Posted 25 April 2014 - 08:40 AM
I really like the thoughts that the OP put out there. It's a good statement of many of the negative impressions of the game.
However, I don't think the problem is really about the synch-dropping pre-mading meta-builders as much as it is about the salient point that, under the current matchmaker, we have no way to opt out of the meta game. Said another way, we have no expectation of a reasonable match, playing the way that we believe is fun.
But the problem with the game is deeper than that. If we all just played the way we wanted to play and the matchmaker were perfect, then we'd be matched up with others that have a similar skill level and play style. However, the matchmaker is fatally flawed, for several reasons:
First, the matchmaker uses Elo as the matching metric. Elo is a numerical indicator, calculated from a win-loss history, which predicts the probability of the outcome when two players of a single player game are matched up. Since MWO is a team game, Elo is a questionable metric (a more appropriate, but impractical, metric would be to assign an Elo to each permutation of players that are grouped together). But, if we assume that the result of each match is due to some combination of team and individual play, then the resulting outcome can be (weakly) predicted based on the net contribution of individual skill levels on a team. As a result, the Elo metric in use will--eventually--converge to the correct value predictive of a player's individual skill. However, this convergence will be slow and noisy due to the weak dependence of match result on individual skill. That said, the matchmaker's performance will always be limited by the fact that it cannot account for team play, due to its sole use of an individual statistic.
Second, the matchmaker uses average Elo when making its determination that teams are balanced, but there is no a priori indication that average Elo is a valid predictor of match success at all. Specifically, the balancing metric should be able to predict the probability of the match outcome before the match even starts. If average Elo is a good metric, then two teams with exactly the same average Elo have exactly equal probabilities of winning the match (i.e. 50/50). This prediction can be validated relative to the outcomes of live matches. However, there has been no demonstration by the development team (who are the only ones who have access to the validation) that the balancing metric has any quality whatsoever.
Third, the determination of balance does not appear to have any consideration of the Elo variance across the two teams. Formerly, the match maker directly restricted the range of Elos (i.e. individual player skill levels) that would be present in any match making attempt. Recently, this restriction was relaxed due to wait times for the top tier players. (Naturally, the best players in the game represent the smallest population of players; 24 of them to showing up at precisely the same time during off hours is a low probability occurrence.) As a result, it is perfectly feasible to match great players with inexperienced ones.
Finally, the combination of using a metric that doesn't include team play, using average as a matching metric Elo, and not limiting the variance of individual skill levels is most likely to negatively affect the user experience of two groups of players: the worst (newest) players and the best players. Given that most teams will be made up of predominantly average players, if a new player tries to join the game, he will be much more likely to find a match when grouped with a top player. As a result, the new players are tossed in to the game playing with one or two top players on their team, facing a group of primarily average players. The result is a destruction in the quality of the match. New players do not fare well against average players, and top players have no chance when massively outnumbered.
All of these conclusions come from knowledge of the design of the matchmaker and a an understanding of population statistics. Design changes such as switching from 8v8 to 12v12 and increasing the allowable Elo spread both had the result of increasing match variance and thus decreasing the quality of the match making. Furthermore, segmenting the community into smaller populations will further increase the match variance. Mark my words: although it won't be as scary as the 12-man Queue (which is drawing from a tiny population), the Group Queue will be a mess.
TL;DR - The matchmaker is poorly designed. There's no point in playing in anything but pre-arranged matches until it's fixed.