262 replies to this topic

[Snowhawk]

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 09:56 PM, said:

The very same unicorns and rainbows that snowhawk based his assumptions on. That was the point I was trying to make.

Ok... ok... I have to 100x write down on the tablet:
Premades have clearly no impact on a match and Santa Claus is a real person...

[Ilwrath]

Frostiken, on 24 January 2013 - 04:10 AM, said:

The random fleshbags that otherwise fill a server with no affiliation and no communication are pubbers.

Like I said, apparently it comes from MMORPGs, but MMORPGs are not games, and people who play them are not really people, so I hardly see why we are imitating them, like anything about them is anything to be proud of.

Yes that is what pubbing is. Pugs are mostly pubbers that are too weak to play as pubs so they try to team up with other weaklings so they don't fail so hard all the time. Premades = people in clan, guild or what you want to call it that teams up regularly.


MMORPG may be horrid, like guild wars 2, but you get some that is okay. Its fun to roam around in an persistent world. I think playing solo roaming squid herder in warhammer online is the most fun I ever had in a online game. Even more fun than Starsiege Tribes.

[AlexWildeagle]

My hypothesis is the OP has fallen and he can't get up. I'd say statistical studies is not his strong point.

As someone who has pugged many matches since mid-CB I would find it hard to believe anyone who could derive a statistical analysis without having access to the PGI databases as determining when your facing a premade group or a bunch of PUGs who just have a clue is very hard to determine.

Does it happen? Without a doubt. How often, I would be hesitant to put a number to it.

[Joseph Mallan]

Thirdstar, on 23 January 2013 - 07:57 PM, said:

Study is flawed because he has 31 data points. 31! Yeeesh

But sure lets have another flame war because OP think 31 is a reasonable sample.

You realize you only need 25 samples to formulate an SPC control chart? set up is sound and provable. Better than the 99% suck we hear about. the W/L is roughly .8-.9 just looking at the data which is in fact near 1:1. In fact from the data I'm looking at there wasn't a W/L under .5. I think he has established his point pretty well. Sure he could get a better result with more data, but he has his initial findings established properly according to my SPC classes. he could have done better to have included his X bar calculation proving where his Mean is.

[cabsen]

When the average Premade groups win more matches then they lose, then there must be a certain group of players, who lose more then they win. Guess which group of players this could be?

You don't even need a statistic to figure that out.

[Taizan]

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 08:40 PM, said:

Because that's not my account?

Also, in the data gathering thread, I explained that I used an alt so that my previous stated opinions on the matter wouldn't bias the sample.

Also, pugs do post a lot about premades stomping them. This is accepted.

The main "era" of pug stomping was right after open beta launch. Every 3rd match I got used to having some weird "81387th Black Skull Death League Mercenary Battallion Clan" enemy team proudly announce that my team is going to get smothered to bits.

MM Phase 2 has alleviated this issue a bit, mostly you get 1 premade team of 2-4 people on either side, sync drops are there as well, but imo quite irregular.

[Mack1]

Dear OP

Why not put your pencil and ruler down and have a few hours playing as a solo player and then not only will you see that Premades do ruin the game for soloists but you also get XP and Cbills while you work.

Yeah I know, am a genius.

[Joseph Mallan]

That depends on what the "Average" Premade group is winning. My Win/Loss in a Premade is around 60% (+3%). Does this sound like a PUG stomping monster?

Mack1, on 24 January 2013 - 04:50 AM, said:

Dear OP

Why not put your pencil and ruler down and have a few hours playing as a solo player and then not only will you see that Premades do ruin the game for soloists but you also get XP and Cbills while you work.

Yeah I know, am a genius.

There is your mistake. You are trying to play this game as a solo player. You drop with 7 other players, work with them!

[Sifright]

Joseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 04:52 AM, said:

That depends on what the "Average" Premade group is winning. My Win/Loss in a Premade is around 60% (+3%). Does this sound like a PUG stomping monster?


There is your mistake. You are trying to play this game as a solo player. You drop with 7 other players, work with them!

I'd suggest you are dropping with terrible players. obviously not all premades are very skilled but most of them are much better in terms of pilot skill than the average pug this on top of having vastly more coordination is where the stomping comes from.

even random players together in comstar making a four man I tend to hover around 80-90% win/loss whilst grouping.

My stats bare this out despite the 400+ solo drops i've done. by the by most of my loses have come from solo pugging.

1,440 / 618
Kills / Death

811 / 367
Wins / Losses

2.33
Kill / Death Ratio

[Mycrus]

OP,

Good job!

When PUGging extensively my kdr drops to 1 and my wlr is at 1.4 - which is the median i would expect for an average player like me.

[Thirdstar]

Joseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 04:52 AM, said:

There is your mistake. You are trying to play this game as a solo player. You drop with 7 other players, work with them!

There is no magic wand that a PUG can use to counteract the effect of 4-8 grouped people with comms. None. Plenty of premades admit this is the case and that they win upwards of 80% of their matches. Why is this so hard for you personally to accept

[Joseph Mallan]

Thirdstar, on 24 January 2013 - 05:08 AM, said:

There is no magic wand that a PUG can use to counteract the effect of 4-8 grouped people with comms. None. Plenty of premades admit this is the case and that they win upwards of 80% of their matches. Why is this so hard for you personally to accept

Cause I'm not one of those teams. My Win/Lose average is at 60% Dropping 4-6 hours a night, with basically the same 1-3 people every night. That's why I have such a hard time accepting the sob story.

