Anomalocaris, on 03 May 2020 - 05:41 AM, said:
Figured I'd try to pull a little data for my own edification this morning. You're welcome to take it or leave it. PGI has lots more than what I scraped, but I was curious as to whether someone's expressed attitude about the merge correlated with any changes to their in game performance metrics, namely WLR, AMS, KDR, etc. This is not a random sample. It is composed of people who self selected by posting their opinions in the forum. I'm not saying it represents the population as a whole, just those of us who post in the brown sea.
So I went through a lot of pages in this thread and pulled the names of people who commented positively or negatively about the change, starting 24 hrs after the implementation of the merge. I marked them as either positive, negative or neutral based upon their commentary. I then pulled their current season 46 stats from PGI. I only included people who had played more than 10 games so far this season so their stats would show. Obviously that eliminated persons like myself from the measurement.
Additionally I pulled their lifetime stats and season 45 stats from Jarls list. In the case of the couple people who had been listed as retired prior to season 46, their lifetime stats were copied into the season 45 column. Season 46 stats were pulled at approximately 8am EST from PGI and clearly will change as the season goes on. I do recognize that the merge occurred right at the end of season 45 so those stats can be slightly contaminated.
What did I find?
- Commenters who have played more than 10 matches in season 46 were 50% positive, 9% neutral and 41% negative
- WLR was up 9.1% for the sample group
- KDR was down 6.9%
- AMS was down 3.1%
- 33% of the sample had negatively correlated WLR and AMS changes, meaning that the sign change of these two stats was different (e.g. WLR went up while AMS went down).
-50% of the sample had negatively correlated opinions and WLR changes. This basically means that someone with a negative opinion had a positive change in their WLR, or vice versa
-There were several outliers with huge changes in their performance. The biggest was DAEDALOS513 with a 111% improvement in WLR from season 45. The largest negative WLR change was -35.7% (we won't name anyone here as that might violate name and shame terms).
-Lifetime WLR for the sample was 1.16
-Lifetime AMS was 248, so the sample is clearly better than the average for the population as a whole
Take aways.
-One limitation of this sample is that it does not weight by number of games played. That said, overall WLR changes must ultimately end up at zero since win/loss is a zero sum equation (excluding the exceedingly rare draws).
-The large number of negative correlations between opinions of the merge and performance in game was surprising. I expected that many people who liked the idea were being driven by improved in game performance and people who didn't like it were suffering more losses, poorer performance, etc (or at least these were expectations). And while that was the case for some persons, there were many examples of people with great increases in performance but poor opinions of change (biggest change in WLR for a player with a negative opinion of the change was 78.4%, 3rd best in the sample, yet he was quite critical of the merge). And there were a number of people who were effusive in their praise of the change but suffered big drops in performance (worst was -32% WLR and -48% KDR despite being very supportive of merge). I don't know if these performance changes will change opinion, or if the opinions are more ideological than reward driven and thus more fixed.
-WLR being up while KDR and AMS have gone down for the sample suggests to me that the sample population is being carried more by players not represented in the sample. There could be other explanations, but that's the one that pops up for me.
@Anomalocaris: Lots of interesting notes. I do have one question and I do apologize in advance, if it seems stupid, but please allow me explain.
Are you absolutely sure about wins and losses zeroing out? I am asking this, because there have been players in those old matches that no longer play and new players, who do not have old data to compare with, but still affect the current season one way or another. And players, who have too low total numbers of matches in either or both, but who still played, lost, won or tied.
Additionally, some people never or rarely play solo, so they effectively never face certain other players as opponents, while people like me, who almost always play alone or with friends, who play extremely little end up on both sides of matches. As an example of someone, who on the other hand plays a lot, I see fairly often and who is far above my skill level and in Tiers... RWTumbleweed has been in all five possible situations with my main account (ERescue) over the years... Tie, lose with, win with, lose against and win against.
I will add a few more notes of more generic kind. I am probably the lowest ability player, who posts at least sometimes on this forum (both my old and new account are solidly in Tier 5, though this newer account is not quite a close to the bottom (so far)). I have now played somewhat over 30 matches over the past about 3,5 days on my new account and my personal experience is as follows:
- I have only suffered one 0-12 defeat (today) and seen no 12-0 win (that I know of, I missed end results of couple of matches due to being AFK at the time).
- My wait times at least FEEL a LOT shorter than before the change.
- Cadet silencing of the VOIP felt restrictive and at least three times I died alone despite being close to other friendlies, because I was not able to call on nearby units for help.
- I would have to check closely, but I think my win / loss ratio on my new account is significantly better (at least so far) than the one on the older. Even so, I lose somewhat more games than I win.
- Cadet numbers seem to have dropped a lot in just a few days. On Thursday one match actually had EIGHT of us and SIX on one team...
I am going to continue playing now and check on this thread later on.
@All: Good luck and FUN games for everyone, I hope!