65 replies to this topic

[MW Waldorf Statler]

the Events bring his own "Specialists " Class ...bad when you seeing this in the own Team

[Kroete]

Shmoken, on 20 March 2018 - 07:29 PM, said:

As for my abilities, I've been playing the stock load outs for the Cheetah and Kaiju and not liking them much. Also I've been trying to skill up all my new mechs, so I need to start taking that into account.

Find the weapons you like and built around it,
at least change some armor values (the kaiju has lots of back sidetorso armor, you can reduce it and put it in the front sidetorsos for better survival (around 10-15% backarmor is often enough)),
play around in the mechlab and then try it in the testing grounds,
if you like a build, try it at least 10 matches until you change something, a single match does not tell much.

Edited by Kroete, 21 March 2018 - 03:45 AM.

[Asym]

Losing is a serious sales tactic some games use to get you to buy "something better".... Krote is right: find "something" you enjoy and follow where that "fun" goes.... There are many players having a blast "doing something they really enjoy" and lose more than they win !!!

Fun does not equal leader board success; and, fun trumps winning all of the time.... People having fun come back and people who hate to lose often leave... Some advice: forget the leader boards and go "miss behave" and have some fun..........

[Xiphias]

Shmoken, on 20 March 2018 - 07:29 PM, said:

Thanks everyone for your feedback. And no, this isn't a troll. I like the game and almost ALL of the players.

I feel better now that I know tier 3 is better than tier 4. Too much World of Tanks, World of Warships and Warthunder I guess! As for WoT, I too have had the 25 game losing streak and have the same complaint.

As for my abilities, I've been playing the stock load outs for the Cheetah and Kaiju and not liking them much. Also I've been trying to skill up all my new mechs, so I need to start taking that into account.

With the event on, I do see some terrible team work out there. Maybe switching weight class will get me with some new team mates.

At the end of the day, given what I know about statistics, how in the world do I lose so many in a row? Even weighted dice don't come up 7's 11 times in a row!

Based on pure probability (each map is a coin flip) you have a 50% chance of a loss each map so 11 losses in a row has a probability of 100% * 1/2^11, that's 1/2048 or 0.049%. So in a game with 40K players you'd expect 20 to be having an 11 loss streak at any given time.

In practice games aren't a coin flip because your individual performance can skew your odds up or down. Likely a factor in your case is that you've just moved up a tier and are now playing harder opponents. Now that you are in T3 the game expects you to put in the effort of a T3 player to win and if you don't contribute as much as the average T3 player you increase your odds of losing. It's a combination of chance and your ability to affect the outcome of a match.

Quote

The only thing I can think of is that I don't play with a squad or with friends. That may mean that I am playing against teams that DO, and that's a big advantage for them. I used to play Warbirds as part of a squadron every Wednesday night. When we had 15 players in coordinated attacks we decimated the map. Like shooting fish in a barrel.

I got a lot of great tips to increase my skill thanks to your input.

If you are not in a group while playing (solo queue) you won't be playing against groups, aside from the occasional sync drop that happens. If you had groups playing vs solos matches would be much more skewed, trust me. It's bad enough in group queue with the skill difference between groups. Solo vs group would be slaughter.

Situational awareness and positioning are key to winning matches. Being able to focus down important targets or forcing the enemy to move where you want them helps win a lot of matches. Staying where you can support your team without getting isolated or overrun is an important skill to learn. As a light your focus isn't as much on outright killing things (the fun part) as it is tying mechs up to give your team an advantage or drawing mechs out of position.

Example, if you catch a slow assault in the back you might be able to kill it if you rush it, but you also might not and get heavily damaged or killed. If you shoot at it you will do one of a few things. First, you might make it stop moving and turn to fight you. In this case, unless you are confident you can kill it quickly and without taking a lot of damage you should withdraw to cover. Wait until it attempts to move towards the team again and then shoot it in the back again. Rinse and repeat. If it ignores you you can kill it. If it stops to fight you you have delayed it from reaching its team and have kept a lot of tonnage off the front lines.

The other case is that the assault's team has mechs go back to support (probably lights and/or mediums). In this case you want to quickly disengage to avoid being caught and you've successfully tied up several mechs. In either case it's a net benefit to your team.

Lights contribute most to wins by forcing the enemy team to divide their attention. You don't always have to commit. If you can get a clean shot on a flank and then run away that's better than running in and dying to do a bit of extra damage. You want them to be worried about their flank because then they will be less focused on the front line of your team.

Lights become more valuable the longer a match goes on and mechs become more damaged. If you're dying early a lot work on reigning in your aggression a bit and being more strategic about how you engage. Don't focus on objectives, but keep an eye on them and be ready to respond if necessary (e.g. the enemy is reaching a critical amount of caps/points in conquest).

