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Please Implement Elo Or Trueskill Matchmaking


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#21 Xavori

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 02:17 PM

View PostAsym, on 29 November 2017 - 02:10 PM, said:

Oh, good Holy Lord, here we go again.......

Nothing is going to change. PGI is NOT going to ever consider changes to MM nor anything they've done in the past because they will not disturb the cash flow of Status Quo: people are buying stuff consistently to keep the books in the black.

Otherwise, they'd be reading the forums to figure where we are coming off the rails and not buying....

Why discuss something we have no control over and PGI will not fix????


How would making matches more even, and hence more enjoyable, interfere with PGI's cash flow? Wouldn't it work the other way around that if the game was more fun, more people would play, and hence would spend more money on it?

I know that every time I go through a day without a good match because everything is either stomp or get stomped, I don't log on as much the next few days. And I already disappeared for a year once because the game got boring. I only came back, and am sticking around as long as I have this time because a friend of mine had found a unit, introduced me, and I'm having fun dropping with them which makes up for the iffy level of fun I have with my solo drops.

#22 Athom83

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 02:27 PM

Again as in the many other "teh 12-0 ar no balance" threads; the 12-0 matches are the balanced matches in games with no respawn.

#23 Mole

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 02:35 PM

View PostXavori, on 29 November 2017 - 02:17 PM, said:


How would making matches more even, and hence more enjoyable, interfere with PGI's cash flow? Wouldn't it work the other way around that if the game was more fun, more people would play, and hence would spend more money on it?

I know that every time I go through a day without a good match because everything is either stomp or get stomped, I don't log on as much the next few days. And I already disappeared for a year once because the game got boring. I only came back, and am sticking around as long as I have this time because a friend of mine had found a unit, introduced me, and I'm having fun dropping with them which makes up for the iffy level of fun I have with my solo drops.


We know PGI's track record with making big decisions. I'd venture a guess that the reason we see so much inaction and lack of transparency within PGI is because they've become afraid to really act because in the past they have always ****** up every time they've tried. Nobody, not even PGI, has faith in their ability to impliment a working system like you are describing.

#24 Xavori

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 02:58 PM

View PostMole, on 29 November 2017 - 02:35 PM, said:


We know PGI's track record with making big decisions. I'd venture a guess that the reason we see so much inaction and lack of transparency within PGI is because they've become afraid to really act because in the past they have always ****** up every time they've tried. Nobody, not even PGI, has faith in their ability to impliment a working system like you are describing.


Except we're not asking PGI to design anything. Microsoft basically dumped TrueSkill out there because it's heavily based on ELO which in turn is also not a PGI design. There are even code libraries already in existence to implement them in a variety of languages. They could go with ELO or TrueSkill without having to do any design of the system at all.

This is actually one of the easiest things PGI could do to improve game experience simply because so much of the work is already done.

#25 Tarl Cabot

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 02:58 PM

Previous Elo before PSR...

http://mwomercs.com/...79-matchmaking/

https://mwomercs.com...ost__p__1626065

Edited by Tarl Cabot, 29 November 2017 - 02:59 PM.


#26 MischiefSC

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 03:07 PM

View PostMole, on 29 November 2017 - 01:58 PM, said:


Come on. Don't bull **** me. People hated ELO because they kept getting grouped with potatos that they felt were the cause of the 12-0 stomp they just experienced. I know, I was there. Then PGI gave is the tier system. A whole lot of nothing changed, and now people are touting ELO as the solution.


People got grouped with potatoes because they were potatoes. The reality was that they were winning about 50% of their matches.

Now they're grouped with better players and getting farmed because they're way out of their skill range and so each match is either get carried (while probably dying early) or get farmed (while dying early) so they rage over 1 sided matches.

Spuds should be in spud matches. The problem is that most people are average or worse but think they are better.

