220 replies to this topic

[PyroAcid]

you're saying as if the same thing were to happen agian it whould have the same outcome

[Ashla Mason]

dal10, on 22 October 2012 - 03:44 PM, said:

Never said said rebellion would be successful. But every one draws on the clan's resources more and more. enough rebellions you would either be forced to leave the planet alone, or said too many troops from the front back in order to stop a counter attack. either way the clans get ground down.

Again, unless you are able to convince a large portion of the population (I'm thinking in the neighborhod of +20%) that they need to stand up and fight/support the fight then you're screwed, since the clan will simply shrug it's shoulders and go on a rampage through the housing blocks where they think the greatest concentration of resistance fighters are.

On top of that, people need to remember that the planets of the inner sphere aren't neccesasrily garden worlds; most are in fact only barely inhabitable and require offworld resources to survive; in such cases all that would be required to get the populace in line would be to either cut off the supplies or (in the event that a serious example needs to be made) targeting the planet's agrodomes (Greenhouses on worlds where conventional farming is impossible).

I'll tell you what though: If you or anyone else here can provide me with a list of worlds where the clans have been successfully driven away by wide spread civil disorder and said list excedes 7 in number, I'll give this matter some additional thought.

[Vodkavaiator]

Using the cannon literature as the ultimate argument seems a bit poor, as the writers often had an intention or goal with the story and would alter reality so to speak to accomplish that. (There are plenty of examples of cannon characters, events, etc. that defy all logic).

Canonically the events are set in stone and there really isn't that much to discuss, this thread is if I understand correctly more of a hypothetical/theoretical discussion.

Edited by Vodkavaiator, 22 October 2012 - 04:27 PM.

[ShotgunWillie]

IceSerpent, on 22 October 2012 - 02:59 PM, said:

Really? When did any conquerors fail to take away tanks, aircraft, artillery pieces, naval vessels, etc.?

The assumption being that without tanks, aircraft, artillery pieces and naval vessels, a rebellion can never be successful?

Small arms, explosives and incidiearies can be useful against all of those things.

Sticky bombs versus tanks (they use something similar in Battletech cannon, see the Gray Death Legion's anti-mech infantry tactics developed by Ramage) as well as IEDs, all directed at known vulenrable points of the tanks (very top of cupola, underside of tank's main body, and the treads) can remove tanks from the equation.

Aircraft have to A) land eventually (pilots need to sleep , bombs/missiles/bullets need to be replaced) and 2) be re-armed and re-fueled. Refueling can be accomplished mid-air, but large quantities of fuel have to be stored on the ground along with the munitions. Hit the fuel and munitions while they're on the ground and vulnerable and you reduce and/or eliminate aircraft from the equation. Kill the pilots and/or bomb the planes when they land and again, you remove the aircraft from the equation.

Artillery pieces are vulnerable to the same tactics used against tanks, their crews are more vulnerable to small arms fire, and artillery pieces can be captured and turned against their original owners. While this is more difficult with modern artilery pieces, it was a common tactic in wars past (American Revolution and Civil War as well as the Texas Revolution [that would be the one where the people of Texas rebelled against Mexico, aka "Remember the Alamo!"] to name a few.) And if turning them against

Naval vessels aren't immune to attack, either. I give you pirates as a perfect example. Not just Anne Bonney, Black Beard and pirates of days past, but modern day pirates. Perfectly legitimate civilian vessels can be used for such things, and attacking commecial shipping or unprotected supply convoys has always been a common tactic. Additionally, even attacking warships is possible, although a somewhat more desperate move. Need I remind you of the attack on the USS Cole in 2000, which was carried out by suicide bombers piloting a small craft and applying exposives directly to the hull. Then, of course, there are the Fire Ships that date all the way back to ancient Greece and would be simple enough for an insurgent movement to improvise.

Ashla Mason, on 22 October 2012 - 04:12 PM, said:

Again, unless you are able to convince a large portion of the population (I'm thinking in the neighborhod of +20%) that they need to stand up and fight/support the fight then you're screwed, since the clan will simply shrug it's shoulders and go on a rampage through the housing blocks where they think the greatest concentration of resistance fighters are.

