174 replies to this topic

[Lerzpftz]

zmeul, on 06 November 2012 - 07:47 AM, said:

or just delayed reaction ...
....
Also note that I didn't collect the data on regular intervals.

Starting on 30th 5PM my local time (GMT+2), the number of total users was 386256; to the moment of posting this, the number is 393378.
From that day, there are 7122 new user accounts created.
...

Today is the patch day, and hopefully some of the issues will get addressed, and also maybe interest in the game will rise.
This is why I will continue to monitor the number of user accounts; I will return in 1 week with another batch of data collected starting today.


If you find an irregularity or have some comment, please do tell.

Hi.Thanks for putting in all the effort, i appreciate those informations. I still want to throw in a few thoughts:

Registrations for MWO began a long time ago, not sure about it, but this may have been something like 9 months ago. So they had maybe 9 months or so, before open beta started. Which would be somewhat in the range of 2000 accounts per day registering. I think this i mostly because of more media coverage when they announced the title and all the old-time mech guys getting an account and hoping to get access to closed beta. That said, the open beta was to early and may have left a bad impression for a lot of people.

I really hope they are putting some money in ads and more media coverage when they go online with the meta-game and announce release. Whenever that may be.

But in the end i'm still not that worried about MWOs fate, seeing that a lot of really crappy games (WoT comes to mind) survive since the overall players base of people playing computer games at all, has been growing since 20 years. A niche game couldn't be supported 10-15 years ago, since worldwide playernumbers where what? 10-20 million or something? Now that may be more in the range of almost a billion? I think they'll make it in the long run, even when they make some crappy decisions on that way.

[wuselfuzz]

http://www.xkcd.com/1102/

Final Fantasy XI just became 10 years old, and they had just below 500000 subscribers most of the time.

Edited by wuselfuzz, 06 November 2012 - 09:32 AM.

[Lerzpftz]

zmeul, on 06 November 2012 - 09:23 AM, said:

how is that incredibly well?! it went globally open, people are free to join in and play, there will be no more DB wipes

How many people, that are not die hard mechwarrior fans, know that? And know there will be no more resets?

It'll take at least a month or so until the word has spread. At least i know of 2-4 friends of mine, that they want to give it a try, as soon as they have got a little more time.

Edited by Lerzpftz, 06 November 2012 - 09:32 AM.

[BlackWidow]

Alex Wolfe, on 06 November 2012 - 08:44 AM, said:

Nonsense. In my foolish youth, I played WoW, from solo play and casual fishing until max level to heroic raids.

Want to know how the starting experience looks?

Ding! Level up! Took only a couple boars!

Ding! Ding! (oh cool found a nice uncommon item!) DingDingDing!

*ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED* [no achievements back when I started, there are now]

*discovered XYZ! looks amazing!* (should I learn alchemy, or enchanting?)

Ding! Dingadingadingadingding! ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED!

In short... you're being showered with praise, prizes and hooks and all the time your character is growing. And that's on the trial account. Before you even pay them a single buck, the game is set up to make you want more. For a newbie, it's a journey alongside your character. The grind doesn't appear until way, way later.

Eventually you hit the level cap, but you can set up your character any way you want along the way, both talent-and-cosmetic-wise, and you DO get experience. You get to keep him, his name and his progress in case you want to come back and play at a later date. Anything else would be nonsense.

Want to know how MWO starting player experience compares?



"Pay or no fun allowed"

I realize someone else opened the WOW comparison first, but you really can't compare the two. "Apples and Oranges" cliche' has never been more appropriate.

Combat Sim...NOT an MMO. Retail combat sims only recently even allowed persistence and experience (ie. DINGS!)
Blizzard has TENS OF MILLIONS of dollars and 5+ years of dev time. PGI has had a YEAR and <10% of WOW's budget.
And here come the kicker.......Blizzard gets $15 bucks a month. PGI gets....what ever people decide to pay. And when.

Now, I don't want to hide the forest in the trees here as many of us are aware of the monthly sub vs. F2P models. PGI chose that bed and must now lie in it. And while I agree that I would have chosen to wait for more "content" and "balance" and fewer "bugs" before declaring OB, I'm not a game developer. I would find it difficult to believe PGI did not take this all into consideration, and despite wanting to be further along (who wouldn't) they chose to launch anyway. Why? Who know. Hopefully someday soon the game can be "called" successful and self-sustaining and we might get a detailed "post-mortum" as to why they made the decision they did.

