344 replies to this topic

[Too Much Love]

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 04:03 AM, said:

It IS an absurd conspiracy theory.

Said marketing guy would rapidly be told by people with brains that the effect they want (everyone winning sometimes) will happen randomly anyway, since the allocation of people to teams is random, in that it doesnt care about who you are, just your Tier.

Maybe you noted that in original post I didn't look into PGi's possible intentions. It's not what I was looking after.

As Marx said about ideology, “They don't know what they are doing, but they are nonetheless doing it”. I don't know why PGI are doing it, but nonetheless they are doing it:)

My goal was to show that there are differences between skill level of opposing teams. This spread is rather big (nobody expects perfect 100% eqality), so in many cases the outcome of matches is determined. These results correlates with results of another study, that used much more data.

The rest are speculations. My study can't answer, what's the meaning of life, or if God exists, or what PGI employees eat for breakfast, but it doesn't make this study less important.

Edited by drunkblackstar, 22 April 2017 - 04:53 AM.

[Widowmaker1981]

drunkblackstar, on 22 April 2017 - 04:50 AM, said:

My goal was to show that there are differences between skill level of opposing teams. This spread is rather big (nobody expects perfect 100% eqality), so in many cases the outcome of matches is determined. These results correlates with results of another study, that used much more data.

And my contention is that said skill level disparity is easily explained by the fact that MM has no clue about the skill level of the players, because PSR is an XP bar, not a skill rating system. Its obvious and predictable, in fact, so there is no need for some conspiracy theory to explain it.

Edited by Widowmaker1981, 22 April 2017 - 05:36 AM.

[BLOOD WOLF]

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 05:35 AM, said:

And my contention is that said skill level disparity is easily explained by the fact that MM has no clue about the skill level of the players, because PSR is an XP bar, not a skill rating system. Its obvious and predictable, in fact, so there is no need for some conspiracy theory to explain it.

dude, you won like a page ago. Today is the march for science, and I think people need to understand a bit how scientific rigor works.

Also he keeps betting that "PGI has no clue what they are doing, but they keep doing it"which is a gross use of marx in this case. No matter what you put forth as an argument to explanation he just goes back to It's PGI's fault. This is purely a "random MM" at play.

What he needs to do is at least a few more studies, and some peer-review of other people trying to replicate the data.

Edited by BLOOD WOLF, 22 April 2017 - 05:45 AM.

[Too Much Love]

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 05:35 AM, said:

And my contention is that said skill level disparity is easily explained by the fact that MM has no clue about the skill level of the players, because PSR is an XP bar, not a skill rating system. Its obvious and predictable, in fact, so there is no need for some conspiracy theory to explain it.

And how it explains streak defeats or streak victories? Didn't PGI reveal you this secret along with the mechanics of MM?

BLOOD WOLF, on 22 April 2017 - 05:39 AM, said:

dude, you won like a page ago..

Don't recall if anybody granted you a power to name the victor;)

Edited by drunkblackstar, 22 April 2017 - 05:48 AM.

[Too Much Love]

BLOOD WOLF, on 22 April 2017 - 05:39 AM, said:

What he needs to do is at least a few more studies, and some peer-review of other people trying to replicate the data.

Why you need any studies? You do know for sure that MM uses PSR only and this flaw makes it to creat unequal team.

Edited by drunkblackstar, 22 April 2017 - 05:58 AM.

[Widowmaker1981]

drunkblackstar, on 22 April 2017 - 05:48 AM, said:

And how it explains streak defeats or streak victories? Didn't PGI reveal you this secret along with the mechanics of MM?

It doesnt, because in a large random system, streaks are to be expected.

Mind explaining to me how your contention (that matches are essentially fixed in advance) 'explains' the existence of win/lose streaks, anyway?

[Too Much Love]

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 05:51 AM, said:

It doesnt, because in a large random system, streaks are to be expected.