#27 Mole

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 03:13 PM

View PostMischiefSC, on 29 November 2017 - 03:07 PM, said:

People got grouped with potatoes because they were potatoes. The reality was that they were winning about 50% of their matches.

Now they're grouped with better players and getting farmed because they're way out of their skill range and so each match is either get carried (while probably dying early) or get farmed (while dying early) so they rage over 1 sided matches.

Spuds should be in spud matches. The problem is that most people are average or worse but think they are better.


Personally I think the problem of stomps is almost entirely psychological. Yes it happens, and when it happens to you it's not fun, but there are people that convince themselves that they are losing over and over and over and over again through no fault of their own. I feel like I win about 50/50. Last time I looked at my stats I believe it actually reflected that I've won a little bit more than I've lost, but it was still pretty close to a 1. Every time I've taken the time to look at the leaderboard stats of someone complaining about how they get nothing but losses I end up seeing a WLR that is roughly 1 as well. I actually think the MM is doing its job and people are simply succumbing to a psychological bias that occurs where negative experiences are remembered more potently than positive ones, giving the illusion that the negative experiences happen more often. What's that old saying? One "Aw ****" erases 15 "attaboys"?

#28 Wintersdark

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 03:17 PM

1) Even with accurate player skill matching, we'll still have sh*tty matches because there aren't enough simultaneous players to make balanced matches. The best we could have is a full range of players per match, with an even distribution of potatoes and good players on each team. We can NOT have teams where everyone is of comparable skill level, that simply can't happen. I can do the math (yet again), but I'd rather not.

2) PGI doesn't stick with PSR because of money, that's just silly. PSR is many things (dumb, xp bar, generally ineffective, worse all the time due to constant up-creep of everyone) but it's not a cash grab.

3) We had Elo. It did work, but to a limited degree (though those limits impact every matchmaking system, primarily:

4) It cannot account for build, and build matters as much as or more than mech choice. It also cannot account for "I'm just screwing around today, but last weekend during the event I played my hardest."




There isn't an easy answer here, and if you think there is, you're an idiot. This is a hard problem.

The best method, realistically speaking, would be to create a battlevalue system able to accurately rate build performance, and have it indexed to an player skill Elo system. That sounds "doable" but it's immensely complicated, extremely difficult, and far more likely to be inaccurate and thus worse than the current system.

View PostMischiefSC, on 29 November 2017 - 03:07 PM, said:

People got grouped with potatoes because they were potatoes. The reality was that they were winning about 50% of their matches.

Now they're grouped with better players and getting farmed because they're way out of their skill range and so each match is either get carried (while probably dying early) or get farmed (while dying early) so they rage over 1 sided matches.

Spuds should be in spud matches. The problem is that most people are average or worse but think they are better.

What do you mean? I'm the sole awesome player in all my matches. I lose the matches I lose because I'm grouped with potatoes, and when I win, it's because I'm bloody awesome and carried them all.

=)

#29 Wintersdark

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 03:22 PM

Also: 8v8 was flatly better. I argued for 12v12 when PGI said they were doing it, and I was wrong (and found I was wrong very rapidly after the 12v12 release) but to be fair people didn't push PGI for 12v12, PGI simply said they were doing it.

And: Stomps are not indicative of a poor matchmaker (though our matchmaking is certainly not great). Stomps are an inevitable result of no-respawn gameplay due to snowballing. No matter how the matchmaker is improved, stomps will continue to happen regularly.

#30 Troa Barton

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 03:26 PM

Stop playing in premades and solo drop, you will find the games are much better when there isn't a group of trolls or tryhards in the mix.

#31 Sjorpha

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 03:36 PM

The assumption that so called stomps are an indication of imbalanced matches is false, the combination of high TTK (compared to most shooters) and single life leads to a very strong snowball effect and therefore many "stomps" by design.

There is also a counter-intuitive effect where internally balanced teams (low standard deviation of skill within a team) can increase the snowball effect.