It's been estimated that only about 3% (three percent) of the American Colonists actively fought against the British military during the American Revolutionary War and that they were actively supported by 10% (ten percent) of the population and another 20% (twenty percent) claimed that they supported the cause, but did little to nothing to actually help. Toward the end of that same war, 30% (thirty percent) of the colonial population actually fought on the side of the British Army. I'm just sayin....

[Ashla Mason]

ShotgunWillie, on 22 October 2012 - 04:23 PM, said:

It's been estimated that only about 3% (three percent) of the American Colonists actively fought against the British military during the American Revolutionary War and that they were actively supported by 10% (ten percent) of the population and another 20% (twenty percent) claimed that they supported the cause, but did little to nothing to actually help. Toward the end of that same war, 30% (thirty percent) of the colonial population actually fought on the side of the British Army. I'm just sayin....

You mean the british empire that was seperated by an ocean and was busy dealing with post revolutionary france? That british empire?

But hey we're just jawing here...

[IceSerpent]

Vodkavaiator, on 22 October 2012 - 03:05 PM, said:

When were any of those things required for a successful insurgency? I wasn't aware that most of the tools used by the Iraq/Afghanistan resistance was on the massive scale...

When you are facing mechs and elementals, which was never the case in Iraq/Afganistan. Also, the fact that NATO is not very likely to nuke a city makes RL insurgents feel much more comfortable than hypothetical ones in BT universe.

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To clarify, you do understand that I agree the clans are far superior in any conventional battle? I am not trying to postulate that the clans could not completely crush the IS in the short term in any such battles, rather I think that in the long run they would run out of resources, be faced with internal problems as a result of constant fighting or simply be put in an unattainable strategic position due to over-extension and numbers.

The part that I don't understand is why they would run out of resources after taking a substantial chunk of IS territory (and possibly continuing to take more and more planets), why you think that there would be constant fighting (the "race" was only to Terra, after that they can proceed as fast/slow as they want) and what internal problems would arise if fighting is indeed constant, and why would they over-extend?

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Secondly, this seems like an extremely unrealistic view of what the clans generally demanded of subjugated territories. Both based on literature and what one would reasonably imagine a conquering faction to do.
Sure some clans were more lenient than others, but it is still not as if there were not major cultural and social differences.

We can only go by the lore on this, but there are absolutely no indications that there are either major differences betoween civilian parts of Clan and IS societies, or that Clans tried to impose something drastically different on the worlds they conquered.

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Considering we have wars in our own world merely based on which interpretation of a certain faith is "more" correct, I think you might also be underestimating how readily people find differences in each other.

Oh, people certainly find differences in each other very readily, but the question is what they do (or don't do) about it. When nobody really prevents you from practicing your religion or traditions and you know that rebellion can easily cause your friends and family to end up dead (i.e. Edo), you might think twice about grabbing that hunting rifle.

[Vodkavaiator]

IceSerpent, on 22 October 2012 - 04:47 PM, said:

When you are facing mechs and elementals, which was never the case in Iraq/Afganistan. Also, the fact that NATO is not very likely to nuke a city makes RL insurgents feel much more comfortable than hypothetical ones in BT universe.

Though it might be worse, it is not as if facing a Battlemech or Elemental is particularly more terrifying or dangerous than facing tank, apc, helicopter or jet. At least not from the perspective of an insurgent, the odds are stacked against you in all of those cases.

Again however, a mech, tank or battle armor doesn't need to be engaged in a manner that prompts return fire or even action before it is too late.

As others have pointed out however, the clans sort of need at least some of the IS population alive to actually reap the benefits of conquered territories(production), hence full out nuclear war is not a very viable idea.

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The part that I don't understand is why they would run out of resources after taking a substantial chunk of IS territory (and possibly continuing to take more and more planets), why you think that there would be constant fighting (the "race" was only to Terra, after that they can proceed as fast/slow as they want) and what internal problems would arise if fighting is indeed constant, and why would they over-extend?