Mind explaining to me how your contention (that matches are essentially fixed in advance) 'explains' the existence of win/lose streaks, anyway?

Go check any coin toss calculator and calculate the probabiliy of 10 or 15 defeats of victories in a row. You will be surprised.

Yes, in a large random system streaks do happen. But there is a big difference between "to happen" and "to happen constantly".

Maybe in 1 million tosses you can get 15 eagles in a row, maybe you'll get it in the first 15 times.

But when your coin almost always flips 15 times eagle, then 15 times tail, and repeat - it means it's not random.

[Widowmaker1981]

drunkblackstar, on 22 April 2017 - 05:57 AM, said:

Go check any coin toss calculator and calculate the probabiliy of 10 or 15 defeats of victories in a row. You will be surprised.

Yes, in a large random system streaks do happen. But there is a big difference between "to happen" and "to happen constantly".

Maybe in 1 million tosses you can get 15 eagles in a row, maybe you'll get it in the first 15 times.

But when your coin almost always flips 15 times eagle, then 15 times tail, and repeat - it means it's not random.

ugh. They dont happen constantly, the fact that you think they do is your confirmation bias at work.

edit: and, again, explain why, if the matchmaker IS 'fixing' games as you contend, THAT causes streaks?

Edited by Widowmaker1981, 22 April 2017 - 06:03 AM.

[Too Much Love]

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 06:00 AM, said:

ugh. They dont happen constantly, the fact that you think they do is your confirmation bias at work.

Great! In the end to defend your position you need to claim that "they dont happen constantly", which is obviously not true for MWO.

Check Google: losing streak site:mwomercs.com

You'll find hundreds of posts about losing streaks. My own experience confirms that very much.

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 06:00 AM, said:

edit: and, again, explain why, if the matchmaker IS 'fixing' games as you contend, THAT causes streaks?

As I said already, I don't know for sure. I don't hold the answers for all the questions. My purpose was to show that, very likely, it happens in this way. Why? - this is the question you should adress to PGI.

[Widowmaker1981]

drunkblackstar, on 22 April 2017 - 06:16 AM, said:

Great! In the end to defend your position you need to claim that "they dont happen constantly", which is obviously not true for MWO.

Check Google: losing streak site:mwomercs.com

You'll find hundreds of posts about losing streaks. My own experience confirms that very much.

As I said already, I don't know for sure. I don't hold the answers for all the questions. My purpose was to show that, very likely, it happens in this way. Why? - this is the question you should adress to PGI.

Lots of people suffer from confirmation bias. If you want me to believe that 15 game win/loss streaks are inexplicably common, record a few hundred match screens in a row, and count the streaks. i bet any money they arent as constant as you think they are.

drunkblackstar, on 22 April 2017 - 05:57 AM, said:

Go check any coin toss calculator and calculate the probabiliy of 10 or 15 defeats of victories in a row. You will be surprised.

Yes, in a large random system streaks do happen. But there is a big difference between "to happen" and "to happen constantly".

Maybe in 1 million tosses you can get 15 eagles in a row, maybe you'll get it in the first 15 times.

But when your coin almost always flips 15 times eagle, then 15 times tail, and repeat - it means it's not random.

Oh, and by the way, consider this:

The odds of getting, from 10 coin flips, Head, Tails, Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails are EXACTLY the same as getting Heads 10 times in a row, or getting Tails 10 times in a row.

Edited by Widowmaker1981, 22 April 2017 - 07:06 AM.

[Nik Reaper]

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 06:00 AM, said:

"edit: and, again, explain why, if the matchmaker IS 'fixing' games as you contend, THAT causes streaks? "

Now this is the real question, does the MM have an additional check to see your W/L and make a division to place you on a lower scoring team repeatedly to equalize it to 1:1 , as nothing else really explains chain losses, unless you end up with the same lower skilled player most of that loss streak.