This is because if the team has high skill variation the bad players on both sides die first with only a minor effect on the team which reduces snowballing, but if all the players are equally skilled the first player to die is always a valuable team member which means a stronger snowballing effect.

So if the goal was to actually reduce 12-0 results the best way to do so would be to have very high skill variation within the teams, very good and very bad players on both sides so that the bad players can die first and the endgame would be the few good players on each team. This would make matches feel more even but it would also be very demoralising to bad players who would routinely be cannon fodder every game.

On the other hand MWO with 100% perfect matchmaking and minimal skill variance within teams would have 12-0 matches being fairly common since the snowballing would be very real. It would also be higher level play where a teams tactical decisions and coordination would decide which side did the stomping, so objectively these matches would be better and more competitive, but some people would only see the common 12-0 result and assume it was bad MM.

That doesn't mean the current matchmaking is necessarily good, but seeing many stomps isn't good evidence for the claim that it's bad.

Personally I seem to be doing quite well under the current system, not sure why.

#32 Xavori

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 03:58 PM

View PostTroa Barton, on 29 November 2017 - 03:26 PM, said:

Stop playing in premades and solo drop, you will find the games are much better when there isn't a group of trolls or tryhards in the mix.


Uh...no.

This is not a premade. My team won. It was a boring match that I could have played blindfolded.
https://steamuserima...BB359E9708317C/

Conversely, this was a lot of fun, and was group queue.
https://steamuserima...93F9835ED33A5A/
(even the last minute or so where my guns had been shot off and I was simply running for my life)

So ya, it has nothing to do with solo or drop queue and everything to do with the matchmaker being bad at it's job.

#33 Mystere

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:00 PM

View PostNightbird, on 29 November 2017 - 11:42 AM, said:

What ever happened to random numbers are random?


Then are actually no such things as "random" numbers when it comes to computers. Posted Image

Edited by Mystere, 29 November 2017 - 04:00 PM.


#34 Mystere

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:03 PM

View PostMole, on 29 November 2017 - 12:29 PM, said:

What the hell is it with you people and requesting something, PGI gives it to you, then you request the old system back thinking it's going to be good? People begged for map voting. Now they are begging for random maps like its the solution to everything. Which is what we had before map voting. I wasn't around for 8v8 but I can only assume it was changed to 12v12 by popular demand, now people are acting like 8v8 is the answer to all balancing problems ever. And now here you are requesting ELO which is exactly what we had before we pressured PGI into a tier system because the ELO was failing to make good matches too. Remember kids; history is important.


The people asking for Elo back are not the same people who asked for it to be removed. The same holds for random maps, and 12 vs 12.

Moving away from Elo to PSR was a mistake.
Removing random map selection in favor of map voting was a mistake.
Ditching 12 vs. 12 and going back to 8 vs. 8 will be a gigantic mistake, a regression, an admission of just giving up.

Edited by Mystere, 29 November 2017 - 04:06 PM.


#35 Xavori

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:05 PM

View PostNightbird, on 29 November 2017 - 11:42 AM, said:

What ever happened to random numbers are random? If you believe that then no matchmaker can do what you want here.


Random numbers really are random. Our current leaderboard is garbage because of it.

But if matches weren't random, but were instead two teams of roughly equal skill, and instead of trying to read voodoo into W/L ratios, we created a player rating based on the quality of opponents you won or lost to, you could in fact compare pilots based on that rating once you had a few hundred or so matches played. Ya know, like they do in practically every other competitive game out there.

#36 Escef

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:22 PM

View PostAsym, on 29 November 2017 - 02:10 PM, said:

Oh, good Holy Lord, here we go again.......

Nothing is going to change. PGI is NOT going to ever consider changes to MM nor anything they've done in the past because they will not disturb the cash flow of Status Quo: people are buying stuff consistently to keep the books in the black.

Otherwise, they'd be reading the forums to figure where we are coming off the rails and not buying....

