224 replies to this topic

[banana peel]

First thing first. It would be easier for PGI to just display the chances of drops inside the supply cache itself. Ah, well... But we can do some work ourselves, we're kinda used to it)
I think, it will help players to decide whether or not they want to spend their MCs.

What i suggest is we post for each our cache its possible contents and the actual result of the roll. Maybe up to 5 caches in one post to keep the topic as short as possible. Make screenshots if you can and use spoilers.
Once you are agreed to participate, it is vital to post results of EVERY cache you open. Selectivity, such as "gosh, finally i've won a mech! i'll go and share it with the community, but not my other 20 c-bill prizes", will ruin the whole thing)
Oh and another thing... If anyone wants to intentionally spoil results in favor or against the caches, i guess, not much we can do about it. I rely on your honesty, mechwarrior!)

I am yet to figure out how to handle such statistics and give an objective and easy to percieve result. The main thing is to collect a representative number of opened caches, rest is technical. But trust me on this, i'm a mathematician)

p.s. if you just sell caches, you can at least post it's possible contents. this data will help to estimate the value of supply cache keys.

[Bilbo]

I cannot help in this endeavor, as all of mine will be sold for 50k c-bills. So unless they force me to look at the contents I'll not have a chance to take a screenshot.

[Darian DelFord]

Nope.... I have 6 now and I have no intention of opening any.... to me the rewards are not worth the waste of MC.

[banana peel]

Darian DelFord, on 21 July 2016 - 09:10 AM, said:

Nope.... I have 6 now and I have no intention of opening any.... to me the rewards are not worth the waste of MC.

If chances were even, the caches that contain mechbays would be worth spending MCs based on that alone. But the chances obviously are not even. So the intention is to roughly estimate them.

[Tyler Valentine]

It's PGI so I expect we'll find that the chances of winning the flamer are 99.2% while the chances of winning a mechbay are .00000004%. I gave up opening them after a slew of mediocre weapons...

[Bilbo]

banana peel, on 21 July 2016 - 09:32 AM, said:

If chances were even, the caches that contain mechbays would be worth spending MCs based on that alone. But the chances obviously are not even. So the intention is to roughly estimate them.

If they have set the system up correctly, then you are just better off spending your money on the mechbays rather than the keys in the hopes of getting one. You will spend less money and end up with far more mechbays in the end. If you are using gifted mc for the keys, then the item weighting doesn't matter anyway because you stand to lose nothing to begin with.

[Moldur]

Wait guys. Let me save you some time and give you the answer.


No.

[Deathlike]

Tyler Valentine, on 21 July 2016 - 09:44 AM, said:

It's PGI so I expect we'll find that the chances of winning the flamer are 99.2% while the chances of winning a mechbay are .00000004%. I gave up opening them after a slew of mediocre weapons...

The worst case scenario is if it's actually rigged that way (as in, 100% chance to get the garbage weapon).

[TheLuc]

The game is not worthy of the Mechwarrior name, its not worth it to put a single cent

only good to get the mecha shooting fix and thats it.

[banana peel]

Moldur, on 21 July 2016 - 09:47 AM, said:

Wait guys. Let me save you some time and give you the answer.


No.

Wait, let me decrypt my message for you: "The chances for good stuff are probably bad, very bad. But let's collect the statistics and make a statement based on the facts. We can save a lot of MCs for a lot of guys. Or we can proove caches to be worth spending MCs. Or at least worth a gamble in some cases. Either is good".

[ScrapIron Prime]

I have enough mech bays, so I won't be spending the free MC I get from events on them. So yeah, I'll open a cache here and there with the free MC I was given, but only if it contains premium time, a mech, or something worth many MC. Everything else I'll sell, as I have no need to convert MC to cBills, which is the result of most drops.

I've opened one already, as it had both a Highlander IIC and a 5000 MC prize in it. I got an ERPPC. 300,000 cBills is fair for 25 MC, but I wouldn't have tried if not for the mech.

[DAYLEET]

Bilbo, on 21 July 2016 - 09:09 AM, said:

I cannot help in this endeavor, as all of mine will be sold for 50k c-bills. So unless they force me to look at the contents I'll not have a chance to take a screenshot.

You should keep them, dont need to open them. The next logical step is PGI making events that reward keys rather than game content, therefore reducing the amount of stuff given. No matter how bad that is, it would still be best that when you win those keys you have crates with mechbays(mech) in them nomather the low value of a mechbay.

[Mazzyplz]

would it help if the chances were even among the prizes ?

the keys would have to be made more expensive though

[Bilbo]

DAYLEET, on 21 July 2016 - 10:27 AM, said:

You should keep them, dont need to open them. The next logical step is PGI making events that reward keys rather than game content, therefore reducing the amount of stuff given. No matter how bad that is, it would still be best that when you win those keys you have crates with mechbays(mech) in them nomather the low value of a mechbay.

If I had need for anything offered in them that might be true. How many keys do suppose would be given out? I'd lose nothing by selling the caches until I had these free keys to use on them anyway. I don't have to do anything but be on a winning team to get the caches to use them on. Holding onto the caches in the hopes of getting a free key in the future is akin to hoarding premium time in the hopes that I'll want to play the game more in the future than I do now. No guarantee either will happen.

Edited by Bilbo, 21 July 2016 - 10:43 AM.

[SuomiWarder]

Without knowing the chance of a given item being granted the only way to calculate it from actual openings would require around 1,000 plus specifically tracked against what was available. Not going to happen.

[Bishop Steiner]

I think we need a "Key Sales Leaderboard" to track how well embraced this begged for "feature" truly is.

[C E Dwyer]

Who 'begged' for it

Can't have been the silent majority for obvious reasons.

Certainly wasn't the Island dwelling, vocal Minority.

you been sending twits to Russ again Bishop ?

[DAYLEET]

Bilbo, on 21 July 2016 - 10:40 AM, said:

If I had need for anything offered in them that might be true. How many keys do suppose would be given out? I'd lose nothing by selling the caches until I had these free keys to use on them anyway. I don't have to do anything but be on a winning team to get the caches to use them on. Holding onto the caches in the hopes of getting a free key in the future is akin to hoarding premium time in the hopes that I'll want to play the game more in the future than I do now. No guarantee either will happen.

i found it more trouble to go in inventory, look and sell the cache than click quick play instead.

[Templar Dane]

Bilbo, on 21 July 2016 - 09:46 AM, said:

If they have set the system up correctly, then you are just better off spending your money on the mechbays rather than the keys in the hopes of getting one. You will spend less money and end up with far more mechbays in the end. If you are using gifted mc for the keys, then the item weighting doesn't matter anyway because you stand to lose nothing to begin with.

Well you do lose some opportunity cost, since you can use the gifted MC for mechbays.

[-Natural Selection-]

MWO-go shuffle.. We want the %'s Jarvis!

Edited by Mickey Knoxx, 21 July 2016 - 11:02 AM.