Latest update to the data collection follows
Methodology is still the same as usual: I drop into PUG games with 1 friend on skype. - He helps me count up ECM on the enemy team during the match.
(Out of curiosity I also tried to count TAG systems on each team to get a gage of how often one can count on having a friendly TAG system around without having to take it yourself - TAGs are harder to count though since I have to notice the beam or get the target info and notice it)
Our side always has 1 ECM since I piloted a trollmando 2D or Craven 3L for the duration of the tests.
13 Games
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 1, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: No
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 2, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(1ECM each)
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:0, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: No
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:0, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:0, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 1, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(2ECM each)
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:0, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 3, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(3ECM each)
Us: ECM 3, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Next 5 games: Done 1 January 2013 All in a craven 3L
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(1ECM each)
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 1, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(1ECM each)
Us: ECM 4, TAG 1, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 3, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Next 11 games: Done 4 January 2013 all games in a craven 3L
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:?, TAG ?, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Inconclusive (Barely saw the other team)
Us: ECM 3, TAG 1, Them: ECM:3, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: No
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Inconclusive (2ECM each)
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes* (we actually had a friendly disconnect but managed to pull it out anyway)
Us: ECM 3, TAG 0, Them: ECM:0, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 1, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: No
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 1, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: No
6 January 2012: With DeaconW as wingman
Us: ECM 4, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 3, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 3, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
6 January 2012: With Alexei Karnov as wingman\
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: No
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Inconclusive
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 2?, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Inconclusive
The hypothesis is that the team with more ECM systems will tend to win.
Total Games: 39
Inconclusive Games: 9 - these are games where the number of ECM systems is equal on both teams.
Conclusive games: 30
The conclusive games break down as follows:
Matching expectations: 24
Contradicted expectations: 6
Using the formula given on page 10 of this document:
http://classes.soe.u...nter03/h5m3.pdf
I arrive at
Sigma=0.073 which is 2.19 matches,
To reach a neutral outcome (15/15, the results would need to be shifted by 4.11 sigmas),
Assuming the distribution is normal, this gives confidence of 99.99%
In short, the data still supports the statement that the team with more ECMs on it will tend to win.
The small amount of data makes going any further than this with the analysis a bad idea, but so far the data shows that the team with at least 1 more ECM than the other will tend to win 4x more often than the other. To be clear I do not trust this ratio as I haven't done any evaluation of the confidence interval on the standard deviation, and don`t believe I should until I have more data on hand.
Again, I have asked Garth for some data (~1000 random games) and he wrote back that he's at least going to look into it for me, though the odds of it happening seem pretty slim. Either way I appreciate that our community manager is trying to help me out.