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YOUR CLOSED BETA ODDS


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#21 Faenwulf

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:06 AM

I don't think they pick people by their forums post count.

I rather think that they are trying to mix it up: New Players, people who played the franchise for a long time, differing system specs (need to test all those different graphics cards etc.!) and hopefully from different time zones (since this would mean 24/7 people palying the closed beta and providing bug reports etc.)

Besides of that, having 100% on your Profile is a good thing to have and having signed up earlier than the rest is propably rather good too (since I assume they started rating the applications by the first that reached them).

#22 Vulpesveritas

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:07 AM

View PostHannes, on 27 May 2012 - 11:04 AM, said:


The unavailibility of the founders packages has nothing to do with Servers and ping.
+ Euro has pretty decent ping over the ocean ( around 120-150 for me ) and I can play even fast FPS on US servers, so connection is no problem either.

umm...

View PostInnerSphereNews, on 22 May 2012 - 10:25 AM, said:

Hi everyone!

You've probably seen our big news today - Beta signups are official! But how, you ask?
First, log onto the forums; then click profile and it's right there! For greater clarity closed beta starts today! we will be inviting users as soon as tomorrow.
Secondly, how the Founders program beta/early access works: The program is purchasable on June 19th and you gain guaranteed access to the closed beta on July 17th.
Thirdly, the reason this announcement stated 'North America' is that it's for North American servers – As we have mentioned we are working very hard to launch MechWarrior Online in every region worldwide. We may also run a similar Operation for other regions, therefore we are required to recommend that for the best play experience you register and play in your region in the near future. However There is no IP blocking. You can signup from everywhere just keep in mind that if you are outside of North America we cannot guarantee your play experience.
Thanks for being the most awesome fanbase ever, and we hope this clears up your questions.
Sincerely,
The MechWarrior Online team.


And as the founders packages get you guaranteed access to the beta, I would assume they're going to be most actively interested in finding users who they feel will have the best chance of having a good ping, and therefore would be looking for North American users.

#23 Evedro Solais

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:08 AM

Yeah, I actually already did this in another thread. But you have to realize not everyone has filled their BETA forms out and some are under 18 :) and this is for the NA servers meaning they'll be less inclined to pick people out of the region. So I'll stick with 100,000 -1,500 =98,500 players left in the pool for ease of reference. This means there is a 0.00101% chance of any given individual being chosen and that makes 0.505% chance out of 500 and 1.01% chance out of 1000 but in reality I suspect the total number of eligible BETA testers is much less meaning the chances are much greater.

Edited by Evedro Solais, 27 May 2012 - 11:09 AM.


#24 GrizzlyViking

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:10 AM

View PostVulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 11:04 AM, said:

By the gods I wish. But the Devs did say that they chose "fresh meat" for the first 1000, which could be read as "people with no knowledge of btech / are not active on the forums"


You bring up an interesting point. I wonder if players can complete a BETA Profile without signing up for the forums now? I don't think they can, but there is always a possibility.

#25 Vulpesveritas

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:11 AM

View PostGrizzlyViking, on 27 May 2012 - 11:10 AM, said:


You bring up an interesting point. I wonder if players can complete a BETA Profile without signing up for the forums now? I don't think they can, but there is always a possibility.

well, I do know after the beta announcement a number of lurkers with no posts / less than 10 posts started posting.... So eh. But no, you need a forum profile... but that doesn't mean we didn't have a few thousand lurkers who never posted but kept up with the news and such.

Edited by Vulpesveritas, 27 May 2012 - 11:12 AM.


#26 WardNine

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:14 AM

View PostSesambrot, on 27 May 2012 - 10:51 AM, said:

well, there are rougly 119,000 users on the forum, minus 1500 that already got an invite makes 117,500...
1000/11750 =0.00851

that means 0.851% of the community are going to get one of the next 1000 invites........


Uhm yeah, I think I'm just going to expect to get my hands on the game around the end of july, thank you!


You assume all those 119,000 completed the new beta regristration to 100%. I would be extreamly surprised if 25% of those users updated the new beta form.

#27 Justin Loup

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:15 AM

If I am chosen to wage battle against the despicable foes of the Capellan Confederation, then I will do my duty with honor.

If not, then I will stand in reserve, ready to take up arms for the glory of the Confederation at any moment.

#28 Sesambrot

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:16 AM

View PostVulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 11:07 AM, said:

umm...


And as the founders packages get you guaranteed access to the beta, I would assume they're going to be most actively interested in finding users who they feel will have the best chance of having a good ping, and therefore would be looking for North American users.

Posted Image

On a serious note:
the biggest problem with euro-players is probably not the ping, depending on the netcode 150 ms can still be alright for playing.
However, there's a much bigger concern; timezones!

That said, I'd assume unless they can get like 1000 euro-players at once, chances may indeed be a little slim.
then again, there are plenty of people who haven't put their real location in the profile, so unless they're checking your IP...


EDIT:
yes Vulpesveritas, you're the cake! :)

Edited by Sesambrot, 27 May 2012 - 11:17 AM.


#29 GrizzlyViking

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:16 AM

View PostVulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 11:11 AM, said:

well, I do know after the beta announcement a number of lurkers with no posts / less than 10 posts started posting.... So eh. But no, you need a forum profile... but that doesn't mean we didn't have a few thousand lurkers who never posted but kept up with the news and such.