Unless there is such a W/L check there is no reasonable explanation other than bad luck you the player would be used to build a "losing" team.

[Tarogato]

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 06:49 AM, said:

Lots of people suffer from confirmation bias. If you want me to believe that 15 game win/loss streaks are inexplicably common, record a few hundred match screens in a row, and count the streaks. i bet any money they arent as constant as you think they are.

Actually, I did this myself a long long time ago.

WWWLWWWLLWWWWWLWWWWLLWLWLWLWLLWWWLWWWLLWWWLWWWLLLLWWWLWLWLWWWLLWWWWWLWWWLWLWWWWLLLWWWLWLLWWLWLLWWWLWLWLLWLWLLLWWWWWLLLLLLWLWWLLLWWLWWWLWLLLWLWWLLLLWWWWWWLLWLLWLLWWWWLLLLWWLLLLTLWWWLWWWWLWLWLLLLWWLWWLLLWLWWWLWWWWWLWWWWWLWLWLWWLWLWWWLWWLLLLWWWLLWWWWLWWLWWWLLLLWLWWLWLWWLWLWLWWWLWLLWWWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWLWWLWLLLWLLLWWWLWLLWWLWLLWWLLWWLLWWLWWLLLLWLWLWLWWLLWWLLLLLLWLWLLWWLWLLWLLLWWWWLLWLLWLWWLLWWLLWLWLWWWWLWWWWWWWLWLWWWLLLLWWWWWWLLLLLWWLLWLWWWLLLLLWWLLLLWWWLLLLWWWLLWLLLLLLWLWWWWWWLLWWLLWLWWWWWWWWLWWLLWWWWLWWLWLWLWLLLLLWLWLWWLWWWWLLWLLWLWWWLWWWLLWLLLWLWLLWLLLWLWWWLLLWWWLWWLWWWWLWLLLLLLWLLWWWWWWWLWLWLWLLWWLWWWWLWWWLWWLLLLWLLWWWWLLLWLWWWLWWWLLLWWWWWWWLLWLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWWLLWWWLLWWWWLLLWLWLWLWLLWWWLLWWWLLLLLWWWLWLLLLWWLLWWWWLWWWWLLWLLWLWLLWLWWWWWWWLWWLWLWWWLWWLWWWWWWLLWLLLLWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWLWLWLWWWWLLWLWWWLLLLWWLWWLWLLWLLWWLWWWWWLLWLWLWLLWLWWWLLLWLLLLWWWLLWWLWLWLWWLWWLLLWLLLLWLW


Final WLR was 1.25
Match count 882


10-win streaks: 2
9-win streaks: 4
8-win streaks: 8
7-win streaks: 12
6-win streaks: 20
5-win streaks: 39
4-win streaks: 88


6-loss streaks: 4
5-loss streaks: 8
4-loss streaks: 25

[BLOOD WOLF]

Few people here are even accounting for player action in their conclusions. It's hard to look at raw numbers without context. Also There are so many variables in between as well. Maybe they lost because they didn't take the high ground, or moved to grid X at the right time.

Those are things the MM alone can not account for. even with a list of W/L. It tells me nothing of the choices made during the match

Edited by BLOOD WOLF, 22 April 2017 - 07:39 AM.

[Widowmaker1981]

Tarogato, on 22 April 2017 - 07:29 AM, said:

Actually, I did this myself a long long time ago.

