After doing 14 SC's in a row and having someone also do 2, I can now tell you that in all cases you will get the shittiest thing available! Open a cache and look at the shittiest thing you can get. This is like streak, AMS, 100k c-bills and things like that, and put stuff like CP items, mechs, bays and higher valued weapons on the other. When you look and organise through your caches pick the worse item you can have, pick 2 if it is hard (like 100k cbills and an AMS) you will get 1 of those 2. All supply caches so far I have been able to tell exactly which item or which 2 possibilities I am getting, the graphic also seems to jump when it is stopping on something good to something bad (me and some group members all had the same experience).... so how does this system work? Cause it is kind of BS to make people get keys and win caches while not even having a fair chance of winning 1 of the 8 items, but it is more like 1 of 1 or 1 of 2 items!
I do not have a lot of money so all keys I have purchased and won are now wasted because of this SC scam, but I wondered if more people notice this and if I should actually start shooting evidence for this... Please give it a go yourself and see.
9
Supply Cache Scam/rigged?
Started by Glippi, Aug 21 2016 03:28 AM
78 replies to this topic
#2
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- The Patron Saint
- 533 posts
Member
- LocationBetween Chair and Keyboard
Posted 21 August 2016 - 03:43 AM
Sorry to rain on your parade, but you are wrong.
It was NEVER stated anywhere that you have a 1 in 8 chance of winning an item, in fact it was clearly stated on Twitter and on these very forums that the chances ARE NOT equal, higher value items having a lower chance of dropping.
On the personnal anecdote side of things, I've opened more than 100 caches at the moment, and I never had the "lowest of the low" item, the only "bad" thing I got until now is a Clan AC2, that still sold for more than 50K CBills.
I've even had some caches with the exact same contents, and got different items from those.
The only thing you are right about is that it is a lottery ... and like all lotteries, the big prizes have a smaller chance of dropping.
On top of that, in the next patch we'll have colour codes denoting the rarity of the items, as you can read in the patch notes.
TL;DR : nope, not a scam, working as advertised and intended.
It was NEVER stated anywhere that you have a 1 in 8 chance of winning an item, in fact it was clearly stated on Twitter and on these very forums that the chances ARE NOT equal, higher value items having a lower chance of dropping.
On the personnal anecdote side of things, I've opened more than 100 caches at the moment, and I never had the "lowest of the low" item, the only "bad" thing I got until now is a Clan AC2, that still sold for more than 50K CBills.
I've even had some caches with the exact same contents, and got different items from those.
The only thing you are right about is that it is a lottery ... and like all lotteries, the big prizes have a smaller chance of dropping.
On top of that, in the next patch we'll have colour codes denoting the rarity of the items, as you can read in the patch notes.
TL;DR : nope, not a scam, working as advertised and intended.
Edited by Lorcryst NySell, 21 August 2016 - 03:44 AM.
#3
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- Moderate Giver
- 2 posts
Rookie
Posted 21 August 2016 - 03:54 AM
Ok, so experiences are different, then I will leave the topic and stop opening the caches as it seems to be something for the rich only and then there are those that are fortunate (like you)....
I thought it was a chance system and I am not someone who takes time on reading into this stuff, just wanted to ask and share my experience so far! But it seems selling them is the best way to go then!
The system itself is a bit off then, the boxes for the items with smaller chance should then also be smaller on the wheel or something, so people can see what they actually have in chance instead of making it look like a 1 out of 8, most people do not read and will feel scammed, cause they will treat is as roulette or wheel of fortune where everything on the wheel has an equal chance (as it should when being displayed as such).....
But let's not make a big fuzz about how things should look and thank you for explaining the error. It works as advertised, it is just really unclear if you did not read the advertisement notes and all.
TL;DR : Thanks for explaining, wish graphics of SC when opening would represent what you said (chance wise)
I thought it was a chance system and I am not someone who takes time on reading into this stuff, just wanted to ask and share my experience so far! But it seems selling them is the best way to go then!
The system itself is a bit off then, the boxes for the items with smaller chance should then also be smaller on the wheel or something, so people can see what they actually have in chance instead of making it look like a 1 out of 8, most people do not read and will feel scammed, cause they will treat is as roulette or wheel of fortune where everything on the wheel has an equal chance (as it should when being displayed as such).....
But let's not make a big fuzz about how things should look and thank you for explaining the error. It works as advertised, it is just really unclear if you did not read the advertisement notes and all.