[Dogstar]

Xiphias, on 21 March 2018 - 06:49 AM, said:

Based on pure probability (each map is a coin flip) you have a 50% chance of a loss each map so 11 losses in a row has a probability of 100% * 1/2^11, that's 1/2048 or 0.049%. So in a game with 40K players you'd expect 20 to be having an 11 loss streak at any given time.

and of those 20 players at least one is 100% guaranteed to make a 'MM is broken thread' in the forum...!!!

Which explains why we see the exact same thread so often!

[MW Waldorf Statler]

one suicide runenr ...one DLC ...3 News in fresh buing assaults playing with gamepad and one Bachstander ...loose....
HPG -all run in the basement =loose
Alpine =all splitting and each try his own big Kill =Loose

[Nightbird]

Xiphias, on 21 March 2018 - 06:49 AM, said:

Based on pure probability (each map is a coin flip) you have a 50% chance of a loss each map so 11 losses in a row has a probability of 100% * 1/2^11, that's 1/2048 or 0.049%. So in a game with 40K players you'd expect 20 to be having an 11 loss streak at any given time.

There isn't 40k players in MWO obviously... but suppose that there 500 players that play 100 games in a week. The chance of a person experiencing at least one 11 game losing streak starting with game 1 is 1/2048, so the chance of not starting a 11 game streak with game 1 is (1 - (1/2048)). The chance of not starting a 11 game losing streak for game 2 is the same value, so the odds of not starting a losing streak that bad in 89 games is (1 - (1/2048))^89 = 0.9575, because there are 89 positions to start a streak in 100 games and therefore the chances of starting such a streak is 1 - 0.9575 = 0.0425.

So, with just 500 active players playing 100 games per week (as in this event) we expect to see 0.0425*500 = ~21 players that experience at least one 11 game losing streak.

The odds change if your W/L ratio is not 1.

Over 100 games..
If your W/L ratio is 0.50, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 64.7%
If your W/L ratio is 0.75, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 17.2%
If your W/L ratio is 1.00, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 4.3%
If your W/L ratio is 1.50, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 0.4%
If your W/L ratio is 2.00, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 0.05% << me

Edited by Nightbird, 21 March 2018 - 10:51 AM.

[Xiphias]

Nightbird, on 21 March 2018 - 10:18 AM, said:

There isn't 40k players in MWO obviously... but suppose that there 500 players that play 100 games in a week. The chance of a person experiencing at least one 11 game losing streak starting with game 1 is 1/2048, so the chance of not starting a 11 game streak with game 1 is (1 - (1/2048)). The chance of not starting a 11 game losing streak for game 2 is the same value, so the odds of not starting a losing streak that bad in 89 games is (1 - (1/2048))^89 = 0.9575, because there are 89 positions to start a streak in 100 games and therefore the chances of starting such a streak is 1 - 0.9575 = 0.0425.

So, with just 500 active players playing 100 games per week (as in this event) we expect to see 0.0425*500 = ~21 players that experience at least one 11 game losing streak.

The odds change if your W/L ratio is not 1.

Over 100 games..
If your W/L ratio is 0.50, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 64.7%
If your W/L ratio is 0.75, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 17.2%
If your W/L ratio is 1.00, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 4.3%
If your W/L ratio is 1.50, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 0.4%
If your W/L ratio is 2.00, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 0.05% << me

You did the work I considered doing, for that I thank you sir.

As a side note, total players based on leaderboards per month used to be around 40k, now it's closer to 30k, but still in the rough order of my numbers.

To be honest I don't think I've ever had an 11 match losing streak. I'm similarly sitting in the > 2.0 WLR group these days and while I have losing streaks I don't normally have ones that last for too long. I've definitely had at least one 11 match winning streak (with a few of those matches being hard carry matches) so I guess I'm helping balance the universe.

[Tier5 Kerensky]

Brain Cancer, on 20 March 2018 - 07:55 PM, said:

You are now easily stuffed into games with T1s as fodder, unfortunately. While it's somewhat diluted compared to when the MM started, it still can mean you're stuck in the same matches as world-champion level players at times.

Which by itself is not a major problem. There is 12/23 chance againts 11/24 that the better player is on enemy team. It's nearly equal chances.


If on any given time there are more better players playing than the person who's experience we are talking about about, then it will be more unpleasant for him, as dealing damage and surviving gets harder. But it shouldnt't effect the winrate so much still, at least not directly. Indirect effect out of fustration could happen.

[Duncan Aravain]

Explaining the observed phenomena of unequal division of elite players over numerous matches is harder to explain, but I have a working theory based on low population,the relying on Tier level ( not skill) and tonnage to form teams, the MM design to form one complete team before building an opponent for them, and how fast a winning team and better losing team members re-ready up compared to losers trying to figure out or change what went wrong. Briefly, I feel that the MM tends to congregate winning combinations of players to form a partial team while rotating a mixture of losers/new pool players (good and bad) as their opponets. While this may be true or not, there has to be something built into the MM itself that results in so many outlier type results and observations, especially when you play enough to recognize certain elite or highly skilled players who manage to often group up in a PUG match. Ah well, time to tighten the straps and hit the launch button.