I don't think that's a big deal. Some people are simply not forum savvy or they are just not into posting on forums. I have known a lot of people like that over the years that made good team members, but getting them to the forums was like pulling teeth.

#30 Vulpesveritas

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:19 AM

View PostGrizzlyViking, on 27 May 2012 - 11:16 AM, said:


I don't think that's a big deal. Some people are simply not forum savvy or they are just not into posting on forums. I have known a lot of people like that over the years that made good team members, but getting them to the forums was like pulling teeth.

It's not a problem, I'm more just pointing out that there is a large number of people we don't see on the forums that the dev's might have chosen... and that if post count has anything to do with it guys like me with high post counts actually might be less likely to be chosen due to the fact that we are more visible on the forums and such.

#31 GrizzlyViking

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:20 AM

View PostWardNine, on 27 May 2012 - 11:14 AM, said:


You assume all those 119,000 completed the new beta regristration to 100%. I would be extreamly surprised if 25% of those users updated the new beta form.


I did round it a little to make it to 1:100, but not that much. Remember this is just speculation. If your assumption is right then it gets us to 1:25, which is still not that great.

Edited by GrizzlyViking, 27 May 2012 - 11:21 AM.


#32 Beans

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:20 AM

posting count shouldnt be all it cracked up to be. Beta is also letting people who you know dont know what the game is about to offer refreshing new ideas. granted sometime there is no such thing as a stupid question. Until someone asks it. :) Looking forward to seeing how i can provide my thoughts on the game. Looks fantastic and will see you soon.

#33 checker

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:22 AM

Money talks and forum chat is well just that forum chat. So when they open the doors and start accepting checks, cash, money-orders and PayPal send your money in and you are guaranteed in - er in July but the when don't matter, you no matter where or who you are are in. Don't forget to pick up your "Founders Patch" when you walk in the door of the mech hanger. Happy mechin everyone.

I can be this cheery, jovial, nonchalant and a bit sarcastic because I've been waiting on a great Mech game to come along for a long long time and waiting another month or even six months is a small wait compared to the drought we've been experiencing. Think I'll go drive a tank now but I'm not spending any more money over there, no siree bob I'm saving up my pennies for MWO. May I have a Centurion please?

#34 Vulpesveritas

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:22 AM

View PostGrizzlyViking, on 27 May 2012 - 11:20 AM, said:


I did round it a little to make it to 1:100, but not that much. Remember this is just speculation. If your assumption is right then it it gets us to 1:25, which is still not that great.

But then if the devs rule out IPs outside of North America, then we get down to about 1:12, and cutting out those under 18, we may get down to 1:10 or even 1:7 odds.


View PostBeans, on 27 May 2012 - 11:20 AM, said:

posting count shouldnt be all it cracked up to be. Beta is also letting people who you know dont know what the game is about to offer refreshing new ideas. granted sometime there is no such thing as a stupid question. Until someone asks it. :) Looking forward to seeing how i can provide my thoughts on the game. Looks fantastic and will see you soon.


Post count in my situation, what it tells the Devs:
Positives;
- Knowledgeable about hardware.
- Enthusiastic about game.
- Understands general game mechanics.
- Tries to help others, and wants to help the game.
- Has an obsession with ethics.
- Is able to play a CryENGINE 3 title on his PC (Crysis 2... barely)
- Is a light / L-medium pilot.
- Is willing to input suggestions.
- Is vocal and will speak up about issues.
- Understands glitches and is able to find them.

Edited by Vulpesveritas, 27 May 2012 - 11:27 AM.


#35 Aelos03

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:25 AM

i don't like my chances it looks its bigger chance that car is going to hit me then get into beta

#36 xwolf12x

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:27 AM

Seems like a good chance to me :)

#37 Faenwulf

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:28 AM

Na, those odds are propably way too good.

And as I said: Invitign people from other time zones ( a couple hundres from about half a dozen or so) can have its upsides, too: 24/7 testing.
Otherweise you'll have about 10-12 hours a day where nearly no one is testing.
Would be a big waste I think. (And if all people from the same time zone have a "bad" ping of about 150, it doesn't really matter)

#38 FinnMcKool

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:33 AM

If they keep increasing Beta users , it just tells us that things are working well and sooner or later we will all get to play.
Truth is this is just good all around for everybody.

#39 GrizzlyViking

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:33 AM

View PostVulpesveritas, on 27 May 2012 - 11:22 AM, said:

Post count in my situation, what it tells the Devs:
Positives;
- Knowledgeable about hardware.
- Enthusiastic about game.
- Understands general game mechanics.
- Tries to help others, and wants to help the game.
- Has an obsession with ethics.
- Is able to play a CryENGINE 3 title on his PC (Crysis 2... barely)
- Is a light / L-medium pilot.
- Is willing to input suggestions.
- Is vocal and will speak up about issues.
- Understands glitches and is able to find them.


I can't seem to find it but, one of the Devs, I think Paul, posted somewhere that post counts have nothing to do with BETA invites. (I will post a link when I find it.)

#40 Evedro Solais

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Posted 27 May 2012 - 11:34 AM

Heh, I bet nubnub got an invite :)





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