Jump to content

Proof That Elo Is Broken


99 replies to this topic

#1 Taynak

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Bad Company
  • Bad Company
  • 180 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 05:45 AM

This is self explanatory... with broken hit boxes and OP overused weapons.. ELO is a joke... I'm always going up against the other team with min max builds who have no life whatsoever...

You devs want to fix something... fix this... ELO was supposed to make it 50-50... this is not 50-50...


Game ID Kills Kill Assists Damage Team Damage Score' Qualified Time
339180028418351900 0 5 573 1 138 yes 2015-01-28 04:23:03
318069486769431976 0 4 300 1 100 no 2015-01-28 04:33:28
318351039055554691 1 4 307 0 110 no 2015-01-28 04:44:48
318351159314639881 1 7 282 52 165 yes 2015-01-28 04:57:40
317225310947405277 0 2 465 60 67 no 2015-01-28 05:07:52
318351283868692522 0 4 274 0 98 no 2015-01-28 05:20:42
317788960980502992 0 10 552 36 234 yes 2015-01-28 07:04:54
318070448842115758 0 3 344 1 83 no 2015-01-28 07:13:45
318352044077912342 2 3 338 1 102 no 2015-01-28 07:36:42
339181231009207214 1 1 447 1 60 no 2015-01-28 07:47:08
318352125682292316 0 1 50 1 23 no 2015-01-28 07:59:46
318352177221900608 0 3 269 0 78 no 2015-01-28 08:12:46
318070728014994191 1 3 149 1 80 no 2015-01-28 08:24:27
339181394217967147 0 3 257 1 77 no 2015-01-28 08:31:25

Edited by Taynak, 28 January 2015 - 05:49 AM.


#2 Thorn Hallis

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,902 posts
  • LocationUnited States of Paranoia

Posted 28 January 2015 - 05:50 AM

So what is your overall W/L ration then?

#3 kapusta11

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Little Helper
  • Little Helper
  • 3,854 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 05:52 AM

You could've at least make a screenshot.

#4 Appogee

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Ace Of Spades
  • Ace Of Spades
  • 10,967 posts
  • LocationOn planet Tukayyid, celebrating victory

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:00 AM

View PostTaynak, on 28 January 2015 - 05:45 AM, said:

ELO was supposed to make it 50-50... this is not 50-50...

I hate the way Elo is implemented in this game... but your sample is way too small to comment on one way or another. Come back when you've played 100 matches in the same weight class (because Elo is class specific) and let us know how your w/l looks then.


View PostTaynak, on 28 January 2015 - 05:45 AM, said:

I'm always going up against the other team with min max builds who have no life whatsoever...

So are you complaining about Elo, or are you complaining about other players' ability to build optimised Mechs?

#5 Apocryph0n

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Clan Exemplar
  • Clan Exemplar
  • 325 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:04 AM

Also: To qualify all you have to do is hit 7 different enemies for 1 damage. (If this is a rant towards the tournament)

Generally speaking: Sample size too small, over the course of like 2-3k drops we are talking about a proper sample. and then it should be darn close to 1.0. (like 0.95-1.05 for most people)


Edit: Since you ranted about other people driving optimized mech builds as well:

Maybe you should think about why they use them and why your build is simply inferior to these.

There is no valid reason to discuss this, it's fairly obvious that you are contributing less towards victory in a not-at-all optimized mech. This is pretty much working as intended ^^

Edited by Apocryph0n, 28 January 2015 - 06:06 AM.


#6 ownka

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Liquid Metal
  • Liquid Metal
  • 336 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:07 AM

People bitching about ELO fall into 2 categories, those who don't remember pre-elo, and those who just want a reason for their loss that doesn't involve them in any way. I, for one, can tell you my w/l ratio overall is damn near one, and I no longer have to deal with constant groups of D/C's and trial mechs like I did before ELO. It's awesome! Yeah, you had a rough streak, but now odds are you'll bounce back with a good streak to match.

#7 Alistair Winter

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Storm
  • Storm
  • 10,823 posts
  • LocationBergen, Norway, FRR

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:21 AM

View Postkapusta11, on 28 January 2015 - 05:52 AM, said:

You could've at least make a screenshot.

This. For the love of God, post a screenshot. I'm not staring at that mess of numbers to figure out what it all means.

#8 Koniks

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Moderate Giver
  • Moderate Giver
  • 1,301 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:30 AM

Also, Elo is fine. Your complaint is with how the matchmaker uses it.

And you're welcome to design a system that does a better job balancing time to drop against drop quality with this game's population split into 2 queues and 3 game modes. The current system isn't great but it's not like there are significantly better options if they insist on 1) random matchmaking and 2) a hidden ladder system with 3) players who prefer quick drop times to better matches.

Edited by Mizeur, 28 January 2015 - 06:30 AM.


#9 Artgathan

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Knight Errant
  • Knight Errant
  • 1,764 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:31 AM

View PostAlistair Winter, on 28 January 2015 - 06:21 AM, said:

This. For the love of God, post a screenshot. I'm not staring at that mess of numbers to figure out what it all means.


It means "I took the results from 14 of my games, which doesn't include whether I won or lost, and used as evidence that the system driven by W/L ratio is faulty".

#10 Mawai

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Legendary Founder
  • Legendary Founder
  • 3,495 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:32 AM

This appears to be a record from the current mercenary challenge where you need 130 points in a match to earn 20MC.

You do NOT need a win to qualify.

The formula is Kills * 10 + assists * 20 + (damage-team damage)/15

6 assists and 150 damage will net 130 points.

AND ... this has NOTHING to do with Elo.

