49 replies to this topic

[VirtualRiot]

Do you guys think the global leader-boards for matches played could be used as an indicator of the number of players who play?

I'm not sure when each "season" started and ended, or whether certain players are or are not on the board, but going back to season 4 these are the number of people on the board;

S13 - 17204 <------- Current Season
S12 - 31552
S11 - 33727
S10 - 33105
S9 - 33672
S8 - 34663
S7 - 38102
S6 - 41050
S5 - 55205
S4 - 56774

Excluding the current season as it is not yet over, that puts the calculation using a simple linear equation at ~ 24290 players listed at the end of the current season, with 21196 by season 14.

I understand that the regression for a linear equation with this data set is probably only around 0.8, so its probably more like 29148 for season 13 and 25435 for season 14 but there is a decrease over time for sure.

I also seem to be running into more and more potatoes in T1 games as time goes on...

Who knows, maybe this data is worthless due to a multitude of potential reasons, I just thought it was interesting.

[jper4]

I always thought the seasons started on the first of every month.so seeing how today's only the 6th there's lots of time for people who in the states may be on vacation for the 4th and not playing but will hop back I next week say.

but I admit I never paid that much attention to the leaderboards so I could and probably will be wrong about this.. I always forget they exist until I see them mentioned here on the forums in some way or another

[KodiakGW]

2K dip from season 11 to 12. Hmmm...I wonder what happened then....

I'd say a good percentage of what you see are probably alt accounts. I know some have admitted to at least two (one Clan, one IS), some even more. Personally, I ranked 17,006 for total matched last season with only 67 games played. That's about one game per day. Season 11 ranked 11,884, with only 101 games. I don't play any alt accounts.

You'll see it pick up after the upcoming patch. Many curious people will be back for that.

[El Bandito]

Summer is here for those who wish to get out of the city, and tons of online games are offering sweet summer events. Not to mention Steam summer sale means people are trying other games.

[SQW]

There will be a slight boost when IS LFE comes into play and people start experimenting with their STD engine chassis. The new weapons will be a bust because for the sake of balance, they simply can't be 'better' than existing ones so it's all an exercise in treading water.

PGI wouldn't give a f*ck about the number of players as long as the paying whales are still eating up every mech pack being pumped out. "Oh, I've been playing the same boring lobby skirmish on the same maps for years but with Madcat II and a new Urbie, everything's different!"

You guys want new map or new modes or better FP? Stop buying packs for two months and see miracles happen in the next Town Hall.

[Kiiyor]

I think there's also a cutoff number of games before you're recorded on the boards. Looks like you need to rack up 10 matches before your numbers are added also.

[SQW]

Kiiyor, on 06 July 2017 - 05:54 PM, said:

I think there's also a cutoff number of games before you're recorded on the boards. Looks like you need to rack up 10 matches before your numbers are added also.

If you play less than 10 games a month in a F2P game with typical matches lasting 5-7min, you aren't spending money on it and you aren't contributing to the overall population. The former means PGI doesn't care about you and latter means you don't contribute to a shorter queue time for active players either - either way, there's no point in counting them.

[Johnny Z]

Noticed at least a couple topics about tier one gameplay and the quality of players lately. Yes tier 1 has been trolled heavily lately.

Just yesterday seen a spider with only 2 medium pulse lasers playing legit outscore nearly the entire team. The perfect example of what is going on.

Afk mechs constantly, but few actual disconnects compared to usual. The use of multiple accounts by some has also become obvious.

As for numbers, they seem typical overall.

Edited by Johnny Z, 06 July 2017 - 06:24 PM.

[Jman5]

If you're wondering why there was such a big drop from after Season 5 it's because the leaderboards stopped counting people who played less than 10 games because it was screwing up some of the stat rankings.

Seasons start at the beginning of every month so we're 6 days into Season 13.

If you exclude players with 10 games or fewer from earlier seasons it looks like this

S12 - 31,552
S11 - 33,727
S10 - 33,105
S9 - 33,672
S8 - 34,663
S7 - 38,102
S6 - 41,048
S5 - 35,390
S4 - 37,041
S3 - 35,798
S2 - 38,077

I'm excluding Season 1 because it was 2 months long.

So the total number of players is probably going down a little at a time, but not as dramatically as it may appear if you don't adjust the old seasonal data properly. This could also just be a seasonal decline that we're entering and it could pick up in the late summer and fall like it did last year.

What we do see from the numbers is that major feature releases do bring in more people. So July might see some decent numbers with the new tech coming.

Edited by Jman5, 06 July 2017 - 06:16 PM.

[SQW]

Jman5, on 06 July 2017 - 06:04 PM, said:

What we do see from the numbers is that major feature releases do bring in more people. So July might see some decent numbers with the new tech coming.

Not really. Only the LFE has any real impact on gameplay on the IS side and a minor one at that. Yes, it will make existing players play a bit more for a short time but it will do little to bring back old players or attract new ones. Think about it, people didn't leave MWO because they can't make their IS mechs work with STD or XL engine and they certainly wouldn't be coming back because their old chassis is now a bit more survivable.

