Jump to content

Psr Update And Hold On Patch.


717 replies to this topic

#461 MrMadguy

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,193 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 11:34 AM

Worst case scenarios:
1) This is done only to actually delay this change
2) This is done only to bait us, i.e. to increase our interest towards game, while not doing anything useful
3) This is done only to remove any responsibility from devs, i.e. say "it's players choice - not ours"

#462 Nightbird

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The God of Death
  • The God of Death
  • 7,518 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 12:09 PM

View PostThe Teddy Bear, on 12 June 2020 - 11:08 AM, said:


As I said earlier, I think W/L will be a tough one after the arrival of groups in the que. There should be no doubts any longer that a high end group player, if having similar skill in the group, will easily get themselves into somewhere along 4-10 W/L while a high end solo player will struggle badly to get to 2 W/L in this que.

I think that after some months with W/L online you will indeed have created a soup. Think about it, people playing solo/group 10/90, 20/80....90/10 etc - their W/L will be all over the place, even if they are on the same skill level. At any time someone changes from their main playing pattern, they will direcly imbalance the que, when slotted in according to you original simulation.

However, I think slotting in players after MS instead of W/L in your simulation would have produced a perfectly acceptable outcome as well, even if not as perfect as W/L. The slotting of the players are the golden nugget in your proposal.

I think MS will be a more stable parameter than W/L when you switch between groups or just playing solo in the new que. The main challenge to your proposal is, how do you slot in the solos if you have random groups to play with, or did you suggest anything about balancing groups that I missed?

It would be very interesting to see your simulation with random groups while still slotting in the solo in line with your original proposal to see what happens then.


First of all, you're talking about average Match Score right? That is also not one of the accepted options in this thread. PSR by MS in the OP will never stabilize at any value other than artificial caps.

The reason that average MS is bad is that it doesn't recognize groups at all when creating teams. Playing in a group is a major advantage to a player. You want a MM that recognizes that a grouped player is more dangerous than a solo player. By saying avgMS is stable, you're basically saying it cannot recognize a player becoming more effective and dangerous.

WL seesawing is good because the contribution of the player to the team is seesawing as he changes between playing solo and playing in a group. WL reflects that change, avgMS doesn't.

Edited by Nightbird, 12 June 2020 - 12:14 PM.


#463 The Teddy Bear

    Member

  • PipPipPip
  • Bad Company
  • Bad Company
  • 87 posts
  • LocationSomewhere cuddling

Posted 12 June 2020 - 12:20 PM

View PostNightbird, on 12 June 2020 - 12:09 PM, said:


First of all, you're talking about average Match Score right? That is also not one of the accepted options in this thread. PSR by MS in the OP will never stabilize at any value other than artificial caps.

The reason that average MS is bad is that it doesn't recognize groups at all when creating teams. Playing in a group is a major advantage to a player. You want a MM that recognizes that a grouped player is more dangerous than a solo player. Only WL does that. By saying avgMS is stable, you're basically staying it cannot tell the difference between the two.

WL seesawing is good because the contribution of the player to the team is seesawing as he changes between playing solo and playing in a group. WL reflects that change, avgMS doesn't.


Well, the variance between solo and group W/L, compared to the variance in solo and group MS? Did you ever investigate that?

#464 Nightbird

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The God of Death
  • The God of Death
  • 7,518 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 12:24 PM

View PostThe Teddy Bear, on 12 June 2020 - 12:20 PM, said:

Well, the variance between solo and group W/L, compared to the variance in solo and group MS? Did you ever investigate that?


No because PGI never released data separating solos and groups. According to verbatim reports, WLR in groups increase greatly, think 2-5x higher WLR. avgMS on the other hand doesn't change much at all, people say it remains unchanged.

#465 The Teddy Bear

    Member

  • PipPipPip
  • Bad Company
  • Bad Company
  • 87 posts
  • LocationSomewhere cuddling

Posted 12 June 2020 - 12:26 PM

View PostNightbird, on 12 June 2020 - 12:24 PM, said:

No because PGI never released data separating solos and groups. According to verbatim reports, WLR in groups increase greatly, think 2-5x higher WLR. avgMS on the other hand doesn't change much at all, people say it remains unchanged.


Thanks this is in line with my stomach feeling.