TL;DR : Thanks for explaining, wish graphics of SC when opening would represent what you said (chance wise)
Edited by Glippi, 21 August 2016 - 04:00 AM.
#4
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- 629 posts
Member
Posted 21 August 2016 - 04:27 AM
so they are basically the same as any generic "crate" from any other game. What a surprise.......
Word of advice, never ever be excited about opening crates, they are built to keep you in suspense with some spinny wheel or cool visuals that give you the impression of being "so close" to getting a high value item. It's all just for show, an illusion to trick you. Sure there is always a CHANCE to get the good item but that's just it, it's a chance, a gamble, a low probability event.
And also, never ever EVER spend money on loot crates. Stop promoting these things. Just stop it.
Word of advice, never ever be excited about opening crates, they are built to keep you in suspense with some spinny wheel or cool visuals that give you the impression of being "so close" to getting a high value item. It's all just for show, an illusion to trick you. Sure there is always a CHANCE to get the good item but that's just it, it's a chance, a gamble, a low probability event.
And also, never ever EVER spend money on loot crates. Stop promoting these things. Just stop it.
#5
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- The Messenger
- 362 posts
Member
Posted 21 August 2016 - 05:16 AM
Just had a bit of a laugh with two keys I got from the event.
I had 8 caches on hand and the best two were identical. They were:
x3 supply keys
ER PPC
1,000 MC
250,000cbills
x10 Air strike
Clan Active Probe
EBJ-B right side torso omnipod
Highlander II-C
First one got the than Active Probe, second one the EBJ omnipod.
lol
I had 8 caches on hand and the best two were identical. They were:
x3 supply keys
ER PPC
1,000 MC
250,000cbills
x10 Air strike
Clan Active Probe
EBJ-B right side torso omnipod
Highlander II-C
First one got the than Active Probe, second one the EBJ omnipod.
lol
#6
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- Bad Company
- 1,581 posts
Member
Posted 21 August 2016 - 05:22 AM
Just open the ones where the worst item is 250k or something.
#7
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- 3,386 posts
Member
- LocationIn a water-rights dispute with a Beaver
Posted 21 August 2016 - 05:28 AM
Confirmation bias?
#8
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- 2,975 posts
Member
- LocationVancouver, BC
Posted 21 August 2016 - 05:31 AM
If you need C-Bills, the caches are fantastic... if you're swimming in C-bills... not so much.
#9
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- Bad Company
- 34 posts
Member
Posted 21 August 2016 - 05:43 AM
Here is a quick question on the supply caches. I've seen one person comment that they won a Summoner and that's the only person I've seen mention winning a mech. Out of a lot of supply caches I won a mech bay, no other MC costing items. I know other people have won mech bays as well.
Has anyone ever won the supply cache keys?
Has anyone ever any of the cockpit items?
Out of all the threads I don't think I've ever seen someone win any of those.
Has anyone ever won the supply cache keys?
Has anyone ever any of the cockpit items?
Out of all the threads I don't think I've ever seen someone win any of those.
#10
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- 839 posts
Member
- LocationUnited States
Posted 21 August 2016 - 06:08 AM
I've gotten the lump of coal both times I saw it in the cache and I've seen the generic dog tags once or twice as well.
Use MC awarded from the events to buy the mechbay outright. Use any remaining "free" mc to pickup a key or two, or only use free keys to open them. Don't spend money on MC, then buy keys to open caches, everything you get will feel like a loss because the MC rewards are very low chance to get.
Mechbays are 300MC, that's enough for 12 cache keys. Chances are you won't get a mechbay in that many caches. You might see a couple as possible wins but the chances of winning one are very rare.
The only way the Cbills earnings are a good thing from caches, is to compare it to the dreadfully horrible MC-Cbill conversation rate established when buying a Cbill bundle. There are mechs you can purchase on sale for MC, then sell them back at a 50% loss when the sale ends, and you come out ahead of the MC/Cbills ratio offered in the store. That's how bad the ratio is. Boasting the cache offer better rewards than the bundle is disingenous. That's like saying my mountain bike gets better gas milage than my car, so paying the same price for the bike that I would for the car must mean its a great deal.
Use MC awarded from the events to buy the mechbay outright. Use any remaining "free" mc to pickup a key or two, or only use free keys to open them. Don't spend money on MC, then buy keys to open caches, everything you get will feel like a loss because the MC rewards are very low chance to get.