*Losses of troops(which take years to replace and often entail the loss of veteran troops which take even longer to replace, leave vacuums in leadership)
*Losses of equipment/weapons(which can be salvaged but not always in a an acceptable number or state)
*Matters of logistics and supplies in general
*Resources don't just magically add to the Clan's war making ability, they need to somehow maintain production and supply lines which are both rather vulnerable to sabotage or attacks
*Having to hold conquered territories and planets form any IS counter attacks or resistant groups = having to spread out the already numerically disadvantaged clan forces
*Internal Strife in regards to the civilian portion of the clans probably growing weary after a certain period of fighting, warrior culture is all well and good but eventually everyone needs a break.

Edited by Vodkavaiator, 22 October 2012 - 05:06 PM.

[IceSerpent]

ShotgunWillie, on 22 October 2012 - 04:23 PM, said:

The assumption being that without tanks, aircraft, artillery pieces and naval vessels, a rebellion can never be successful?

The assumption being that yes, you can use an IED and damage a mech, or a tank, or an aerospace fighter (if it's based on planet and not on an orbiting dropship), problem is that the rest of the garrison just might go level a few city blocks in retaliation. When such scenario is likely, locals can either not rebel at all or risk simply running out of population alltogether (which invaders that can create more population practically at will wouldn't really mind all that much).
This is the diference between BT fiction and RL - in RL we don't normally go wax a few thousands of random civilians in the area after each terrorist attack (for better or worse).

[Vodkavaiator]

Then the population can return the favor, considering they have a population in the millions or more( depending on the planet reaching the billions), they can still probably do rather well for themselves. (Ask yourself how many inhabited planets are in the IS considering the populations involved both military and civilian and then how many jumpships/dropships/mechs/aerospace fighters/etc the clans had at the start of the invasion and if these really enough to manage a singular blitz to end resistance throughout all of the IS?

Though, I don't expect that would improve the relationship between the Clans and their new subjects(for an example see the Smoke Jaguars). However, again destroying parts of planet they wish to control seems less than intelligent for production reasons.

Besides, it should take some time for the Clans to replace their losses even with their Iron Wombs, I mean they still need to properly train said replacements, wait a couple of years for them to grow up and then send them back to the front.

Edited by Vodkavaiator, 22 October 2012 - 05:27 PM.

[Toothman]

No, they are cowards when you get right down to it. Cowards can't hold squat. Only reason they had any success is better tech. No grown in a can coward that is scared of girls will ever hold anything for any significant amount of time.

[ShotgunWillie]

Ashla Mason, on 22 October 2012 - 04:29 PM, said:

You mean the british empire that was seperated by an ocean and was busy dealing with post revolutionary france? That british empire?

But hey we're just jawing here...

Yep, that one. Of course, that doesn't really detract from my point, which was that it doesn't take 20% or more of the local population actively participating in resistance to succeed.

When standing in open field and trading volleys, the British had serious advantages (better equipment, better training, stronger supply lines). Superior tactics can make up for inferior numbers. This is something the colonists used against the British, largely adopting the hit and run guerilla warfare tactics learned from fighting against the Native American tribes. Attacking supply lines, firing one or two volleys into unsuspecting British troops from cover and disappearing into the forest, and raiding equipment and supplies at night while the bulk of British forces slept.

[Ashla Mason]

Vodkavaiator, on 22 October 2012 - 05:07 PM, said:

Then the population can return the favor, considering they have a population in the millions or more( depending on the planet reaching the billions), they can still probably do rather well for themselves.

I like how you think that the people would be willing to throw themselves into the meat grinder in hopes that they can jam it by sheer numbers.

Seriously: do you have any idea how incredibly fragile civilian militia's morale is?

[Vodkavaiator]

Of course I don't expect that all civilians would throw themselves, but are you aware how hard is it to subject the entire population of an entire planet?

Even if only 1% are actively resisting any clan force would be extremely outnumbered unless they decided to focus their forces in which case they in turn give the IS breathing room in other areas.

