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The Fallacy Of "jarl's List = Knowledge"


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#21 Dr Cara Carcass

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 10:15 AM

View Post_Magno_, on 16 January 2020 - 08:35 AM, said:


So hold on here buckarroo. Choosing to go out in an Arctic Cheetah a bad pilot does not make. Going out in a an Annihilator-2A with 6x LB AC2x and getting less than 400 damage makes bad pilot.

The point being is that I SHOULD get better Jarl's list stats with the Anni than I would with the Arctic Cheetah. I can do a phenomenal job piloting the ACH, really help out the team, still get a ****** score.

So, you will associate a good pilot in Quick Play as one who ONLY choses to go out in top tier mechs?
After 5 games rolling around in a Wolfhound 5x MPL and averaging 2 kills and 700 damage, maybe I want to change things up and try a challenge mode and focus on comms and targeting for the LURMeys.

There is a soft correlation that a high ranked Jarl's list player is rarely, ....rarely ever playing in an ACH of that spotter build.

But one could have a 50% Jarl's percentile arguing that the ACH TAG mech is a bad and they have the same knowledge (not necessarily skill) as a top Jarl's player; the difference is that one player won't bother with trying because they are concerned with stats.


My arctic Cheeta Score most of the time is equally good as my assault score. If you think that tag and lrms are a good thing to bring you are already lost.

#22 Dr Cara Carcass

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 10:20 AM

View PostKhobai, on 16 January 2020 - 09:37 AM, said:


and your point is?

jarls was not completely reset since people stopped playing in group queue. those stats from when people played in group queue are still very much there.

besides group queue isnt 100% dead and most group queue matches are stomps now. so thats continuing to taint the data. thats always been the problem with jarls list.

jarls list should only should solo queue stats. that would reflect an individuals skill way better.


Every month you get a new score. That score for that month is not connected to any prior month. The average is connected to the last 5 seasons with a strong rolloff after those season. The formula can be found on the bottom of the jarls site....
Your argument is linear independent to teh facts, and i pointed that out more than once to you. When will you learn?

#23 Teenage Mutant Ninja Urbie

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 10:22 AM

View PostShanrak, on 16 January 2020 - 10:01 AM, said:


Lastly, also, its OKAY to be bad at something, its the lack of interest to improve that upsets most of the good players.


^that.

@OP: everything has been said already. point 1,3,4 are debatable, point 2.. a bad cheetah build is a a bad cheetah build, no matter how you turn it.


more to the good point that was made above: hey, nobody is perfect. and in a single-player game, nobody blames you for playing however you like. go nuts with your cheetah in Sol7, for example. nobody will complain.

when you pull such stunts in a multiplayergame though, you're actively working against your team. might be fun to you, certainly is NO fun for your teammates. and it's not fair to ruin 11 (or 23) others' fun just for your amusement.

just -try- to do your best, and don't make excuses up with nonsense like "yeah, I run a crappy build, but I support my team so much, so thats okay".
trying to improve is all everybody is asking for - everything else is really not fair to the people dropping with you.

Edited by Teenage Mutant Ninja Urbie, 16 January 2020 - 10:47 AM.


#24 VigorousApathy

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 10:54 AM

Nobody takes jarls seriously OP, true measure of skill is found in solaris. Kek

#25 Horseman

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 11:09 AM

View Post_Magno_, on 16 January 2020 - 08:35 AM, said:

The point being is that I SHOULD get better Jarl's list stats with the Anni than I would with the Arctic Cheetah.
Not necessarily. You will get a higher match score but score alone isn't worth much if your winrate tanks. Usually there's a correlation between high scoring and high winrate, though, mainly because score tends to be increased by things that also help your team succeed.

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I can do a phenomenal job piloting the ACH, really help out the team, still get a ****** score.
... and you can get NASCARed by your team and die because no matter how good you are one ANH can't defend itself against an entire light lance. That's been distressingly common in my QP experience with the ANH. Posted Image

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So, you will associate a good pilot in Quick Play as one who ONLY choses to go out in top tier mechs?
No. A good pilot will be able to do a decent job even in a trash tier mech, and it will come across in their stats.