Mechbays are 300MC, that's enough for 12 cache keys. Chances are you won't get a mechbay in that many caches. You might see a couple as possible wins but the chances of winning one are very rare.
The only way the Cbills earnings are a good thing from caches, is to compare it to the dreadfully horrible MC-Cbill conversation rate established when buying a Cbill bundle. There are mechs you can purchase on sale for MC, then sell them back at a 50% loss when the sale ends, and you come out ahead of the MC/Cbills ratio offered in the store. That's how bad the ratio is. Boasting the cache offer better rewards than the bundle is disingenous. That's like saying my mountain bike gets better gas milage than my car, so paying the same price for the bike that I would for the car must mean its a great deal.
#11
Posted 21 August 2016 - 06:29 AM
Glippi, on 21 August 2016 - 03:28 AM, said:
After doing 14 SC's in a row and having someone also do 2, I can now tell you that in all cases you will get the shittiest thing available! Open a cache and look at the shittiest thing you can get. This is like streak, AMS, 100k c-bills and things like that, and put stuff like CP items, mechs, bays and higher valued weapons on the other. When you look and organise through your caches pick the worse item you can have, pick 2 if it is hard (like 100k cbills and an AMS) you will get 1 of those 2. All supply caches so far I have been able to tell exactly which item or which 2 possibilities I am getting, the graphic also seems to jump when it is stopping on something good to something bad (me and some group members all had the same experience).... so how does this system work? Cause it is kind of BS to make people get keys and win caches while not even having a fair chance of winning 1 of the 8 items, but it is more like 1 of 1 or 1 of 2 items!
I do not have a lot of money so all keys I have purchased and won are now wasted because of this SC scam, but I wondered if more people notice this and if I should actually start shooting evidence for this... Please give it a go yourself and see.
I do not have a lot of money so all keys I have purchased and won are now wasted because of this SC scam, but I wondered if more people notice this and if I should actually start shooting evidence for this... Please give it a go yourself and see.
Soooo, you expect to win the lottery every time you buy a ticket? Do you expect to draw a Royal Straight Flush every time you play poker? Do you expect to get Head's every time you flip a coin?
#12
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- Knight Errant
- 110 posts
Member
- LocationSome place far away
Posted 21 August 2016 - 06:30 AM
Lorcryst NySell, on 21 August 2016 - 03:43 AM, said:
Sorry to rain on your parade, but you are wrong.
It was NEVER stated anywhere that you have a 1 in 8 chance of winning an item, in fact it was clearly stated on Twitter and on these very forums that the chances ARE NOT equal, higher value items having a lower chance of dropping.
On the personnal anecdote side of things, I've opened more than 100 caches at the moment, and I never had the "lowest of the low" item, the only "bad" thing I got until now is a Clan AC2, that still sold for more than 50K CBills.
I've even had some caches with the exact same contents, and got different items from those.
The only thing you are right about is that it is a lottery ... and like all lotteries, the big prizes have a smaller chance of dropping.
On top of that, in the next patch we'll have colour codes denoting the rarity of the items, as you can read in the patch notes.
TL;DR : nope, not a scam, working as advertised and intended.
It was NEVER stated anywhere that you have a 1 in 8 chance of winning an item, in fact it was clearly stated on Twitter and on these very forums that the chances ARE NOT equal, higher value items having a lower chance of dropping.
On the personnal anecdote side of things, I've opened more than 100 caches at the moment, and I never had the "lowest of the low" item, the only "bad" thing I got until now is a Clan AC2, that still sold for more than 50K CBills.
I've even had some caches with the exact same contents, and got different items from those.
The only thing you are right about is that it is a lottery ... and like all lotteries, the big prizes have a smaller chance of dropping.
On top of that, in the next patch we'll have colour codes denoting the rarity of the items, as you can read in the patch notes.
TL;DR : nope, not a scam, working as advertised and intended.
Calling BS.
#13
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- Sho-sa
- 464 posts
Member
- LocationA Vindicator cockpit near you
Posted 21 August 2016 - 06:34 AM
Lorcryst NySell, on 21 August 2016 - 03:43 AM, said:
It was NEVER stated anywhere that you have a 1 in 8 chance of winning an item, in fact it was clearly stated on Twitter and on these very forums that the chances ARE NOT equal, higher value items having a lower chance of dropping.