The Clans are not numerous enough in population or military forces to be able to contend with even a small percentage of the IS actively resisting or fighting them.

In regards to casualties we could for instance look at how willing the USSR, both as a government and the people in general were to simply throw millions of troops and civilians into the meat grinder to simply jam the German war machine. Certainly in general the civilian population were more than willing to fight off the invading German army, in-spite of the atrocious conditions that entailed and even equally poor treatment at hands of their own government.

Edited by Vodkavaiator, 22 October 2012 - 05:37 PM.

[Ashla Mason]

Toothman, on 22 October 2012 - 05:19 PM, said:

No, they are cowards when you get right down to it. Cowards can't hold squat. Only reason they had any success is better tech. No grown in a can coward that is scared of girls will ever hold anything for any significant amount of time.

1. There are a lot of words I could use to describe the clans (both good and bad). Cowards isn't one of them.
2. The clanners are less afraid of lady parts then the people of the inner sphere.

[ShotgunWillie]

IceSerpent, on 22 October 2012 - 04:58 PM, said:

The assumption being that yes, you can use an IED and damage a mech, or a tank, or an aerospace fighter (if it's based on planet and not on an orbiting dropship), problem is that the rest of the garrison just might go level a few city blocks in retaliation. When such scenario is likely, locals can either not rebel at all or risk simply running out of population alltogether (which invaders that can create more population practically at will wouldn't really mind all that much).

And in doing so, they alienate even more of the population, leading to a larger, more widespread rebellion. Look at the Gray Death Legion books for examples of this, particularly the first two. "Winning hearts and minds" is extremely important to both sides, and the rebels have home field advantage. All the local rebels have to do is keep hounding the invaders and keep their own collateral damage to a minimum (indiscriminate car bombings and other IEDs in areas of heavy population or civilian traffic are a bad idea). For the occupation forces, leveling city blocks out of spite creates propaganda in favor of the local rebels.

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This is the diference between BT fiction and RL - in RL we don't normally go wax a few thousands of random civilians in the area after each terrorist attack (for better or worse).

You're right. That is a major difference, though it's been done. Hiroshima and Nagasaki, for example (yes, I know, not a response to an act of terrorism, per se, but it is an example of going out to "wax a few thousands of random civilians")? And of course, the Fire bombing attacks on Japan. So no, not normal, but not unheard of.

[IceSerpent]

Vodkavaiator, on 22 October 2012 - 05:07 PM, said:

Besides, it should take some time for the Clans to replace their losses even with their Iron Wombs, I mean they still need to properly train said replacements, wait a couple of years for them to grow up and then send them back to the front.

You seem to be under impression that conquest of IS is akin to blitzkrieg. There's no reason for Clans not to slow down the pace if necessary, besides the pace of the invasion even when they were racing to Terra was fairly slow - invasion started in August 3049, battle of Tukayyid started in May 3052, almost 3 years later. IS at the same time is nowhere near being united, the only thing they have going is private "non-agression pact" between Theodore and Hanse. Marik and Liao are not very keen on even helping the war effort, let alone participate in it directly. So, we are looking at 16 Clans as a unified faction vs. FedCom + Combine with no real time limit.

[dal10]

Ashla Mason, on 22 October 2012 - 04:12 PM, said:

Again, unless you are able to convince a large portion of the population (I'm thinking in the neighborhod of +20%) that they need to stand up and fight/support the fight then you're screwed, since the clan will simply shrug it's shoulders and go on a rampage through the housing blocks where they think the greatest concentration of resistance fighters are.

On top of that, people need to remember that the planets of the inner sphere aren't neccesasrily garden worlds; most are in fact only barely inhabitable and require offworld resources to survive; in such cases all that would be required to get the populace in line would be to either cut off the supplies or (in the event that a serious example needs to be made) targeting the planet's agrodomes (Greenhouses on worlds where conventional farming is impossible).

