262 replies to this topic

[abloobloo]

Thirdstar, on 23 January 2013 - 08:25 PM, said:

You clearly have no idea how to read charts either.22 of your 31 samples are AT or BELOW the 1 line. How then is the average W/L magically 1:1?

Protip: Don't start with a biased hypothesis.

Clustering sounds like a weasel word here. Why don't you just say the majority of the sample was below 1:1 W/L, you'd at least be accurate.

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

The average win/loss ratio is 0.92:1 with a standard deviation of 0.31.

[LordLeto]

Rifter, on 23 January 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

Sorry to break this to you but you are going to need 2000+ samples to get reliable stats.

1,200 is usually the break off point before diminishing returns get prohibitive.

In either case 31 obviously isn't definitive, but I'll give it to the guy for actually putting in the work. I wonder what he could do with the metrics PGI has available(if they are indeed keeping them, which I hope they are).

[Thirdstar]

You had already lost credibility with me when you started your entire post with a well disproven fallacy, namely the following.

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

You often see pugs on these forums cry foul of premades. They claim that premades ruin the game, and that pugs are constantly being wiped off the map, round after round.

Why then should we take ANYTHING after that seriously? I also don't understand why you don't come out and post this on your main Founders account?

http://mwomercs.com/...87610-pat-kell/

Why are you hiding behind an alt account who had all of no posts before your own poll?

[LordLeto]

Thirdstar, on 23 January 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

OP doesn't understand that correlation =/= causation either.

Also reading some of the replys I question peoples reading comprehension:

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

And before anyone says it, yes, I know correlation is not causation. I make no claims of the existence of causal links here.

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

And before anyone says it, yes, I know correlation is not causation. I make no claims of the existence of causal links here.

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

And before anyone says it, yes, I know correlation is not causation. I make no claims of the existence of causal links here.

Edited by LordLeto, 23 January 2013 - 08:40 PM.

[abloobloo]

Thirdstar, on 23 January 2013 - 08:37 PM, said:

You had already lost credibility with me when you started your entire post with a well disproven fallacy, namely the following.



Why then should we take ANYTHING after that seriously? I also don't understand why you don't come out and post this on your main Founders account?

http://mwomercs.com/...87610-pat-kell/

Why are you hiding behind an alt account who had all of no posts before your own poll?

Because that's not my account?

Also, in the data gathering thread, I explained that I used an alt so that my previous stated opinions on the matter wouldn't bias the sample.

Also, pugs do post a lot about premades stomping them. This is accepted.

Edited by abloobloo, 23 January 2013 - 08:41 PM.

[Thirdstar]

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 08:40 PM, said:

Because that's not my main account?

Also, in the data gathering thread, I explained that I used an alt so that my previous stated opinions on the matter wouldn't bias the sample.

Also, pugs do post a lot about premades stomping them. This is accepted.

So where's this part "They claim that premades ruin the game, and that pugs are constantly being wiped off the map, round after round"?

LordLeto, on 23 January 2013 - 08:38 PM, said:

Also reading some of the replys I question peoples reading comprehension:

Then tell me why does the OP say there's a relationship? And you agree with the OP that there IS a relationship, I'll ask, where's the evidence?

Read the rest of the thread before raging son.

Edited by Thirdstar, 23 January 2013 - 08:44 PM.

[WVAnonymous]

1) 30's a nice starting point for sample size if you have a normal distribution, unfortunately to make the statistics on a binomial distribution (like this one) work like a normal distribution, if I recall correctly, you would need a substantially larger sample size.

2) Sample bias. I didn't see the previous thread for submission. I only pug, have MC in my account, a 0.32 KDR a W/L history of 278/530 at the moment (no calculator handy to convert that to a 0.5:1 ish ratio). Also, I don't recall the specific rule here, but if adding a single data point gives you a new high or low value, there's a decent chance you have underestimated the standard deviation. I think that's in the bootstrapping literature.



3) PGI data availability: they published heat maps of every shot fired and every mech killed, and they plan to launch matchmaking based on total relative performance. They have the stats.

Edited to add distribution of scores and for readability.

Edited by WVAnonymous, 23 January 2013 - 08:47 PM.

[abloobloo]

Thirdstar, on 23 January 2013 - 08:41 PM, said:

So where's this part "They claim that premades ruin the game, and that pugs are constantly being wiped off the map, round after round"?

On these forums. Feel free to go find them, because we all know that posts like that exist in spades.

Edited by abloobloo, 23 January 2013 - 08:44 PM.

[Thirdstar]

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 08:43 PM, said:

On these forums. Feel free to go find them, because we all know that posts like that exist in spades.

So do posts that are reasonable and are well thought out. Why don't sample those? Or does that not suit your agenda?

[Scrawny Cowboy]

I see just as many one-sided wins in all PUG matches, if not more.

If a few players took the time to form a group and put in the effort to coordinate as a team, I say it reflects in their success.

[abloobloo]

Thirdstar, on 23 January 2013 - 08:46 PM, said:

So do posts that are reasonable and are well thought out. Why don't sample those? Or does that not suit your agenda?