WWWLWWWLLWWWWWLWWWWLLWLWLWLWLLWWWLWWWLLWWWLWWWLLLLWWWLWLWLWWWLLWWWWWLWWWLWLWWWWLLLWWWLWLLWWLWLLWWWLWLWLLWLWLLLWWWWWLLLLLLWLWWLLLWWLWWWLWLLLWLWWLLLLWWWWWWLLWLLWLLWWWWLLLLWWLLLLTLWWWLWWWWLWLWLLLLWWLWWLLLWLWWWLWWWWWLWWWWWLWLWLWWLWLWWWLWWLLLLWWWLLWWWWLWWLWWWLLLLWLWWLWLWWLWLWLWWWLWLLWWWWWWWWWWLWWLLLWWLWWLWLLLWLLLWWWLWLLWWLWLLWWLLWWLLWWLWWLLLLWLWLWLWWLLWWLLLLLLWLWLLWWLWLLWLLLWWWWLLWLLWLWWLLWWLLWLWLWWWWLWWWWWWWLWLWWWLLLLWWWWWWLLLLLWWLLWLWWWLLLLLWWLLLLWWWLLLLWWWLLWLLLLLLWLWWWWWWLLWWLLWLWWWWWWWWLWWLLWWWWLWWLWLWLWLLLLLWLWLWWLWWWWLLWLLWLWWWLWWWLLWLLLWLWLLWLLLWLWWWLLLWWWLWWLWWWWLWLLLLLLWLLWWWWWWWLWLWLWLLWWLWWWWLWWWLWWLLLLWLLWWWWLLLWLWWWLWWWLLLWWWWWWWLLWLWLWWLLWLLWWLWWWLLWWWLLWWWWLLLWLWLWLWLLWWWLLWWWLLLLLWWWLWLLLLWWLLWWWWLWWWWLLWLLWLWLLWLWWWWWWWLWWLWLWWWLWWLWWWWWWLLWLLLLWWWWWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWLWWWWLWLWLWWWWLLWLWWWLLLLWWLWWLWLLWLLWWLWWWWWLLWLWLWLLWLWWWLLLWLLLLWWWLLWWLWLWLWWLWWLLLWLLLLWLW


Final WLR was 1.25
Match count 882


10-win streaks: 2
9-win streaks: 4
8-win streaks: 8
7-win streaks: 12
6-win streaks: 20
5-win streaks: 39
4-win streaks: 88


6-loss streaks: 4
5-loss streaks: 8
4-loss streaks: 25

And, from a random system, that doesnt look out of place to me.

[Tarogato]

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 07:40 AM, said:

And, from a random system, that doesnt look out of place to me.

Yup, I agree. Aside from the propensity toward more winning than losing, presumably because I'm OP. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Widowmaker1981]

Tarogato, on 22 April 2017 - 07:43 AM, said:

Yup, I agree. Aside from the propensity toward more winning than losing, presumably because I'm OP. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Based on your stats, you are an above average T1, so the higher than 1.0 win rate makes sense.

[Tarogato]

Widowmaker1981, on 22 April 2017 - 07:53 AM, said:

Based on your stats, you are an above average T1, so the higher than 1.0 win rate makes sense.

And there's part of your problem. I'd consider myself below average T1, or even a T2 player. But PGI has lower expectations.

Of course, than again, I'm in like the top 5% of all players. But I think that says less about me, and more about how terrible this playerbase is at playing the game. Just depresses me.

[CheapThrills]

Not like PGI couldn't just post some stats themselves to show the current state of MM with a focus on match results out of 1000 where you have a breakdown of match scores ranging from 12-0 to 12-11. Seriously, 8 pages of this of this when the thread should be "Hey PGI, show some updated stats for MM".

Edited by CheapThrills, 22 April 2017 - 08:45 AM.

[Squirg]

Agreed, with Widowmaker, MM uses PSR to make matches, PSR is horribly flawed as a true skill indicator, therefore MM can't make "balanced" matches even if it wanted to.

Large, 10+ w/l streaks happening constantly are merely confirmation bias and this study is worthless since is tells us nothing we didn't already know. Better players win more.

I did find blackstar's tinfoil hat MM rigging theory to be amusing though, thanks for giving me a chuckle on a lazy Saturday.

[Zergling]

I have to agree with Widowmaker; all this shows is that teams with more skilled players are more likely to win. There is no proof or evidence of the matchmaker deliberately stacking teams.