Roland, on 09 May 2014 - 05:26 AM, said:
This supports what people were saying, that PGI was misinterpretting their data, and when Paul said only 18% of drops were premades, he literally meant drops, and not actual players... such that each group dropping was only counting as 1 "drop" in his numbers.
Because frankly, if only 18% of players actually grouped, then they wouldn't have any trouble limiting the number of groups per team to 1... the fact that they can't make full teams effectively with that limitation in place suggests a significant percentage of their playerbase is actually playing in groups... which would make more sense given the previously released statistics regarding grouping (where it used to be the majority of all players dropped in groups).
This post presents a way to
use a dynamically generated BV to handicap teams, creating a sliding scale of benefits for smaller groups.
No, the metrics for percentage of players dropping in groups is probably exactly right. That sort of telemetry isn't hard to pull out of content and I find it highly unlikely that all the people at PGI who are involved in matchmaking and telemetry made the same mistake - I sincerely doubt that Paul went and created, then ran the report himself.
Here's the issue.
Suppose you have 1,000 players who all want to drop. You'll create 41 matches and have 16 people waiting for more to fill a team.
So you've got 984 people to put into 41 matches. You'd need 82 teams in that mix; average team size is a bit over 2 people so we need to round it to 3. So that's 246 people. That's 25% of the population.
So if you've only got 18%, here's what that looks like. First 29 matches fills.... and....
You wait.
However long it took to fill that 1,000 people, of which 984 will fit a match you literally need to wait almost that whole timeframe again to populate enough teams to drop a premade on each team.
The math just doesn't work. Out of 1,000 people you'd have 180 people on premade teams. You've got to have 1 premade on each team, so 1 set of 2 on each team. So that's.....
max possible 42 matches you can put a premade to each side on out of 1,000 people. Since statistically 1/2 of all premade teams are 3 or 4 people you're closer to filling 29 matches out of every 41 you need to fill.
So you wait for more premades.
Even worse is that you can't expect premade teams to populate evenly across all 3 Elo buckets, so you might end up with need 10 Tier 1 matches, 20 Tier 2 matches and 11 Tier 3 matches but only have 4 Tier 1 premade team sets, 12 Tier 2 sets and 13 Tier 3 sets.
I was always dubious that part would work. 3/3/3/3 works because it's just filling buckets. Like putting coins in a coin-counter, you just feed the right size in the right slot and there is a constant feed of coins (players) coming in. At 18% of the population though premade teams would skew the crap out of that process. You'd have to drop them FIRST to build teams around since you've got to have 1 premade per team you can't build a team and then not be able to fit a premade because of 3/3/3/3.
So you'll stack up pugs waiting for a premade in the right tier to populate.
Does that make sense? I hate to puke up a bunch of math without taking the time to put it into formula but the concept is simple -
18% is 180 out of 1,000.
1,000 people is 41(well, 41.6) matches.
180 people on premade teams is about 60 premades.
2 premades per match (1 per team) means about 30 matches worth of premades.
That leaves 11 matches without premades. So out of every 1,000 people ready for a match you've got 280 who will be waiting.
That's without accounting for premade availability across the 3 Elo tiers.
If premades were 33% of the population that would mean there was at least 2 4man premades permatch in every single match across every tier of Elo, That at least 8 people in each game are in premades. That's just not happening.
No, 18% is about right. It just tends to skew more heavily towards higher Elo; so in higher Elo you've got probably closer to 20, maybe even 25% while in lower tiers it's likely closer to 12%.
The issue is that it's not enough to fill matches with 2 per side, especially not accounting for Elo tiers.