Summary: There seems to be a lot of negative opinions about this game from some vocal players and a bad first experience can pretty much write off non-BT/MW fans off for good.

But, it's still beta, patches scheduled weekly...and it costs you NOTHING to play, if you choose.

[Comguard]

Thanks for the effort zmeul.

Considering that we are in a situation where even founders, the most die-hard mechwarrior fans out there, are often saying "I'll stop playing until they fix XYZ" you get an idea of how appealing this game is to newcomers.

PGI is a studio of 60 people. No idea how much money they need per month to pay the wages, the infrastructure and make a little profit.

[zmeul]

Lerzpftz, on 06 November 2012 - 09:31 AM, said:

How many people, that are not die hard mechwarrior fans, know that? And know there will be no more resets?

It'll take at least a month or so until the word has spread. At least i know of 2-4 friends of mine, that they want to give it a try, as soon as they have got a little more time.

you know the OPEN BETA trailer they put up 4 days ago?
it has currently 9546 views on YouTube and 55024 on GameTrailers - where are the numbers!? since then there were about 5K new accounts


I would happily be wrong, I'd love for PGI to come to this thread and show their data

hey PGI, I dare you .. I triple-double dare you to post your data since OBT started

Edited by zmeul, 06 November 2012 - 09:50 AM.

[BlackWidow]

zmeul, on 06 November 2012 - 09:23 AM, said:

you see a flat line, not a single blip, spike of any sorts - almost flatline dead

please, do tell

Well, if you look at the data that way, then the number of new players to jump into this "awful" open beta is negligible and therefore the opinions and dollars of the "non-fan" won't make or break this game either way.

Let's do this. Let us (as people not actually developing the game) give it more than TWO WEEKS to decide if the game will fail or not. It's two weeks enough time to decide if a stand alone retail title is successful? Yes. Is two weeks enough time to figure out whether a movie is BOOM or BOMB? Usually.

But, that is one of the things about F2P titles and soft releases. Lower risk, lower initial expectations, continual upgrades/additions allowed through micro transactions.

Please. Look at Star Trek Online. This February will be three years now for STO.

It was initially $15/mon. They fell dreadfully short of promised content, PVP, etc. Eventually they went F2P just to stay in business. From a million initial pre-purchases they dropped down to about 100k active subscribers. Since going F2P it now has a vibrant community as well as glowing reviews due to recent patches and upgrades. This also worked for TURBINE (Oh, AC2 how I miss you) who saw revenues TRIPLE! for LotRO and DDO after moving to F2P models. TRIPLE.

So, the potential is out there. And F2P monetization has already shown you can go from bad reviews, low numbers and general malaise to a fun, diverse and profitable game.

Edited by BlackWidow, 06 November 2012 - 10:09 AM.

[Bubba Wilkins]

Data presentation is flawed as are the interpretations.

You should be charting users added per day from the creation of Founders until now. Then you would see the spikes you are looking for. Using the running total method you have with 300,000+ existing users as a baseline skews the results.

Edited by Bubba Wilkins, 06 November 2012 - 09:55 AM.

[Alex Wolfe]

BlackWidow, on 06 November 2012 - 09:43 AM, said:

I realize someone else opened the WOW comparison first, but you really can't compare the two. "Apples and Oranges" cliche' has never been more appropriate.

All I meant to say was this:

one game lets the player get his character right off the bat ("the part of the game universe that is mine"), hooks the player up with XP, "material" gain and a ton of content to explore for free before asking for money. It lets you have so much fun you'll want to pay to have more. Fun first, grind + pay later.

the other prevents the player from owning anything for a long time, and slams him with inhumane grind that feels like a waste of time because of no lasting XP reward, with the only way out offered being real money. Basically, trying to inconvenience you into paying. Grind first unless paid, fun later.

I realize sub-based game and f2p are different animals, but I believe PGI (IGP?) tried to squeeze too hard and instead broke players' will to play.

Edited by Alex Wolfe, 06 November 2012 - 09:56 AM.

