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Are Supply Caches Rigged To Always Give The Least Desireable Reward?


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#61 QuickSpoon

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Posted 02 December 2016 - 03:04 AM

Hello.
My two cents (yeah I know I'm late to the party):

I think the caches is a fun thing. Its not a scam as you can get them for free.

The problem for me was that it implied you get a decent chance to get something like 1/6 for that mech.

If that was the case it'd be worth it to buy caches for real money (kinda) at least I could see some value in it.

Afterwards there was that patch that gave the items in the cache colors. And? I don't even know what that ment. Its all paranoi at this point.
Does it mean that commons are more prone to be in the cache? Or does it say to the player "Hey, SRM6 are a common thing and thats all".

Can't you just say:

A cache drops random items, and rare items are more unlikely to be won.

Thats all.

And there would be everything transparent and civil. But instead we got this stupid situation that it looks like shifty underplay scam.

That makes me a sad panda mech.
:(

#62 KoalaBrownie

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Posted 02 December 2016 - 06:29 PM

Since replying, I've gotten a few good prizes. I got 1000 MC once, at least one mech bay, some premium time, and so forth.
There is a lot of garbage though unfortunately. Clan Narc. Medium Laser. Omnipods for mechs I don't have and will never buy. Etcetera.

#63 L1f3H4ck

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Posted 03 December 2016 - 09:06 AM

https://youtu.be/MuTj7P0LJ4M

Kana opening 50 of them and running the numbers on it. It's not a 1 in 8 chance, you're alway more likely to get a common reward, no matter how many rares are displayed.

#64 Kyle Travis

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Posted 03 December 2016 - 12:39 PM

only ever used free spins - mostly stuff I donl;t need but out of about 12 spins got a Mech bay.

#65 martillo

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:09 AM

i have not heard of anyone getting a mechbay or mech at that, i choosed 6 caches out all of mines that had the most good goodies and i still got crap, so i stopped opening cache with my mc

#66 Paigan

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:20 AM

I got so far (that I can remember)
- 500 MC
- 50 MC
- 1000 MC
- Mechbay
- unwanted crap worth some millions CB in total.

I have some screenshots of it and am too lazy to upload. But screenshots could be faked anyway.

I had about 22 keys or so of which I only bought 3. The rest was from events.

My suggestion:
- Think VERY good about which cache to open and which not. Only a few caches are really worth it. I.e. those with 2 or 3 MC-worth items. Do sell the rest. Don't trick yourself into hoping for the one reasonable item among 7 crappy ones.
- Remember that 50 common MC are just as lucrative as 1000 ultra rare MC. We lack a built-in sense for probability. We have to emulate it by reason to make good decisions.
- Don't see it as a one time gamble that has to succeed or you're pissed. See it as opening 10, 20 lucrative caches in a row and see what you get out of it.

Edited by Paigan, 12 December 2016 - 10:22 AM.


#67 NextGame

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:24 AM

View PostVellron2005, on 27 July 2016 - 11:52 PM, said:


I invite you to share your opened cache experiences, so let's see if the supply caches are truly worth spending MC on..



I've only been playing for the last week or so, since taking a break for the last 6-8 months, i've had maybe 10 supply caches and got a highlander iic from one of them. The rewards look like garbage other than mechs though, although there was also a potential 1000mc reward in the pack that gave me the highlander.

Edited by NextGame, 12 December 2016 - 10:24 AM.


#68 Khalcruth

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:35 AM

I have to wonder - what happens when the skill tree change comes into effect (something like February), and modules are no longer in the game?

I have something like 70 supply crates now, never opened any of them. Never even looked at the contents. Presumably, some of those, if I looked at them, have possibility of granting a module. What happens if I do not open / look at any of them until after the skill tree patch? Will the module prizes be replaced by a different prize?

#69 Johnny Z

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:40 AM

Latest update, from yesterday.

Had 10 packs all with MC, I sell the ones without MC since I don't need creds.

So got 10 keys for 250 MC.

Won.

300 MC

3 days Premium time. (awesome because using hero and that is 60% credit bonus and doing the leader board making tons of creds)

About 5 mill creds.

Note: The 50 MC packs are easy to win MC mostly but the higher ones I have never won yet.