#466 VonBruinwald

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The Undisputed
  • The Undisputed
  • 3,460 posts
  • LocationRandis IV

Posted 12 June 2020 - 01:04 PM

View PostOneTeamPlayer, on 12 June 2020 - 07:14 AM, said:

How are we intended to come to a community consensus from a 20+ page thread which over the course of a week has had zero developer input on any of the suggestions?


Looks like the "community consensus" is coming from an off-site discord which isn't being advertised:

https://twitter.com/...845618194280448

#467 Dauntless Blint

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Fire
  • Fire
  • 408 posts
  • LocationPlaying other games.

Posted 12 June 2020 - 01:05 PM

So Player win loss, and global chassis MS or K/D. Because MS is an end of match stat trying to do the poor mans version.

That bit about groups being 2-5x better, quite crucial I mean how can we even begin to have a conversation without stuff like that.

So player W/L is huge. Chassis W/L or K/D or MS is the next. <<( we do have to pick the chassis before the match surely they have global chassis average MS,K/D.)

Because every time you change chassis you corrupt the match maker for several games, so everyone corrupting the mm for several games MM becomes broken.

If you want free consultants we need more information on what data is logged.

Edited by Dauntless Blint, 12 June 2020 - 01:24 PM.


#468 Z Paradox

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Bad Company
  • Bad Company
  • 102 posts
  • Locationozz

Posted 12 June 2020 - 01:13 PM

View PostVonBruinwald, on 12 June 2020 - 01:04 PM, said:


Looks like the "community consensus" is coming from an off-site discord which isn't being advertised:

https://twitter.com/...845618194280448


I like idea from that post for MS ratings...





Posted Image








codiene42

@Codiene42
·Jun 11

Replying to
@Paul_Inouye
@NoGutsNoGalaxyand
@russ_bullock
Well, for one thing, the top 3, in order, things that should be accounted for are 1. Solo kills, 2. kmdds, and the 3. kills.

#469 OneTeamPlayer

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Ace Of Spades
  • 399 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 01:34 PM

View PostVonBruinwald, on 12 June 2020 - 01:04 PM, said:


Looks like the "community consensus" is coming from an off-site discord which isn't being advertised:

https://twitter.com/...845618194280448


So they're responding more on external media than they are in a thread on their own official forums.

Yeah, that really says it all about this thread and this overhaul, doesn't it?

#470 Nightbird

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The God of Death
  • The God of Death
  • 7,518 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 01:57 PM

Posted Image

Please like my tweets if you agree and maybe Paul will read them.

Edited by Nightbird, 12 June 2020 - 01:58 PM.


#471 VonBruinwald

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The Undisputed
  • The Undisputed
  • 3,460 posts
  • LocationRandis IV

Posted 12 June 2020 - 02:00 PM

View PostNightbird, on 12 June 2020 - 01:57 PM, said:

Please like my tweets if you agree and maybe Paul will read them.


Sorry, I don't have a twitter, if I did I'd be commenting on the "community consensus" being limited to a private group.

#472 Nightbird

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The God of Death
  • The God of Death
  • 7,518 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 02:09 PM

View PostVonBruinwald, on 12 June 2020 - 02:00 PM, said:

Sorry, I don't have a twitter, if I did I'd be commenting on the "community consensus" being limited to a private group.


Don't worry about it. I was in that group but my idea was rejected because of the reason... and I paraphrase "The community is too stupid to understand it". I have a screenshot lol

#473 Capt Deadpool

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Ace Of Spades
  • 305 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 02:22 PM

View PostNightbird, on 12 June 2020 - 12:09 PM, said:

The reason that average MS is bad is that it doesn't recognize groups at all when creating teams. Playing in a group is a major advantage to a player. You want a MM that recognizes that a grouped player is more dangerous than a solo player. By saying avgMS is stable, you're basically saying it cannot recognize a player becoming more effective and dangerous.

WL seesawing is good because the contribution of the player to the team is seesawing as he changes between playing solo and playing in a group. WL reflects that change, avgMS doesn't.


OR, (assuming individual players cannot be assigned different PSRs tied to each mech they use and whether or not they are playing in a group or solo, based on W/L history rolling avg./post-reset values) utilizing Dauntless's idea you apply some kind of modifier if someone is grouped such as 1.25x multiplier in 2-man, 2x in 3man, 2.5xin 4-man or whatever the data shows so that MM is at least taking into account a PSR that effectively increases as players group up. Multiple PSRs seem ideal so if someone has a 7-1 W/L in a 3-man and 2-1 W/L playing solo MM knows exactly how to rank them...

