55 replies to this topic

[Cy Mitchell]

Just sell them. It is a nice little 50K salvage bonus. Cuts down on the frustration.

I have five keys from events and a MC purchase and I still just sell them.

[Mudhutwarrior]

The only winning move is not to play.

[Bilbo]

KodiakGW, on 12 August 2016 - 07:03 AM, said:

DON'T OPEN ANY UNTIL AFTER THIS MONTH'S PATCH!!!

Too late for OP, but anyone who might read this before opening any. Yes, the crappiest items are more heavily weighted to win. Something that SHOULD HAVE been explained properly in the beginning. They have already stated that we are going to get a better idea of the rarity of the item in the cache with this patch. What exactly that means, we will see. But, I'm not opening any until after the patch. Even with the free keys.

You realize that they aren't changing the chances of getting a particular item, right? They are just going to do a better job of showing you how bad an idea opening one is. Might as well open the ones you got any free keys for now.

[KodiakGW]

MoonUnitBeta, on 12 August 2016 - 07:11 AM, said:

I don't really get this... It should be pretty much always assumed that this is the case. Why did they have to clarify that glass is transparent?

Really? And how many players have posted thinking that every item in the cache was an even 1:8 chance of winning. I've seen at least 6 threads started the same way this one was. I KNEW it wasn't from the first few players who said they noticed a trend, and therefore did not open or sell any I got. Players are thinking 1:8 is the case, and getting pissed because it turns out it is not. I'm just trying to make sure some other sucker does not think it is 1:8 when a patch is coming that will HOPEFULLY clarify which items they are more likely to win.

You know, like having the odds of winning a specific prize you see printed on the back of EVERY legitimate scratcher ticket??? Stop trying to defend a bad implementation, when they basically admitted it was bad by saying that they are patching it.

Bilbo, on 12 August 2016 - 07:52 AM, said:

You realize that they aren't changing the chances of getting a particular item, right? They are just going to do a better job of showing you how bad an idea opening one is. Might as well open the ones you got any free keys for now.

I'm not stupid. Of course I know it won't change the odds. I do know exactly what you said, after the patch I'll know which ones to take the chance on opening with my free keys, and sell the others. Right now I am sitting on 3 free keys, and 6 caches. Most of them have 3 crap items, and 5 items I wouldn't mind winning. A couple are just the opposite. But, the couple that are the opposite may have decent chances of winning the items I want. I don't know, and won't know until after the patch (HOPEFULLY). So I'm warning anyone reading this thread to not open until after the patch.

[FuhNuGi]

Piney, on 12 August 2016 - 05:43 AM, said:

I've unlocked a few for grins and giggles, but I usually just sell mine.

+1

Seriously, it is a gamble, but I feel PGI could both increase the chance of higher value items being won as well as list a few more choice items in the draw. The items up for winning are items you can typically buy with a few c-bills, rarely do you get a win with an MC only item... I doubt it would wreck the game economy to be a little more generous in the wins (which may encourage people to open more crates, which would sell more keys...).
Right now, it just seems kind of gimmicky. Give up real money for something you can buy (and not need) with c-bills in game... no thanks, just give me the 50k

[Mudhutwarrior]

A while back someone posted a vid from developers discussing their experience with crates. They found that if the majority opened didn't have value they would see a major backlash and poor sales over time.

Once again PGI never got the memo.

That's pretty much it in a nutshell.

[RisTanA]

Sonebody did some data collection on this. As I am on my phone I don't havr the link. But it details a general estimate of caches based on player results. The rarer items come out at about a 10% or lower rate; so while it isnt too high, it is actually higher than it feels. the lower cost items, generally weapons, have about a 40% drop rate.

If you want a good idea of what you are going to get, try to think of everything in mc value (converting the weapons cbil price to mc value) and them pick the lowest two items. You have about a 60% chance to pull those items.

While this system isnt the greatest, it helps to think about what you are most likely going to pull from a cache rather than what you can pull from a cache.

My best advice for people who sre going to roll on the caches is to discard everything that has really poor base rolls, such as the clan ac2 and roll for things that are worth at least a few 100k cbills. In addition if you want if you really want just a big reward i suggest auto rolling on everything that has a mech, module or xl engine while discarding the rest.

Doing this with about 40 caches (of ehich i rolled on about 25) I pulled about 15-20 mil worth of stuff i wanted from the caches including a 6 mil module (same rarity as mech)

tl;dr know what you are rolling on.