As long as the core game play remains the boring lobby shooter on tiny maps, MWO will continue to lose players.

[RussianWolf]

Jman5, on 06 July 2017 - 06:04 PM, said:

If you're wondering why there was such a big drop from after Season 5 it's because the leaderboards stopped counting people who played less than 10 games because it was screwing up some of the stat rankings.

Seasons start at the beginning of every month so we're 6 days into Season 13.

If you exclude players with 10 games or fewer from earlier seasons it looks like this

S12 - 31,552
S11 - 33,727
S10 - 33,105
S9 - 33,672
S8 - 34,663
S7 - 38,102
S6 - 41,048
S5 - 35,390
S4 - 37,041
S3 - 35,798
S2 - 38,077

I'm excluding Season 1 because it was 2 months long.

So the total number of players is probably going down a little at a time, but not as dramatically as it may appear if you don't adjust the old seasonal data properly. This could also just be a seasonal decline that we're entering and it could pick up in the late summer and fall like it did last year.

What we do see from the numbers is that major feature releases do bring in more people. So July might see some decent numbers with the new tech coming.

Just looking at season 6 through 12... almost a 25% drop in 6 months. That's.... not..... good.

[Jman5]

RussianWolf, on 06 July 2017 - 07:30 PM, said:

Just looking at season 6 through 12... almost a 25% drop in 6 months. That's.... not..... good.

Like I said a lot of those numbers are likely seasonal. Season 6 was December which is when people get time off from work/school, and you always get big numbers. Season 12 is June where population numbers are always lowest. If you look at steam numbers last year, June saw a 20% population drop from the previous month followed by a 10% growth in July. You can go back to a NGNG podcast with Russ Bullocks this time last year and he pointed out the same thing. This time the numbers are more moderate, but I wouldn't be surprised if you see some growth in the July numbers.

I'm not saying MWO will continue on forever, but I am saying you have to cautious comparing the year's high with the year's low because the time of year does make a big difference.

Edited by Jman5, 07 July 2017 - 07:25 AM.

[Appuagab]

SQW, on 06 July 2017 - 05:52 PM, said:

You guys want new map or new modes or better FP? Stop buying packs for two months and see miracles happen in the next Town Hall.

I want current maps fixed and garbage modes fixed or removed. :^(
We have like 2 REALLY GOOD maps and and 4 ok variations of skirmish now.

Johnny Z, on 06 July 2017 - 06:03 PM, said:

Noticed at least a couple topics about tier one gameplay and the quality of players lately. Yes tier 1 has been trolled heavily lately.

Since tier 1 can be just farmed, it doesn't mean anything and more and more players are becoming T1 regardless of skill.

[The Mysterious Fox]

more maps and get rid of all modes except skirmish and ffa. if theyre brave, mode and map selection instead of this random roulette.

[ScrapIron Prime]

Chill for a second and put this in perspective.



That's not a massive drop. It's a downward trend, sure, but the game is 5 years old and still doing fairly well.

[Admiral-Dan]

The Mysterious Fox, on 07 July 2017 - 08:13 AM, said:

mode and map selection instead of this random roulette.

I don’t think that many players would enjoy queue times of 1h+.

[Novakaine]

Makes a difference how?
I could see if there a few hundred players on any given server.
Otherwise who cars.

[Natred]

The season just started bud. Some people are gone for weeks at a time for work. Not everyone works a day job. I think the population is growing honestly. Always seeing and helping new pilots on comstar.

[The Mysterious Fox]

AlphaEtOmega, on 07 July 2017 - 09:26 AM, said:

I don’t think that many players would enjoy queue times of 1h+.

good maps will get fast queue times and everyone will get what they want. whats bad about it?

[RussianWolf]

Jman5, on 07 July 2017 - 07:19 AM, said:

Like I said a lot of those numbers are likely seasonal. Season 6 was December which is when people get time off from work/school, and you always get big numbers. Season 12 is June where population numbers are always lowest. If you look at steam numbers last year, June saw a 20% population drop from the previous month followed by a 10% growth in July. You can go back to a NGNG podcast with Russ Bullocks this time last year and he pointed out the same thing. This time the numbers are more moderate, but I wouldn't be surprised if you see some growth in the July numbers.

I'm not saying MWO will continue on forever, but I am saying you have to cautious comparing the year's high with the year's low because the time of year does make a big difference.

If you want to compare Season 2 and Season 12 (closest to the same period you have here) that's still better than a 20% drop. That's a significant number. And a 10% drop over 2 months is significant also, if that is what happened last year.

Not sure why you would think July will be bigger. Most of the player base, from what I've gathered, is later 30's to early 50's. July is prime time to take the kids on vacation and not be around a computer. More vacations during this time than in December. So I'd wager on a continuation of the slide in July. We'll see for sure next month.