[Tikkamasala]

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

The average win/loss ratio is 0.92:1 with a standard deviation of 0.31. This is very close to 1 and represents a strong rebuke to pugs who claim they are constantly being steamrolled due to the fact that they are pugging.

abloobloo, on 23 January 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

On the other hand, win loss ratios are comparatively high at 1.49:1 with a standard deviation of 1.11.

Apart from the very biased data sample the huge standard deviations should have been enough of a warning to see that your findings are in fact not a "strong rebuke" of solo queue steamrolls or a proof of your hypothesis.

[knight-of-ni]

I agree with the OP's title. I have yet to a join a team, yet I certainly don't get steam rolled every time. I don't need statistics to tell me that anyone who says otherwise is exaggerating (not to imply that the data isn't interesting). Sometimes the match is 8-0, sometimes it's 0-8, other times it's something in the middle.

However, the OP's data is insufficient to support the hypothesis.
As already mentioned, he needs a lot more data points, data points from those who don't necessarily participate in the forums, and data points during all times of day.

[Thirdstar]

Joseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 05:17 AM, said:

Cause I'm not one of those teams. My Win/Lose average is at 60% Dropping 4-6 hours a night, with basically the same 1-3 people every night. That's why I have such a hard time accepting the sob story.

Yes because your premade can't match that win ratio you think others can't. Execellent hypothesis. And Don't you dare call it a sob story from your premade perch.

[Joseph Mallan]

Thirdstar, on 24 January 2013 - 05:22 AM, said:

Yes because your premade can't match that win ratio you think others can't. Execellent hypothesis. And Don't you dare call it a sob story from your premade perch.

I'll call it want I want when I want good sir. I PUGged for 6 weeks under the same opinion I have now! There will be players and groups that are better than you/me. As my wife sometimes says, "Suck it up Cupcake." And yes there are others who can't match that number... there are also those who can better it. If you can't stand losing don't play on line games! I have a blast playing. Win or Lose I normally have fun. When I get spanked by a better team I don't cry about it, I just wait till I can drop again and launch. So don't give me your lil Boo Hoo story. If you don't like losing to players using TS then don't make the normal PUG mistakes.

[Scyther]

Biased analysis is biased.

(They call this 'researcher bias' in studies.)

OP obviously knows enough statistics to know that 31 data points justifies no conclusions at all.

Especially when those data points are self-selected, forum readers, who are also detail oriented and technically skilled enough to cap their stats in a screenshot and re-post the SS.

He also ignores his own observation of an above-average KDR of (IIRC) 1.49, which tells him right there that this is an above-average set of players.

Regardless he goes on to blithely state 'My thesis having been proven' etc.

It's guys like this that prompted Mark Twain to state: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics".

Please stop giving a valuable and useful tool a bad reputation by using it ignorantly.


Badger

(PS: Why do I get the feeling you are one of those guys who abandoned 8-mans and went back to trolling PUGs in your pre-made because the 8-mans were too hard for you?)

[Thirdstar]

Joseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 05:38 AM, said:

So don't give me your lil Boo Hoo story. If you don't like losing to players using TS then don't make the normal PUG mistakes.

Since you are clearly living in my head, do tell what mistakes these are. Besides you know NOT being on TS.

Joseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 05:38 AM, said:

If you can't stand losing don't play on line games!

Who made this argument? Seriously? Who?

My OB W/L is 439 / 665.

Why can't you get it through your thick skull that the only thing I would ever ask for is a fair playing field.

I used to at least have a modicum of respect for you Joseph but I see you've joined the rest of gang who hate because they can. Who have no defence at all when asked why they dislike fairness. Who think dropping a bunch of uncoordinated PUGs against a 4 man or 8 man is perfectly fair.

Edited by Thirdstar, 24 January 2013 - 05:49 AM.

[Joseph Mallan]

Thirdstar, on 24 January 2013 - 05:42 AM, said:

Since you are clearly living in my head, do tell what mistakes these are. Besides you know NOT being on TS.

Not coordinating fire. Spreading to all points on the map. For the most potent two. I still pug for an hour or two every night waiting for some of the members of the Law to be released for Liberty/ get home from work. I still see it 7 months into Beta. When I add my weapons to the destruction of an enemy I get Betched at and called a 'Kill Stealing Mother F*cker'. With that level of team work how do you ever expect to get better at the game?

A more compiled list of mistakes made are found here:
LINK

Edited by Joseph Mallan, 24 January 2013 - 05:50 AM.

[Thirdstar]

Joseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 05:47 AM, said:

Not coordinating fire. Spreading to all points on the map. For the most potent two. I still pug for an hour or two every night waiting for some of the members of the Law to be released for Liberty/ get home from work. I still see it 7 months into Beta. When I add my weapons to the destruction of an enemy I get Betched at and called a 'Kill Stealing Mother F*cker'. With that level of team work how do you ever expect to get better at the game?

A more compiled list of mistakes made are found here:
LINK

And you know I am personally making these mistakes how?