Edited by Johnny Z, 12 December 2016 - 10:48 AM.


#70 Murphy7

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:48 AM

I have not purchased any keys for supply caches, and yet own about 16 or so keys currently from various events.

I only try opening a cache if it contains a mech that I do not already own.

I have never won a mech, and have never done better than an uncommon prize amongst the selections.

Most supply caches are a 50k cbill booster for me. :)

#71 Johnny Z

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:51 AM

If a person wanted to be really smart about it then open only the packs with both MC and keys in the same one.

#72 HauptmanT

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 12:22 PM

I've opened roughly 50 of them with bought keys. Complete guestimation, I suppose I could look up my purchase history and see for sure, but I wont bother.

so that is 5 x 250mc = 1,250mc total.

I have won 2 mech bays for sure (possibly 3) = 600-900mc
Maybe a week total of days, = 1000mc
2 cockpit items = 1500mc (but I never would have spent that)
And quite a few keys and 50mc wins, which I am counting as free spins, not included as the 50.

Now excluding all the millions of c-bills, if I did in fact win 3 mech bays, that almost completely recoups the cost with just the small mc rewards. But the total won days, if I would have purchased them, would almost do that by itself.

In short, I dont feel like I got robbed, or wasted the mc, as I'm a poor-bastaad, and need every c-bill I can get, where'as tossing a $20 here or there into the game isnt an issue, in moderation. I can go without that extra Starbuck's Machiatto or Red's Wicked Apple couple times a week.

However, my mc pool is at about 500 after the cyber monday sale, so I havent bought more keys since. Need that mc for paint jobs and such, as my purchasses have been websight mech packs lately... you know... Marauder IIC! Which do not include mc. So, I'll likely sit on whatever caches I get, until I can toss in another steam card for mc (which will happen after roughly 7 more paint jobs).

Edited by HauptmanT, 12 December 2016 - 12:36 PM.


#73 Dimento Graven

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 12:42 PM

View PostDovisKhan, on 27 July 2016 - 11:54 PM, said:

I got 250k cbills several times and a lump of coal, a lump of coal...
OMFG!!! LOL!

#74 Felicitatem Parco

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 12:48 PM

I have received modules, Mechbays, and MC rewards. Those are not Bottom Tier in any regard

#75 Davegt27

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 01:18 PM

I got a kit fox arm one time

I have 57 supply caches right now

Edited by Davegt27, 12 December 2016 - 01:19 PM.


#76 50 50

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 01:19 PM

I was more concerned when I got 3 identical crates and won the same thing 3 times.

#77 TVMA Doc

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 05:13 PM

View Postsneeking, on 28 July 2016 - 12:52 AM, said:

I opened one with a free key that was given to me after a match for reasons unknown, i own no clan mechs so naturally it gave me the omni pod !

I sold that and the remaining crates....

I will not be sucked in by this game feature !


I've opened about ten, also exclusively from the free keys from tourneys, and have always received the most useless item inside.

#78 Elessar

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Posted 13 December 2016 - 01:39 AM

Well, it seems obvious that the chance is tied to the rarity that is displayed for the parts.
For example:
Common = 30%
Uncommon = 15%
Rare = 3%
Ultra Rare = 1%

(which would fit into the setup I currently see in a supply cache: 2 Common, 2 Uncommon, 3 Rare, 1 Ultra Rare -> 2*30+2*15+3*3+1*1 = 100%)

So, according to my assumed setup, you have 90% probability to get one of the 4 common or uncommon parts ... but only 10% probability to get one of the 4 parts that are rare or ultra rare

Edited by Elessar, 13 December 2016 - 01:45 AM.


#79 The Unstoppable Puggernaut

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Posted 13 December 2016 - 01:54 AM

I really wish they scrap this idea and give something that actually rewards people. It's just pure garbage, and I've had a mechbay and some small PT out of it. Asides that, garbage.

#80 Ascaloth

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Posted 14 December 2016 - 09:09 AM

Totally rigged. I wanted that sweet AMS and they gave me this Jenner K. What do I do with a Jenner K???


Posted Image

Edited by Ascaloth, 14 December 2016 - 09:09 AM.






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