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After 5 games rolling around in a Wolfhound 5x MPL and averaging 2 kills and 700 damage, maybe I want to change things up and try a challenge mode and focus on comms and targeting for the LURMeys.
And there's nothing wrong with that.

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There is a soft correlation that a high ranked Jarl's list player is rarely, ....rarely ever playing in an ACH of that spotter build.
Maybe because they have a more effective one that can both fight and spot as needed? Posted Image

Quote

But one could have a 50% Jarl's percentile arguing that the ACH TAG mech is a bad and they have the same knowledge (not necessarily skill) as a top Jarl's player
They may have the same knowledge about theory, but one evidently has more knowledge about putting that theory into practice.

View PostKodyn, on 16 January 2020 - 10:10 AM, said:

It comes down to using your best judgement as to who to pay attention to- an experienced player with poor stats can still give you useful general game knowledge, but if an equally or less experienced player with great stats contradicts that advice, then you should probably listen to that guy.
Exactissimo.

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Overall Jarl's is still a pretty good indicator of roughly how likely someone is to be a decent player or not, but it probably shouldn't be used as a debate-ender, except in cases where some idiot is blatantly spreading misinformation and bad advice.
Let's be fair: this is the reason for most times when Jarl's is brought into discussion at all.

Edited by Horseman, 16 January 2020 - 11:22 AM.


#26 RickySpanish

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 11:10 AM

I muck around quite often OP, running daft builds like micro laser Gargoyle, Stealth-Gauss-Ghillie and my current favourite build, the 15 Heavy Small Laser Nova. Only this season have I been almost exclusively playing one 'Mech. My stats are generally in the positive. You can do all the things you say that should knock your score down and still do well enough. I dunno man, maybe people should "play the meta" to see truly how many of their excuses are valid.

#27 MischiefSC

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 11:17 AM

There's a lot of useful data in Jarls. It's an awesome resource. It's also not a bad rule of thumb to establish how well someone understands the game.

W/L and survival tell the most about someones skill as a pilot. Match score, KDR, damage can be useful to - both in determining how good someone is and in seeing how well they play to the team/the win as opposed to padding their own stats. Someone with high survival, damage, match score but a low W/L is likely the sort of 'good' player everyone dreads - hanging in the back, using their team as armor and running off to shut down or just run down the match the moment it starts to turn south on them. A good player has a strong W/L and the rest of the metrics show how they make that happen. Someone with good stats but a low W/L isn't a good player, they're just good at using the team to pad their stats. They likely have a lot of excuses why.

It also really shows the brutal skill gap. 15,000 players last season, give or take. The top 60 players are lightyears ahead of the other 14,940 people playing. Sure, 61-120 are great but by the time you get to 200, it starts to make a curve. However we've got a crop of top performers who play a lot and win a truly stupid amount of games. To pretend that doesn't directly equate to how much they know about... what does and does not win matches, well that's silly.

The brutal truth is that jarls list is a strong and useful tool to determining how useful someones opinion and advice is at winning in MWO.

#28 Kodyn

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 11:22 AM

Wish I could like Mischief's post more than once. He really hit the nail on the head, as usual.

Trust someone with decent Jarl's stats to explain it so concisely ;p.

This thread is actually a perfect example of a lot of what's been said actually, you've got several players with good Jarl's stats giving good advice and explaining why Jarl's is useful in a better fashion than the mediocre guys like me.

#29 MischiefSC

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 11:41 AM

View PostKodyn, on 16 January 2020 - 11:22 AM, said:

Wish I could like Mischief's post more than once. He really hit the nail on the head, as usual.

Trust someone with decent Jarl's stats to explain it so concisely ;p.

This thread is actually a perfect example of a lot of what's been said actually, you've got several players with good Jarl's stats giving good advice and explaining why Jarl's is useful in a better fashion than the mediocre guys like me.