Why discuss something we have no control over and PGI will not fix????


Except, y'know, this is demonstrably false. The current matchmaker and its criteria are very different from the original matchmaker. We used to have a ELO based matchmaking, which even gave each player four distinct scores based upon weight classes. Afterwards, we got the 3x4 matchmaking criteria (attempt to give each team 3 mechs of each of the 4 weight classes), then the current Tier based system and the weight limits on group sizes in the group quickplay queue.

{Tangent-Rant Begins Here}

I swear, every time someone says something like this, whether out of ignorance, arrogance, or outright deceit, it sets actual progress backwards, and makes honest, intelligent discussion harder. Because if this crud isn't corrected than you start moving forward and building upon a false premise. The community is constantly doing this. And we have several folks, many of them very toxic, that keep insisting we start from a position that does not reflect the facts.

I'd like to believe that many of these people genuinely are in the dark as to the facts, I'd like to believe that their words are inspired by a genuine affection for the franchise... Instead, I believe these toxic people, rather, are inspired by an unthinking hatred for PGI, which likely was inspired by PGI quite frankly biting off more than they could chew. I've said many times, PGI makes promises like a cheerful drunk, and in the morning when they sober up, they turn around and say, "Wait, I said I'd do WHAT?!" So, yes, I understand these people feel betrayed. A certain amount of it makes sense, PGI made promises that either they could not keep or could not deliver upon in good time. Maybe it is that what they see as betrayal of both themselves and a beloved franchise has caused them to embrace this irrational hatred. And I have no sympathy for them once they subscribe to irrationality and hatred. It just isn't productive. These people do not pass up an opportunity to say things that are as disenfranchising to the rest of the playerbase (especially new players) as possible. Because despite the fact that some of them still play, they won't be happy until everyone is as miserable as they are, and they can point and trumpet their "I told you so!" to the heavens.

Even better, these toxic people seem to ignore the fact that the franchise sat dormant, without investors since MechAssault 2. The first MechAssault sold 1.13 million copies. The second a mere 360 thousand. After that, investors didn't want to touch the franchise. Some will point to the Smith & Tinker MechWarrior 5 trailer from several years back, but they ignore the fact that the trailer was made in an effort to woo investors so the project could get off the ground. An effort that failed. It wasn't until PGI & IGP picked it up that a new MechWarrior game happened. No one else wanted it (or at the least, no one that could pay the money to purchase a license from Microsoft). And PGI had ideas. Ideas that people liked. And despite helping get the project off the ground, IGP seemed to be the biggest obstacle to making most of these ideas happen. (In fact, if you go back and listen to the first townhall that PGI President Russ Bullock had after the dissolution of IGP, you can hear in his voice and his words how hard he was trying to NOT throw IGP under the bus. Not because they didn't deserve it, but because he knew talking crap about them would make himself and PGI look bad, and poison other companies, especially investors, against PGI, thus making any future projects unlikely.)

I know it's the failure of Community/Faction Warfare that drives some of the hatred. I know it is. It wasn't until after IGP was out of the picture that real work on Community/Faction Warfare began (IGP was constantly using their influence to torpedo it). And since its launch PGI has been on a nearly Quixotic quest to tweak or rework it into a state that will make the community happy. And in case people have failed to notice, PGI has never made any moves to monetize FW. Not a one. From the first day it came out, it was unpopular; and most of the player base seriously does not care about it anyway. But for that 10% of the playerbase, and to at least attempt to make the promise of a real, enjoyable FW system, PGI has dumped hundreds upon hundreds of man-hours into it. Into a project that the company steadfastly has refused to monetize. And yet, we have toxic people in the community that insist that PGI is just trying to milk us for every penny they can and is purposely destroying the franchise, etc... I mean, the reality just doesn't align with that viewpoint. It's like dealing with a damned flat-earther.