[WarPickle]

I know it's meant to give you crap and not the good stuff... I got them with my MC purchases so I opened them and I have been opening them to plug stats into the site I mentioned...

my complaint is it's mostly crap given and I understand this... I just wish the odds of it spreading said crap items was better....

I mean seriously there are 51 supply cache possibilities and by some miracle I got the same exact four twice... I think randomness should not give me four certain caches in a row and then the next four are exactly the same in the exact same order...

Read my post before you comment... I'm complaining about them not spreading the crap evenly.. I know I'm gonna win crap.. I never even get my hopes up.. just opening them because I buy keys with leftover or won mc...

Again I don't even expect to win anything worthwhile.. not my goal.. my only goal is to add to that site to see the odds.... but out of 30 or so caches that I opened I've never received a mech, premium time, or a module.... I do get srm6... lasers... an occasional bap.. erppcs .... ac's.... thank god I never win the cockpit items.. worthless to me and I can't sell them.... I'm fine with the pitiful junk I get... some I use, most I sell

Just please let me "win" some different useless item for once.. it's getting boring....blah blah bla laser blah bla bla ac... bla bla blah srm.... add some one shot paint or camo, maybe add a 6 pack of flamers or mg's

RisTanA, on 12 August 2016 - 09:45 AM, said:

Sonebody did some data collection on this. As I am on my phone I don't havr the link. But it details a general estimate of caches based on player results. The rarer items come out at about a 10% or lower rate; so while it isnt too high, it is actually higher than it feels. the lower cost items, generally weapons, have about a 40% drop rate.

If you want a good idea of what you are going to get, try to think of everything in mc value (converting the weapons cbil price to mc value) and them pick the lowest two items. You have about a 60% chance to pull those items.

While this system isnt the greatest, it helps to think about what you are most likely going to pull from a cache rather than what you can pull from a cache.

My best advice for people who sre going to roll on the caches is to discard everything that has really poor base rolls, such as the clan ac2 and roll for things that are worth at least a few 100k cbills. In addition if you want if you really want just a big reward i suggest auto rolling on everything that has a mech, module or xl engine while discarding the rest.

Doing this with about 40 caches (of ehich i rolled on about 25) I pulled about 15-20 mil worth of stuff i wanted from the caches including a 6 mil module (same rarity as mech)

tl;dr know what you are rolling on.

Probably the site I listed.. I am one of the people adding to the stats so you can gamble responsibly

[RisTanA]

please excuse any typos in my last message.

[RisTanA]

I would also like to add, that if i did not roll on those 40 caches at all, i would have had gained 2 million and saved 1k mc. Opening 25 got me 15-20 million worth of stuff at the cost of 1k mc. If I were to sell the winnings that would net me 7 to 10 million funds.

[Hotthedd]

The Nerf Bat, on 12 August 2016 - 07:02 AM, said:

In casinos, the odds are always stacked in the house favor with the exception of blackjack. Of course if you play blackjack too well, you might be asked to leave the property.

The blackjack odds favor the dealer, more so with more players against one dealer. Believe it or not, the best odds for the player in a casino is the craps table.

[Felicitatem Parco]

GRiPSViGiL, on 12 August 2016 - 05:43 AM, said:

Your first problem was giving PGI money.

Your second was not understanding how gambling works.

Um, wrong. First mistake was thinking that the free extra stuff you received was somehow costing you money. The second mistake was insulting PGI for giving you free stuff that wasn't as good as the free stuff you assume to have deserved.

It's free stuff. Free. How is free stuff bad? Only a Bad can tell you the answer to that question because most recent folk accept free stuff as a good thing, even if it's a small amount of free stuff.

I bet you're the kind of people who would get upset at Nike if they gave you a free can of shoe waterproofer with the purchase of shoes because it's only a 4oz can when you clearly deserve a free 8oz can.

Edited by Prosperity Park, 12 August 2016 - 10:15 AM.

[Hotthedd]

Prosperity Park, on 12 August 2016 - 10:14 AM, said:

Um, wrong. First mistake was thinking that the free extra stuff you received was somehow costing you money. The second mistake was insulting PGI for giving you free stuff that wasn't as good as the free stuff you assume to have deserved.

It's free stuff. Free. How is free stuff bad? Only a Bad can tell you the answer to that question because most recent folk accept free stuff as a good thing, even if it's a small amount of free stuff.

I bet you're the kind of people who would get upset at Nike if they gave you a free can of shoe waterproofer with the purchase of shoes because it's only a 4oz can when you clearly deserve a free 8oz can.

If the cache keys cost MC, it isn't "free" anything...

[Saint Scarlett Johan]

I've opened 20 caches, the item of the highest value I've gotten was two cLPLs. And I think I can sell those for 350,000 CBills.