Problem is that most people with bad stats usually have a bunch of excuses they're very attached to as to why. It's generally worth the time to argue with them though. Not because you'll change their mind - if they could change their mind on that they'd be learning and using what works instead of trying to argue that what they do does work or should work but the game and everyone else playing isn't doing it right. That or that doing what works is mean and terrible. No, you argue with them to use them as a foil to show everyone who's reading WHY what's correct is correct and why what works is what works and why bad peoples bad arguments are bad.

You don't debate to change the mind of who you're debating, you do it to show a point to the people watching. Jarls is a great tool to help with that.

#30 Kodyn

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:01 PM

I think where the OP is coming from does have at least one valid takeaway as well- not everyone making points using Jarl's to back up their argument does so in an informative fashion. There's the Mischief Method, and then there's "LUL .75 W/L, nothing you say matters." That can be a turn-off to newer players or bystanders reading a discussion, where otherwise they may have learned something. I get that sometimes better players lose patience with people who refuse to learn, hell I do it too, and I don't have the stats to back me up lol.

Just as an aside, I frequently Jarl's-check anyone in a thread who's making a point I find interesting, as a result of that combined with lurking around for years, I have a pretty good idea of where any given poster is coming from skill-wise when they're presenting an argument or giving advice. Of course some of the best players in the game aren't always the most informative or friendly, which is again where Jarl's can come in handy if someone's being abrasive in making their point- they may be going about it in the wrong way but correct in their argument, which you can figure out via Jarl's.

#31 _Magno_

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:16 PM

View PostPrototelis, on 16 January 2020 - 09:44 AM, said:

Sweet, another mad cuz bad thread.


At this point, I was expecting you to chime in.

I am not mad whatsoever. Please don't make dismissive assumptions to sound grand.

#32 The Jewce Iz Loose

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:19 PM

View Post_Magno_, on 16 January 2020 - 12:16 PM, said:


At this point, I was expecting you to chime in.

I am not mad whatsoever. Please don't make dismissive assumptions to sound grand.


That's just Proto being Proto

#33 _Magno_

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:23 PM

View PostMischiefSC, on 16 January 2020 - 11:17 AM, said:


The brutal truth is that jarls list is a strong and useful tool to determining how useful someones opinion and advice is at winning in MWO.


I want to make clear from my original post that I love Jarl's list. I love the data and I do find it very useful.
I hope the message is that, there is a fallacy trap to leverage the list for determining whether or not someone has insight or not.

As an example;
someone like RWTumbleweed does not have the stats as some here would insist is paramount to be listened to. But I am not listening to RWTumbleweed for mech builds or design; he consistently provides valuable information and comms in game that are NOT directly reflected in his stats.

#34 Vxheous

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:32 PM

View Post_Magno_, on 16 January 2020 - 12:23 PM, said:


I want to make clear from my original post that I love Jarl's list. I love the data and I do find it very useful.
I hope the message is that, there is a fallacy trap to leverage the list for determining whether or not someone has insight or not.

As an example;
someone like RWTumbleweed does not have the stats as some here would insist is paramount to be listened to. But I am not listening to RWTumbleweed for mech builds or design; he consistently provides valuable information and comms in game that are NOT directly reflected in his stats.


I would never listen to RWTumbleweed, period. He provides nothing that I can't discern myself, faster. This is exactly why those stats mattered. If his information was actually valuable and accurate, and his comms actually helped (they don't, it's just clutter) then even if he's poor at damage dealing, his "soft skills" would lead to his team achieving victory more often. The fact that he is below .500 in W/L shows that he actually makes any team he plays on worse, that his info isn't actually useful.

Players that enter every game and die 30 seconds to 1 minute in, then spend the rest of the match back seat piloting others is a hinderance, not an asset.

Edited by Vxheous, 16 January 2020 - 01:13 PM.