[zmeul]

Bubba Wilkins, on 06 November 2012 - 09:52 AM, said:

You should be charting users added per day from the creation of Founders until now. Then you would see the spikes you are looking for. Using the running total method you have with 300,000+ existing users as a baseline skews the results.

impossible
I applied for testing back in nov last year and I was accepted last month on the 10th

if anyone else has some more data, please post it


also one other thing: the game gained media interest since PGI removed the NDA, and this was back in CBT

Edited by zmeul, 06 November 2012 - 10:03 AM.

[Mechwarrior Buddah]

Alex Wolfe, on 06 November 2012 - 08:44 AM, said:

Nonsense. In my foolish youth, I played WoW, from solo play and casual fishing until max level to heroic raids.

Want to know how the starting experience looks?

Ding! Level up! Took only a couple boars!

Ding! Ding! (oh cool found a nice uncommon item!) DingDingDing!

*ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED* [no achievements back when I started, there are now]

*discovered XYZ! looks amazing!* (should I learn alchemy, or enchanting?)

Ding! Dingadingadingadingding! ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED!

In short... you're being showered with praise, prizes and hooks and all the time your character is growing. And that's on the trial account. Before you even pay them a single buck, the game is set up to make you want more. For a newbie, it's a journey alongside your character. The grind doesn't appear until way, way later.

Eventually you hit the level cap, but you can set up your character any way you want along the way, both talent-and-cosmetic-wise, and you DO get experience. You get to keep him, his name and his progress in case you want to come back and play at a later date. Anything else would be nonsense.

Want to know how MWO starting player experience compares?



"Pay or no fun allowed"

Yea that WoW explanation was BS at BEST,

[Lin Shai]

You're making one very large assumption: That there is a significant number of users that weren't already signed up that would be interested in a MechWarrior game.

Smith and Tinker couldn't get funding to make MechWarrior 5. That's how PGI got the license and why we have MWO.

Many major game publishers may suck, but one thing they do know is where they will get the best return for an investment. MechWarrior wasn't on the list.

I would be very surprised if this game ever broke out of "niche market". That's simply being realistic. And I'm fine with that - it doesn't ever have to be anything more for it to be a financial success for PGI.

[MrPenguin]

Comguard, on 06 November 2012 - 09:44 AM, said:

Thanks for the effort zmeul.

Considering that we are in a situation where even founders, the most die-hard mechwarrior fans out there, are often saying "I'll stop playing until they fix XYZ" you get an idea of how appealing this game is to newcomers.

PGI is a studio of 60 people. No idea how much money they need per month to pay the wages, the infrastructure and make a little profit.

They raised 5 million$ purely out of the funders program.
They're good for awhile, so you don't need to worry.

[BlackWidow]

zmeul, on 06 November 2012 - 09:46 AM, said:

you know the OPEN BETA trailer they put up 4 days ago?
it has currently 9546 views on YouTube and 55024 on GameTrailers - where are the numbers!? since then there were about 5K new accounts


I would happily be wrong, I'd love for PGI to come to this thread and show their data

hey PGI, I dare you .. I triple-double dare you to post your data since OBT started

Actually, of all the things people ding PGI for (which I generally don't) this is an area of frustration for me. They don't seem to have a really good marketing strategy for someone trying to hit youtube, facebook, twitter etc.

I'm *IN* the game and on the forums every day, for gosh sakes, and I don't even seem half the press releases/articles/videos until days after they are released. Is there such a thing as NINJA MARKETING? If this is meta-marketing....it's so meta...I don't get it.

[zmeul]

Lin Shai, on 06 November 2012 - 10:07 AM, said:

it doesn't ever have to be anything more for it to be a financial success for PGI.

but is it? this whole thing creates a vicious circle and I fear, if registration rate keeps true, that we won't see any regional servers - mark my words(!)
many outside the US won't pay for the game until there are regional servers, but there won't be regional server until PGI makes some money .. see the circle

wuselfuzz, on 06 November 2012 - 09:30 AM, said:

Final Fantasy XI just became 10 years old, and they had just below 500000 subscribers most of the time.

there is one major difference between FF11 and MWO, it's subscription based while MWO is F2P

MWO needs new users, MWO needs a lot of paying users and this won't come at under 1k users / day

Edited by zmeul, 06 November 2012 - 10:20 AM.

[BlackWidow]

Lin Shai, on 06 November 2012 - 10:07 AM, said:

You're making one very large assumption: That there is a significant number of users that weren't already signed up that would be interested in a MechWarrior game.