This is gambling through and through. It sucks that often the caches have nothing of value as all of the ones I opened had at least a minimum of a weeks Premium Time or a large value of MC.

Of the twenty times, I've won items ranging from between 75,000 CBills to about 350,000 CBills. Every item I've won has been either a weapons or an omnipod.

As someone that USED to gamble and understands the first rule of gambling (THE HOUSE ALWAYS WINS), I can clearly see where PGI didn't get this right: They have the odds so in their favor that after a while, the vast majority of people will stop altogether. The Casinos have it down to a level of science that the gamblers are winning just enough to keep them hooked, but are losing in the long run.

Take it from someone that's always left a Casino with more than they brought, just use your free keys and sell the rest.

Hotthedd, on 12 August 2016 - 10:26 AM, said:

If the cache keys cost MC, it isn't "free" anything...

It's 50k free CBills.

Prosperity Park, on 12 August 2016 - 10:14 AM, said:

Um, wrong. First mistake was thinking that the free extra stuff you received was somehow costing you money. The second mistake was insulting PGI for giving you free stuff that wasn't as good as the free stuff you assume to have deserved.

It's free stuff. Free. How is free stuff bad? Only a Bad can tell you the answer to that question because most recent folk accept free stuff as a good thing, even if it's a small amount of free stuff.

I bet you're the kind of people who would get upset at Nike if they gave you a free can of shoe waterproofer with the purchase of shoes because it's only a 4oz can when you clearly deserve a free 8oz can.

I lol'ed

[Mechwarrior1441491]

it can be better. let us pick a mech in a weight class won. Mechs don't appeal to people who have many, with odds in their favour that they already own the one in the cache.

Where are people getting free MC to spend on their free cache keys, to open their free cache?

Edited by Mechwarrior1441491, 12 August 2016 - 10:40 AM.

[Narcissistic Martyr]

Yosharian, on 12 August 2016 - 05:40 AM, said:

So essentially you're expressing surprise that gambling doesn't allow you to win easily?

Although considering PGI only puts stuff in there that they aren't actually selling for MC on a regular basis it wouldn't hurt to give out better prizes to rake in some sweet MC from the sale of keys.

[MoonUnitBeta]

KodiakGW, on 12 August 2016 - 08:41 AM, said:

Really? And how many players have posted thinking that every item in the cache was an even 1:8 chance of winning. I've seen at least 6 threads started the same way this one was. I KNEW it wasn't from the first few players who said they noticed a trend, and therefore did not open or sell any I got. Players are thinking 1:8 is the case, and getting pissed because it turns out it is not. I'm just trying to make sure some other sucker does not think it is 1:8 when a patch is coming that will HOPEFULLY clarify which items they are more likely to win.

Wow, really, 6 threads? It doesn’t mean much coming from this short-sighted forum. Common sense isn’t all that common I suppose.


It’s expected because PGI is a business, not a fundraiser. Any times there’s a smaller value available in gambling, you can always assume that greater values will be far less common, far less common than the 1:8 ratio. That’s how it works. That's how they make their money. No one should be surprised, or confused, or upset. If you're upset, you're upset for being so naive.

Edited by MoonUnitBeta, 12 August 2016 - 11:30 AM.

[GRiPSViGiL]

Prosperity Park, on 12 August 2016 - 10:14 AM, said:

Um, wrong. First mistake was thinking that the free extra stuff you received was somehow costing you money. The second mistake was insulting PGI for giving you free stuff that wasn't as good as the free stuff you assume to have deserved.

It's free stuff. Free. How is free stuff bad? Only a Bad can tell you the answer to that question because most recent folk accept free stuff as a good thing, even if it's a small amount of free stuff.

I bet you're the kind of people who would get upset at Nike if they gave you a free can of shoe waterproofer with the purchase of shoes because it's only a 4oz can when you clearly deserve a free 8oz can.

He bought "2 of the 6.95 mc" he clearly paid for the keys to open the caches. Yes giving PGI money at this point is stupid.

Edited by GRiPSViGiL, 12 August 2016 - 10:54 AM.

[DrxAbstract]

Yosharian, on 12 August 2016 - 05:40 AM, said:

So essentially you're expressing surprise that gambling doesn't allow you to win easily?

I'd say frustration and disappointment rather than surprise. /shrug

[LordNothing]

Yosharian, on 12 August 2016 - 05:40 AM, said:

So essentially you're expressing surprise that gambling doesn't allow you to win easily?

at least when you go to vegas, the slot machine sometimes jingles.