#35 Ilfi

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:39 PM

@OP, I challenge you to provide a better metric for game knowledge than the Jarl's List. It may not be perfect, but it's damn good. The average MWO player is dog-s*** terrible, and what's worse is that we have a lot of loud-mouth mouth-breathers drowning out the actually well-informed players; unless you have a 99% Jarl's or an EmP signature, it's doubtful that you should be handing out advice at all.

And before you check, no I don't have a 99% Jarl's. My best was 94% in solo queue before I got tired of the game. Don't worry about me; worry about the discussion at hand.

#36 D U N E

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:51 PM

Not sure if anyone has said this, but many mechs can be "Command" mechs and not be bad. The idea of command mechs is ridiculous. If you want to be a "command" mech, just play any mech and gather data of your surroundings. Then make calls on the data. 12 mechs with basic team work beats 11 mechs with basic team work.

I've been playing non meta and I still seem to be above a large percentage of the community. And playing meta/choosing a map that your mech is good at, is not gaming the system - gaming the system is using a mech like the ATM Veagle all of the time. Cause it can easily farm damage. - Ironically, gaming the system is more towards bringing lrms, and less towards using meta mechs.
Also as for top tier players needing good mechs, I have seen bowser still break 1k damage in I am sure a stock hellbringer with slight modifications.

To be fair, stats start to disintegrate around 80% in my opinion. You can be bad at the game but still know what you are doing around that stage. 90% is where you can be a 'bad' player but play a good mech to be in. Above that you need to be good at something.

Edited by D U N E, 16 January 2020 - 12:53 PM.


#37 Kodyn

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:52 PM

View PostIlfi, on 16 January 2020 - 12:39 PM, said:

@OP, I challenge you to provide a better metric for game knowledge than the Jarl's List. It may not be perfect, but it's damn good. The average MWO player is dog-s*** terrible, and what's worse is that we have a lot of loud-mouth mouth-breathers drowning out the actually well-informed players; unless you have a 99% Jarl's or an EmP signature, it's doubtful that you should be handing out advice at all.

And before you check, no I don't have a 99% Jarl's. My best was 94% in solo queue before I got tired of the game. Don't worry about me; worry about the discussion at hand.



I think that's a bit much, the EmP part at least. There's plenty of decent players and several units that are reliably solid on tactics, calls, etc. Just need to pay attention to who's who, this game is a much different experience when played in a vacuum and ignoring the community aspect. There's good shot-callers all over the place, and their Jarl's will reflect that. Of course there's obviously way more people just creating white noise, and many people won't know the difference if they haven't been around for a bit.

Several of the best players that I've dropped with and know in MWO don't actually ever call at all, at least not in QP- they just play their best, farm potatoes, and move on, and those guys have better stats than anyone in this thread. In some cases, a slightly less-skilled player willing to call at least halfway competently can still be helpful, provided they aren't giving actual bad calls. ultimately it's up to the individual who they want to listen to or ignore, and it's QP, so it doesn't really matter all that much in the end. Move on, next match. For the purposes of learning though, try to find those better guys and follow their lead.

#38 Scout Derek

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:54 PM

I was going to leave this reply up unedited, but then I realized that this thread really isn't worth my time.

Edited by Scout Derek, 16 January 2020 - 12:55 PM.


#39 Vxheous

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 12:54 PM

View PostKodyn, on 16 January 2020 - 12:52 PM, said:


Several of the best players that I've dropped with and know in MWO don't actually ever call at all, at least not in QP- they just play their best, farm potatoes, and move on, and those guys have better stats than anyone in this thread.


Can you name a couple of these guys for me? Just curious (it's not name and shame, it's praise, so it's ok to name)

#40 dario03

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Posted 16 January 2020 - 01:11 PM

As with most things, it depends on how far you take it. Is a 350avgms guy better than a 320avgms guy??? I don't know, maybe. Is the 350avgms guy better than the 180avgms guy??? I would bet yes, and since this is a pretty slow shooter its probably in large part due to knowledge of the game. There are of course exceptions and physical ability still plays some role, but if the 180avgms guy is disagreeing with multiple high avgms people about the effectiveness of a strat then he probably isn't one of those exceptions.





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