Because I wasn't sampling posts, I was sampling stats that people volunteered in my thread.

If you want to argue with me about my reason for doing the study, I'm not interested. If you want to talk to me about the numbers, I'm all ears (eyes).

Edited by abloobloo, 23 January 2013 - 08:49 PM.

[Thirdstar]

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 08:47 PM, said:

Because I wasn't sampling posts, I was sampling stats that people volunteered in my thread.

Based on a false hypothesis that "They claim that premades ruin the game, and that pugs are constantly being wiped off the map, round after round".

You went in biased and came out with a biased answer. Who's really surprised here?

Your numbers are insufficient to come to any damn conclusion at all. In case you forget, I submitted my own stats to your poll. The thread was full of trolling, people being confused about 'ALL PUG'. You have 31 data points, 31. Any statistician worth his salt would have said "Whelp, I don't have enough samples, better go off and get more if I want to be taken seriously".

Edited by Thirdstar, 23 January 2013 - 08:55 PM.

[LordLeto]

Thirdstar, on 23 January 2013 - 08:43 PM, said:

Then tell me why does the OP say there's a relationship? And you agree with the OP that there IS a relationship, I'll ask, where's the evidence?

Read the rest of the thread before raging son.

Ask the OP? I merely showed you where you misconstrued the OPs words, knowingly or unknowingly I do not know. In either case I found that in poor form.

[Scrawny Cowboy]

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

So I started a thread on this forum asking anybody who has never dropped as a premade to post a screenshot of their stats.

Your linked thread's first post says it all.

Edited by B3RZ3RK3R, 23 January 2013 - 08:57 PM.

[Thirdstar]

LordLeto, on 23 January 2013 - 08:52 PM, said:

Ask the OP? I merely showed you where you misconstrued the OPs words, knowingly or unknowingly I do not know. In either case I found that in poor form.

OP says he understand that correlation =/= causation, then proceeds to say there IS a relationship. And you're telling ME that I don't have reading comprehension?

[Bhael Fire]

Murku, on 23 January 2013 - 08:01 PM, said:

Pugstomping is time sensitive, occurring at US peak playing hours.

Exactly. There's certain times of day that I absolutely loathe playing in PUGs because it seems every match is just a total team kill. Oddly enough, that's exactly when the premades are most active. For example, the last 4 or 5 matches I played tonight, I've been averaging about 1 kill for every 2 deaths. Which is the exact opposite of my normal average of 2:1 while playing in PUGs against other PUGs.

Not sure what the point of the OP was...was he really suggesting that a PUG has pretty much the same exact chance against a premade?

Premades should never be matched against PUGs. EVER.

Edited by Bhael Fire, 23 January 2013 - 09:04 PM.

[Murku]

We've seen KDRs posted at 10 or more. We've heard about the possible exploits to pad ratings. And yes, we've heard a lot of complaints about PUGstomping. Are all these things pure fiction, or are they all absolutely true? At the end of the day we could use a little more transparency in team makeups, together with a better matchmaking system. And apparently this is on it's way.

So why exactly is a particular point being made here? Are things fine as they are, and matchmaking a bad idea?

[Thirdstar]

Bhael Fire, on 23 January 2013 - 09:02 PM, said:

Exactly. There's certain times of day that I absolutely loathe playing in PUGs because it seems every match is just a total team kill. Oddly enough, that exactly when the premades are most active. For example, the last 4 or 5 matches I played tonight, I've been averaging about 1 kill for every 2 deaths. Which is the exact opposite of my normal average of 2:1 while playing in PUGs (against other PUGs).

Not sure what the point of the OP was...was he really suggesting that a PUG has pretty much the same exact chance against a premade?

Premades should never be matched against PUGs. EVER.

In the immortal words of Glenn Beck, OP is 'Just asking questions".

[Buzzkillin]

Should take account of time into the chart and what does people do with the MC. When I started, I only had a commando and had a 0.20 kdr. When I finally got the cbills to get a Dragon and outfitted the way I wanted, my kdr went up, I am at a 1.20 now and continues to go. I only bought some MC to paint my mechs.So lets assume a long term player will put down money for MC if they like the game enough and a short term player puts down money to buy mechs right away. and compare their kdr and their progress over time.

Edited by Buzzkillin, 23 January 2013 - 09:08 PM.

[abloobloo]

Thirdstar, on 23 January 2013 - 08:56 PM, said:

OP says he understand that correlation =/= causation, then proceeds to say there IS a relationship. And you're telling ME that I don't have reading comprehension?

I honestly don't care. I posted the MC/no MC kdr comparison for the hell of it. It wasn't a big part of this study. It was an afterthought. I just thought it would be interesting to note that people in my study with MC in their accounts had higher KDRs than people without MC.

If you want to criticize it, criticize it for the fact that there were only 7 people in the non-MC group. You have looked at the excel file right?

Edited by abloobloo, 23 January 2013 - 09:12 PM.