Elo is supposed to be related to creating matches between players with roughly equivalent skills. However, it is actually based on creating matches between players with roughly equal chances to win. There are multiple ways to contribute to winning a match. Damage/kills/assists is one way. Organizing your pug group can be another. Team work is OP so a player that does nothing but can get the team moving together and organized may also end up with a higher Elo.

Anyway, as far as this post goes ... unless you add the data for whether you won or lost each match (it isn't there) ... then there is no relevance of this data to Elo.

#11 Ronan

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 651 posts
  • LocationEast Coast, USA

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:34 AM

Tournament results have absolutely NOTHING to do with ELO, and ELO has absolutely NOTHING to do with tournament results. If you have a win-loss ration of about 1.0, then that is a single indicator that ELO might be working. My W/L is about 70 losses away from a perfect 1.0. That doesn't necessarily mean ELO is working, only that one of the ELO goals is close.

EDIT: I was so completely ninja'd...

Edited by Ronan, 28 January 2015 - 06:35 AM.


#12 Amsro

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Overlord
  • Overlord
  • 3,441 posts
  • LocationCharging my Gauss Rifle

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:37 AM

Posted Image

Can't seem to figure out the data posted.

#13 TheDeckardCain

    Member

  • PipPipPip
  • 71 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:38 AM

This sample size is much too small to make any significant observations from.

#14 Shadow Magnet

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Shredder
  • Shredder
  • 429 posts
  • LocationLake Constance, Germany

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:40 AM

What I see here is a pretty long streak of 0 (or just 1) kills + low damage matches in a row.

Looks more like a hit reg issue than an Elo issue to me - because I experience similar or worse runs of many losses in a row with very low damage.

When the event started yesterday suddenly hit reg began to work *perfectly* for me. My damage went up like factor 2-3 and enemy fire on me did core me muuuuuuch slower than before.
Before: almost all matches I got were 0 or 1 kill, < 300 damage. After: usually 2-4 kills, 500-800 damage easily.
I slowly start to believe that this is actually not a hit reg issue but possibly PGI does some internal magic handicap vodoo to balance matches and W/L? :ph34r:

#15 Zoid

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Ace Of Spades
  • 518 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:41 AM

It's not broken so much as not working as advertised. In order for ELO to give you a true measure of your own skill in a 12-player game, you need to play a HUGE number of games. That's really all that's going on here, which is frustrating. I'm a physicist, not a statistician, so I can't say what that actually amounts to in terms of probability. Though I would be interested to know if anyone's done the calculation of expected value of number of games to reach equilibrium when you have 11 other players to worry about.

I've played a total of about 2000 games with a 1.4 W/L ratio, which is really about as good as you can expect from ELO in a 12-player game.

It's been said before and it will be said again: pros do not decide games, noobs do. Once 3-4 mechs are down on one side, the game is almost always over. There are a few times it can be pulled out, but not often. Even if those players were terribad, they are still extra targets and now that they're gone, everyone else will die quickly.

Edited by Zoid, 28 January 2015 - 06:42 AM.


#16 Alistair Winter

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Storm
  • Storm
  • 10,823 posts
  • LocationBergen, Norway, FRR

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:41 AM

View PostArtgathan, on 28 January 2015 - 06:31 AM, said:


It means "I took the results from 14 of my games, which doesn't include whether I won or lost, and used as evidence that the system driven by W/L ratio is faulty".

Oh, my bad. I didn't even notice that it was from the challenge. I thought he had posted some of his personal stats.

Ok then.
Spoiler



#17 LordKnightFandragon

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,239 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:42 AM

View PostAppogee, on 28 January 2015 - 06:00 AM, said:

I hate the way Elo is implemented in this game... but your sample is way too small to comment on one way or another. Come back when you've played 100 matches in the same weight class (because Elo is class specific) and let us know how your w/l looks then.



So are you complaining about Elo, or are you complaining about other players' ability to build optimised Mechs?



Well, ive played about 104 matches in assaults, my WL is 48/52 in assaults, its 50/56 overall. ......

and any time I get within about 4 games of 50/50, its wipe, wipe, wipe, wipe, wipe........ive been as close as 2 games from 50/50, then its a series of 2/12 wipes to ensure I dont get over the top...and elo isnt rigged...

Edited by LordKnightFandragon, 28 January 2015 - 06:43 AM.


#18 tucsonspeed6

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Philanthropist
  • 408 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:44 AM

The problem with elo is that it is a system meant to balance a player's win/loss ratio that is based on the player's win/loss ratio. It doesn't take into consideration your individual skill or your experiences in any single match. If you have an awful match where you die after 30 seconds because you're still basicing out a new mech, there's still a chance that the other 11 guys can get the win. So in the end, you've had a bad experience, you walk away with very little money and experience, but MM still says "make the next match harder."

#19 Joseph Mallan

    ForumWarrior

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • FP Veteran - Beta 1
  • FP Veteran - Beta 1
  • 35,216 posts
  • Google+: Link
  • Facebook: Link
  • LocationMallanhold, Furillo

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:47 AM

View PostAlistair Winter, on 28 January 2015 - 06:41 AM, said:

Oh, my bad. I didn't even notice that it was from the challenge. I thought he had posted some of his personal stats.

Ok then.
Spoiler




But the Fox is not abandoning its digging for food! :huh: or Fighting for survival. ^_^

#20 Navid A1

    Member

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • CS 2022 Gold Champ
  • CS 2022 Gold Champ
  • 4,954 posts

Posted 28 January 2015 - 06:47 AM

Explain this then:

ALL DONE WITH...... MIST LYNX.... MLX OP.
these results can not be a good basis for evaluating ELO functionality. So... OP please forget your losses and enjoy the matches.

Posted Image

Edited by Navid A1, 28 January 2015 - 06:54 AM.






3 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 3 guests, 0 anonymous users