I am no programmer, however...

Edited by Capt Deadpool, 12 June 2020 - 02:24 PM.


#474 Nightbird

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The God of Death
  • The God of Death
  • 7,518 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 02:27 PM

View PostCapt Deadpool, on 12 June 2020 - 02:22 PM, said:

OR


If making things more complicated is on the table, there are many ways to improve the MM further. PSR=WLR is simply the K.I.S.S. solution.

#475 OneTeamPlayer

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Ace Of Spades
  • 399 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 02:30 PM

View PostNightbird, on 12 June 2020 - 02:09 PM, said:

Don't worry about it. I was in that group but my idea was rejected because of the reason... and I paraphrase "The community is too stupid to understand it". I have a screenshot lol


Post the screenshot.

#476 Nightbird

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The God of Death
  • The God of Death
  • 7,518 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 02:36 PM

View PostOneTeamPlayer, on 12 June 2020 - 02:30 PM, said:

Post the screenshot.


Can't, it insults the community. I PMed it to you.

#477 Poor-Life-Choices

    Member

  • PipPip
  • Chu-sa
  • Chu-sa
  • 27 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 02:57 PM

View PostNightbird, on 10 June 2020 - 08:29 PM, said:


How would you handle teams of 2, 3, 4?

As far as how the MM organizes players from tiers, for all solo players matches this is already how it does it. The reason it doesn't work is because past MS is a poor predictor of performance on the team. (For the people that haven't hit the T1 cap, total past MS earned is their PSR bar location today.) It doesn't go by the 5 tiers but rather by a more granular number in the background. (The EXP bar line)

This is also why all the proposals based on MS won't work. Past MS is only loosely related to odds of winning future matches, whereas past WLR is strongly related. Picked any match score on Jarl's list (not adjusted) and look up and down the list at the player's WLR. You'll see a huge variance. This is clearer when you take all the data and graph it, showing a clear pattern that MS is inferior to WLR.

I analyzed Nightbirds Jarls list data vs my data for the most recent 6 months and vs the data from my first 6 months.
Nightbirds WLR varies 40% vs his MS which only varies 10%

My current average WLR is less than it was when I first started, but my match score is higher. Hmm, presumably I'm a better player now. In all three cases WLR varied much more over the period vs AVG match score. So explain to me how WLR will do a better job of identifying pilot skill?
https://www.flickr.c...2791@N05/N26583



Edited by Socal Bronco, 12 June 2020 - 03:15 PM.


#478 JoeCold

    Member

  • Pip
  • Bad Company
  • Bad Company
  • 18 posts
  • LocationMallory's World

Posted 12 June 2020 - 03:00 PM

It occurs to me that if the population forces the matchmaking system to mix tiers to any degree, shouldn't the PSR adjustments for the match handicap above and below the average of the match. That is, shouldn't players above the average tier in that match have a penalty modifier to the rest of their PSR calculation and vice versa? Otherwise mixing tiers drives everyone to the extremes, albeit at different rates depending on ones distance from average.

#479 Nightbird

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The God of Death
  • The God of Death
  • 7,518 posts

Posted 12 June 2020 - 03:01 PM

View PostSocal Bronco, on 12 June 2020 - 02:57 PM, said:

I analyzed Nightbirds Jarls list data vs my data for the most recent 6 months and vs the data from my first 6 months.
Nightbirds WLR varies 40% vs his MS which only varies 10%


You have to analyze the data for all players to see trends. A single person's data isn't useful.

#480 Horseman

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • The Mercenary
  • The Mercenary
  • 4,694 posts
  • LocationPoland

Posted 12 June 2020 - 03:07 PM

View PostVonBruinwald, on 12 June 2020 - 01:04 PM, said:

Looks like the "community consensus" is coming from an off-site discord which isn't being advertised:
https://twitter.com/...845618194280448

It has been advertised... you just missed when and where.
They're working on their proposals. In an environment that's more conducive to actual work as opposed to getting constantly interrupted by armchair mechwarriors who think they have a constitutional right to be in Tier 1.
Don't worry, even if you missed the bus you'll get to see the proposals when they're presented.

Edited by Horseman, 12 June 2020 - 03:08 PM.






1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users