[Red Shrike]

I'm used to losing to the point where I stopped noticing them.

[InspectorG]

Shmoken, on 18 March 2018 - 10:11 PM, said:

I really like the game, but to lose sooooo much is seriously depressing.

<sigh>

Suck it up, buttercup. You only get to cry about losses after a 20 straight losing streak.

10 losses in a row aint s****.

Solo is a 50/50 coin flip where the less bad teams wins.

[Alexander of Macedon]

Taking a late-match light build and watching your team melt in the first three minutes with two AFKs will never go away. Best learn to laugh at stuff like that, because you can't stop it.

[Kodyn]

Just going to address one thing I haven't seen addressed, as other points have been covered.

You aren't playing against teams if you're solo. Not knowing how the Tier system works, not knowing the difference between solo and group queue, not knowing that stock loadouts are absolute trash- all these are contributing to your performance. MWO is not a dive right in kinda game, you need to actually understand it somewhat before attempting to get anywhere with it. Check out some videos on youtube, watch some Twitch streams, read some guides, etc.

MWO is a very poorly balanced game with a very flawed MM and Tier system, lack of proper new player resources, etc, but it's on you if you want to learn how to make the best of it. If you want to succeed in MWO, if you enjoy the game and wish to get better, you need to put in the effort and learn a bit. Knowledge is power, both in MWO and in life.

[eminus]

OP create a new account and go seal clubbing in Tier 4 and Tier 5

[Smooky the husky]

in fridays i did lose 67 match of arrow . not know look like the game give more advatage to red team overpower when are so weak not knwo just wtf this game todays

[MW Waldorf Statler]

Smooky the husky, on 23 March 2018 - 12:41 AM, said:

in fridays i did lose 67 match of arrow . not know look like the game give more advatage to red team overpower when are so weak not knwo just wtf this game todays

when thats true ...you must drive a very bad Build , or bad tactics or Bad aiming (gamepad? Joystick? bad Mouse settings?) bad connection...what you Damage in this Matches ? what for Mech you Drive ?what for Weapons?

[PocketYoda]

El Bandito, on 19 March 2018 - 04:58 PM, said:

Most likely their skill level couldn't catch up. Too bad PGI refuses to remove the upwards bias of the PSR system.

If ELO was around three years ago.. i actually preferred it then. It kept me in tier 4 where i was suppose to be and now with PSR i'm almost in tier 2....

Tier 2.. Yeah right..

Edited by Samial, 23 March 2018 - 03:49 AM.

[justcallme A S H]

Nightbird, on 21 March 2018 - 10:18 AM, said:

There isn't 40k players in MWO obviously... but suppose that there 500 players that play 100 games in a week. The chance of a person experiencing at least one 11 game losing streak starting with game 1 is 1/2048, so the chance of not starting a 11 game streak with game 1 is (1 - (1/2048)). The chance of not starting a 11 game losing streak for game 2 is the same value, so the odds of not starting a losing streak that bad in 89 games is (1 - (1/2048))^89 = 0.9575, because there are 89 positions to start a streak in 100 games and therefore the chances of starting such a streak is 1 - 0.9575 = 0.0425.

So, with just 500 active players playing 100 games per week (as in this event) we expect to see 0.0425*500 = ~21 players that experience at least one 11 game losing streak.

The odds change if your W/L ratio is not 1.

Over 100 games..
If your W/L ratio is 0.50, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 64.7%
If your W/L ratio is 0.75, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 17.2%
If your W/L ratio is 1.00, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 4.3%
If your W/L ratio is 1.50, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 0.4%
If your W/L ratio is 2.00, your chance of a 11 game losing streak is 0.05% &lt;&lt; me

Yep I honestly can't remember when I've lost more than 4 games in a row.

It's worrying though that one player in 12 can affect a game literally, on their own. Granted that it doesn't always happen. Pity soooo many good players have left in the last 8-12 months. Skill maze was the last straw for many (on top of FP3.0)

Edited by justcallme A S H, 23 March 2018 - 04:27 AM.

[Water Bear]

Samial, on 18 March 2018 - 10:45 PM, said:

This game by mechanics is depressing.. Really depressing, kind of odd for a game to make customers angry and upset just by playing it but its MWO... horrible match maker, stupidly broken PSR, horrible balanced weapons and consumables that destroy the game, do not make a nice fun game..

MWO is what it is but do not expect fun here, its not designed with fun in mind.. its all money/meta/competitive BS these days.

Evidence supporting my theory that any complaint on this forum will be rewarded with likes. The more bitter the complaint, the higher the pile of likes.