I'll tell you what though: If you or anyone else here can provide me with a list of worlds where the clans have been successfully driven away by wide spread civil disorder and said list excedes 7 in number, I'll give this matter some additional thought.

you aren't getting my point. YOU DO NOT HAVE TO DRIVE THEM OFF YOURSELVES. you tie up enough garrison troops, it weakens their ability to fight any incursion by the IS. The clans do not have enough people. I would be impressed if they consisted of even 100 million people. 100 million vs 2 trillion. 20,000 spheroids per clan member. 5% of that entire number fighting back is still 1000 to one.

Edited by dal10, 22 October 2012 - 05:44 PM.

[Vodkavaiator]

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You seem to be under impression that conquest of IS is akin to blitzkrieg. There's no reason for Clans not to slow down the pace if necessary, besides the pace of the invasion even when they were racing to Terra was fairly slow - invasion started in August 3049, battle of Tukayyid started in May 3052, almost 3 years later. IS at the same time is nowhere near being united, the only thing they have going is private "non-agression pact" between Theodore and Hanse. Marik and Liao are not very keen on even helping the war effort, let alone participate in it directly. So, we are looking at 16 Clans as a unified faction vs. FedCom + Combine with no real time limit.

It should be or rather needs to be for the Clan's to have chance of success, that is the point.

A slow and drawn out war is exactly what the IS would strategically desire. It gives them more time to mass troops, produce more equipment and to resolve any diplomatic issues to unite and fight off the clans.

Edited by Vodkavaiator, 22 October 2012 - 05:44 PM.

[IceSerpent]

ShotgunWillie, on 22 October 2012 - 05:35 PM, said:

And in doing so, they alienate even more of the population, leading to a larger, more widespread rebellion. Look at the Gray Death Legion books for examples of this, particularly the first two. "Winning hearts and minds" is extremely important to both sides, and the rebels have home field advantage. All the local rebels have to do is keep hounding the invaders and keep their own collateral damage to a minimum (indiscriminate car bombings and other IEDs in areas of heavy population or civilian traffic are a bad idea). For the occupation forces, leveling city blocks out of spite creates propaganda in favor of the local rebels.

That depends on the number of city blocks being levelled - from Lethal Heritage:

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[...]
"Apparently, the Ryugawa-gumi made life unpleasant for the garrison troops once the front line forces left for new conquests. Instead of sending elite troops back down to restore order, they used their orbital fleet to destroy Edo, and at the same time, broadcast its destruction to the other major urban centers on the planet." The Kanrei swallowed hard. "Resistance, as you might imagine, ceased overnight."
[...]

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You're right. That is a major difference, though it's been done. Hiroshima and Nagasaki, for example (yes, I know, not a response to an act of terrorism, per se, but it is an example of going out to "wax a few thousands of random civilians")? And of course, the Fire bombing attacks on Japan. So no, not normal, but not unheard of.

Yep, it has been done, and after Hiroshima and Nagasaki Japanese were not very eager to continue the fight - laying to waste major civilian areas tends to have a very negative impact on the morale.

[Ashla Mason]

Vodkavaiator, on 22 October 2012 - 05:28 PM, said:

Of course I don't expect that all civilians would throw themselves, but are you aware how hard is it to subject the entire population of an entire planet?

Even if only 1% are actively resisting any clan force would be extremely outnumbered.

It's actually not as hard as you seem to think it is, since a lot of planets are barely inhabitable and require supplies to be shipped in or specialized facilities to provide the basic requisites of life (like say... food).

By the same coin, those same planets can't support large populations that are spread out all over the planet. So the population of say... 1 million will be concentrated in 3 or 4 locations, making it much easier to isolate and control any attempts at insurection. once isolated, the clan forces can simply state to the local populace "get your people under control or you will suffer for it."

If the rebels aren't total dicks putting their petty ideology ahead of the well being of their world they would stop. Hell, the local populace would be half as likely to hand them over to the authorities to prevent a pointless bloodbath.

Also: you do know that the clans would be just as likely (in the event of the clans having to root the insurgents out) to transfer loyalist populace to the planet?