MeiSooHaityu, on 06 October 2015 - 07:03 AM, said:
Big question is, is $35K average a day sustainable? in another 10 ~ 20 days is there going to be the same amount of interest and investing as there is today or will be tomorrow?
I'm not trying to be negative, I just don't want to get my hopes up either. I could see a small boost on the last day for sure though.
Either way, I'm crossing my fingers.
Probably. This is about the point where kickstarters level off into a daily average. The initial Buzz is over. People start to trickle in and the daily pledges are pretty even. Sunday was 37k or so, yesterday 46kish. So the next two days will be key, but looking at things? It's seeming likely we'll get a 35-40k a day average for the doldrums cycle, with a likely 2-3 day surge at the end (ESPECIALLY as PVP approaches, or is exceeded) which will probably hit the 100-200k range in the last couple days.
My optimistic guess is we'll hit 2.8 million-ish.
But at this point I feel confident, and my pragmatic guess is multiplayer PVP will be reached, but unlikely to get stretch goals therein. That's a pessimistic and pragmatic estimate mind you, which I'd encourage keeping to, because then there's less disappointment if it doesn't hit the optimistic.
this could easily change if we have another drop off though in the next two days. But if we make at least 30k each of the next two? I'd guess we'll stick around a 35k a day average for the stretch.
I'll also note there's a lot of people I've seen around who won't pledge until PVP is reached, or at least is close enough they think they can make a difference, so the final couple days could have a slightly bigger surge than typical with that, since it'll be happening closer to the end. But I'd further note to temper expectations of that simply because if we end up at closer to the 30-35k range, the PVP tier won't be hit until the last day or two, and that might not leave time for those people to realize it happened! Ideally, we hit PVP or close to such by the 30th of October (Last working day of the month, and likely to be payday for a lot of people - whether they get paid the last day of month, first of month, or Fridays), as that could see the start of the final push, again, due to payday. And leave time for those who are holding off for PVP to notice it is before the 3rd, when it ends.
EDIT: As more evidence to show sustainability, here's the two other HBS Video game Kickstarters. As you can see, Returns sustained an almost 45k a day average. It made 2.4 million, but was a lot lessfrontloaded than Battletech. Shadowrun does have a lot of the same fanbase too.
Edited by Dulahan, 06 October 2015 - 07:15 AM.