Not every player reads the forums or follows Russ twitter. That information is the kind of thing that should be explained inside the game, no other sources involved. ATM the UI only shows 8 items without any other information, misleading the players to believe chances are equal between the shown items.
Ofc, when players learn that chances are not equal, they feel scammed.
SavageConvoy, on 21 August 2016 - 05:43 AM, said:
Has anyone ever won the supply cache keys?
Has anyone ever any of the cockpit items?
Has anyone ever any of the cockpit items?
I won this like half an hour ago (btw it's not the x3
). Any other cache i unlocked had weapons.
Spoiler
#14
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- Big Daddy
- 6,271 posts
Member
Posted 21 August 2016 - 06:36 AM
SavageConvoy, on 21 August 2016 - 05:43 AM, said:
Has anyone ever won the supply cache keys?
Has anyone ever any of the cockpit items?
Out of all the threads I don't think I've ever seen someone win any of those.
Has anyone ever any of the cockpit items?
Out of all the threads I don't think I've ever seen someone win any of those.
Yes. Single keys and 3 packs.
THIS...yesterday from one of the personal challenge caches... (and I didn't own one of these yet)
Coolant, on 21 August 2016 - 06:29 AM, said:
Do you expect to get Head's every time you flip a coin?
Or every time you go on a date with a girl...
#15
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- 2,831 posts
Member
Posted 21 August 2016 - 07:30 AM
Glippi, on 21 August 2016 - 03:28 AM, said:
After doing 14 SC's in a row and having someone also do 2, I can now tell you that in all cases you will get the shittiest thing available! Open a cache and look at the shittiest thing you can get. This is like streak, AMS, 100k c-bills and things like that, and put stuff like CP items, mechs, bays and higher valued weapons on the other. When you look and organise through your caches pick the worse item you can have, pick 2 if it is hard (like 100k cbills and an AMS) you will get 1 of those 2. All supply caches so far I have been able to tell exactly which item or which 2 possibilities I am getting, the graphic also seems to jump when it is stopping on something good to something bad (me and some group members all had the same experience).... so how does this system work? Cause it is kind of BS to make people get keys and win caches while not even having a fair chance of winning 1 of the 8 items, but it is more like 1 of 1 or 1 of 2 items!
I do not have a lot of money so all keys I have purchased and won are now wasted because of this SC scam, but I wondered if more people notice this and if I should actually start shooting evidence for this... Please give it a go yourself and see.
I do not have a lot of money so all keys I have purchased and won are now wasted because of this SC scam, but I wondered if more people notice this and if I should actually start shooting evidence for this... Please give it a go yourself and see.
You literally just explained how every single 'chance' item with varying degrees of rarity works.
Blind Boxes - The most sought after item is ultra rare (or vice versa the rarest item is most sough after) and you have practically **** chance to get it.
Gumball machine/Gachapon - Same thing, you have a high chance of getting a common item and a rare chance to get something good.
Gambling machines - You have a low chance of rolling/spinning/drawing a high win, and a somewhat split chance (depending on machine) of varying wins or a loss.
If you think this is a scam, please shut off your computer and experience the real world.
#16
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- The 1 Percent
- 4,183 posts
Member
- LocationThe perimieter, out here there are no stars.
Posted 21 August 2016 - 07:50 AM
Yes its a scam and no I will never buy a key.
#18
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- 2,831 posts
Member
Posted 21 August 2016 - 09:00 AM
Dredger, on 21 August 2016 - 08:04 AM, said:
What is the point of you posting a picture? The rarities?
#19
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- The Patron Saint
- 533 posts
Member
- LocationBetween Chair and Keyboard
Posted 21 August 2016 - 09:04 AM
Mr Goldenfold, on 21 August 2016 - 06:30 AM, said:
Calling BS.
You can call BS all you want, but you look like you missed some things ...
I never said that I *WON* 100 Caches ingame ... but there were two "Stockpile with MC" events, I needed MCs and I had some cash available, so I bought two of the max packages ... got a bunch of Mech Bays and 96 Caches that way ...
Sorry mate, no BS, just some judicious injection of euros ...
#20
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- The Patron Saint
- 533 posts
Member
- LocationBetween Chair and Keyboard
Posted 21 August 2016 - 09:17 AM
Mudhutwarrior, on 21 August 2016 - 07:50 AM, said:
Yes its a scam and no I will never buy a key.
Oh look here !
The infamous Toxic Troll of MWO !
Back under your bridge, please ...
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