Smith and Tinker couldn't get funding to make MechWarrior 5. That's how PGI got the license and why we have MWO.

Many major game publishers may suck, but one thing they do know is where they will get the best return for an investment. MechWarrior wasn't on the list.

I would be very surprised if this game ever broke out of "niche market". That's simply being realistic. And I'm fine with that - it doesn't ever have to be anything more for it to be a financial success for PGI.

Here here!

I played World of Warcraft for over nine years, from closed beta to ...well, honestly when I got in MWO beta.
But, I still long for the early days of Asheron's Call. A great game with a MUCH smaller and yet TIGHTLY KNIT community. I have never found a better overall experience since then.

Personally, from the early MWO beta forums this summer I started to get that feeling again. Now, we get the LOL crowd in here just looking for their latest free fix and bring their negative attitudes and trash talk with them. And as long as PGI implements a chat filter/ignore feature eventually, they are welcome by me. Mute targets..nothing more.

But, as long as the BT/MW community can financially support this game's continued existence I will be eternally grateful for this "niche" (nay, I say STEADFAST, RELIABLE, FAITHFUL and ENDURING!) market.

[Lerzpftz]

zmeul, on 06 November 2012 - 10:12 AM, said:

many outside the US won't pay for the game until there are regional servers, but there won't be regional server until PGI makes some money .. see the circle

I paid. I live in europe A friend of mine from next door, joining one week before open beta, started the grind a second time. And paid for his premium and bays yesterday. So some people seem to like it, as flawed as it is now. Please be aware that 0.1% of the 100.000.000 people owning a computer capable to run this game and interested in gaming at all, still is 100.000 active players. Just give them some time. It's simply too soon to come to conclusions like "IT WILL ALL DIE!" ...

[zmeul]

Lerzpftz, on 06 November 2012 - 10:29 AM, said:

as flawed as it is now

I'd love to pay but currently there are 2 major obstacles:

• lack of content
  
• hit detection: I play with 145ms ping and it's painful to hit with ballistic type weapons, even with lasers I need to lead the target

I also have to consider on what I "invest" my money in, WarThunder Open BETA will launch soon, also there is PlanetSide 2 launch

I can play them all but spend small amounts on each, or stick with one and sink some cash in it; I'd love it to be MWO, but not in it's current state, even without regional servers

Edited by zmeul, 06 November 2012 - 10:47 AM.

[Rokuzachi]

zmeul, on 06 November 2012 - 10:47 AM, said:

I'd love to pay but currently there are 2 major obstacles:

• lack of content
  
• hit detection: I play with 145ms ping and it's painful to hit with ballistic type weapons, even with lasers I need to lead the target

I also have to consider on what I "invest" my money in, WarThunder Open BETA will launch soon, also there is PlanetSide 2 launch


I can play them all but spend small amounts on each, or stick with one and sink some cash in it; I'd love it to be MWO, but not in it's current state, even without regional servers

I have a 40-60 ping and some matches, damage just doesn't register on a lot of things. I love the AC/20, it's my fav weapon, but it more than any other has problems with visually connecting but dealing no damage, even to assault-class mechs.

Anyways, that's besides the point for me.

If we are going to compare MWO's numbers we should compare them to other match-based, non persistent world online games (WoT, LoL, etc) and not character-driven MMORPGs. (not directed at a specific person)

Edited by Rokuzachi, 06 November 2012 - 10:55 AM.

[BoomDog]

I think a much better statistic to know would be how many new players stopped playing after the first few hours.

They really dropped the ball when it comes to introducing new players to the game.

Zero training. Nothing. Just dropped into battle with a trial mech, only to encounter 5 atlases 2 catapults and a jenner. All of which are completely maxed out in dps and armor, or speed.

There should've been a trial mech only mode. Even if pre-mades were allowed to join with trial mechs, at least we newbs would have a chance to hurt one. And, we would survive long enough to see how they beat us. Rather than dying in 10 seconds from god knows what.

I completely do not care about the grind. I played WoT. Almost 4000 battles and still didn't make it to the top tanks. So, the grind in MWO is a walk in the park. A few days of playing trial mechs and I can own an Atlas. I can't think of a game where you can own the most powerful 'thing' in the game in just a few days.