably that a given supply cache has been determined similar to a grab-bag event, and the other 7 items are just fluff. Or they use some kind of very complex math that regenerates based upon the value of the items in a supply cache so there isn't a straight answer.

Either way, I got the answer I was looking for.

Edited by Big Tin Man, 21 July 2016 - 12:49 PM.

[Revis Volek]

B0oN, on 21 July 2016 - 12:45 PM, said:

Afraid of the reaction if you´d be inclined to do so ?
...

AS inclined as a Casino is to give out their odds on their slots.


Sounds like a great way to let gamblers steal your money.

[Mister Blastman]

[Johnny Z]

Bishop Steiner, on 21 July 2016 - 12:07 PM, said:

well we are a bunch of big scary neckbeards, so I guess we are intimidating?

Rampage, on 21 July 2016 - 12:14 PM, said:

Nah, just smelly.

[Elizander]

I suspect that the items in the cache are already categorized/tagged by rarity. We can go with common, uncommon and rare and each 'slot' in the cache has a designated value (common/uncommon/rare) with a set chance for each slot.

If I were to guess, your chance for the rare would probably be 1%, 9% for the uncommon and 15% for each common. All speculation, of course. :3

[cazidin]

Tina Benoit, on 21 July 2016 - 12:20 PM, said:

Unfortunately I can't give you an answer to this as we don't share Supply Cache statistics..
Sorry!

Edit: The Patch Notes do mention however that the more valuable the item, the rarer it will be.

Tina. If you keep this up, we might begin to think that PGI truly reads their own forums. Keep it up.

[-Natural Selection-]

Tina Benoit, on 21 July 2016 - 12:20 PM, said:

Unfortunately I can't give you an answer to this as we don't share Supply Cache statistics..
Sorry!

Edit: The Patch Notes do mention however that the more valuable the item, the rarer it will be.

So you are asking people to drop $ on something but will not tell them if the chances are weighted?

But the "rare item" statement seems to imply the chance of it being in a box are fewer, not a less % of winning it during the roll.

Edited by Mickey Knoxx, 21 July 2016 - 01:11 PM.