Now, I'm sure I'm going to have people accuse me of white knighting and such at this point. And you know what? The people that make that accusation don't matter. They say things like that because they cannot refute the argument, so they resort to the ad hominem attack. I'm not trying to invalidate anyone's feelings, I just want people to be, y'know, factual. I know that's asking a lot these days. As for my attitude towards PGI, I give them a LOT of slack. They're a relatively small developer, and MWO is the biggest project they've ever taken on. And they have made decisions I disagreed with. Yes, if I was in charge of FW it would be a lot different. Yes, PGI has made balance decisions that made me scratch my head and ask, "Why did you think that was the right move?" (Like in open Beta when they decided to decrease AC10 velocity, despite the fact that it was the least popular ballistic in the game due to lackluster performance compared to other heavy cannons.) Now, when PGI says that {fill in the blank} is a problem, I tend to believe them, but that doesn't mean I agree with the steps taken to correct it. (The recent nerfing of Artemis missile clustering I thought was uncalled for. Yes, it combined with the skill tree Missile Spread nodes to create tighter missile clusters than they wanted, but in light of the bonus durability from the survival tree I disagreed with it being a real issue.)

TL; DR version - Get your facts straight, dump your emotions and ego, then make your analysis. Because if you don't we just waste time on false starts.

{End of Tangent-Rant}

And as I say, be good, stay safe, kill no one I wouldn't, happy gaming, and I'll catch ya' whenever the next time I catch ya' is. Later, fellas.

Edited by Escef, 29 November 2017 - 04:25 PM.


#37 Cabusha

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:35 PM

View PostMole, on 29 November 2017 - 12:29 PM, said:

What the hell is it with you people and requesting something, PGI gives it to you, then you request the old system back thinking it's going to be good? People begged for map voting. Now they are begging for random maps like its the solution to everything. Which is what we had before map voting. I wasn't around for 8v8 but I can only assume it was changed to 12v12 by popular demand, now people are acting like 8v8 is the answer to all balancing problems ever. And now here you are requesting ELO which is exactly what we had before we pressured PGI into a tier system because the ELO was failing to make good matches too. Remember kids; history is important.


The old ELO system was global. EG: It was a general pilot rating, and did not account for mech class (light, med, hvy, or assault), nor did it account for mech chassis/variant. This really shoehorned people into their best mech.

At the time, I was one of the two guys in our unit who were good assault players. I was brutal in an atlas, could tank/spread well, and enjoyed leading pushes. This weighted my ELO, because when I was in an Atlas, I could carry. The problem was when I changed chassis. EG, switch to a new light mech. ELO said I was a high-skill player and would weight me as such, but in a light my performance dropped significantly.

The old ELO system was flawed, and it was pointed out repeatedly in the old forums. Rather than fixing/improving it, PGI scrapped it and switched to the current system. Back then, it was pointed out that everyone ends up tier 1 eventually because of the bias in their algorithm, and this was ignored. So here we are today with everyone dog piled into high tier matches with no real MM in place.

#38 MischiefSC

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:50 PM

Elo. ELO is a band. Electric Light Orchestra.

Elo system is named after Arpad Elo, who invented it.

#39 Khobai

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:51 PM

Quote

Also: 8v8 was flatly better. I argued for 12v12 when PGI said they were doing it, and I was wrong (and found I was wrong very rapidly after the 12v12 release) but to be fair people didn't push PGI for 12v12, PGI simply said they were doing it.


12v12 is fine for faction play

but it never shouldve found its way into quickplay. quickplay should be 8v8.

#40 UnofficialOperator

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 04:57 PM

I think everyone is reading too much into Stomps occuring = MM not working.

Even if we had the perfect MM and high population, I believe stomps will still occur a function of snowballing as Winterdark said.

The very few 12-10 or 12-11 games I've seen were almost always a case of both sides playing passively and poking/lrming. Most games are almost always where 1 side plays more aggressively and decides to ball up and push 1 time. They are almost always the winners and its almost always a stomp.





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