64 replies to this topic

[Too Much Love]

Sjorpha, on 21 April 2017 - 05:30 AM, said:

Yes, a coin flip is a good example in the sense that it is like the perfect matchmaker scenario. Each repetition has a 50/50 chance of either result.

I understad what you are saying. In other words "in the infinite universe everything is possible". The more something is happening, the greater the possibility of different combinations. Sounds reasonable, but as correct as it may be, nethertheless it's some general rhetoric, and not a proof of any kind.

Lets try to check this theory. There are numerous coin toss probability calculators online. I used one of them.

As many other players, who played MWO for long, I faced unpleasant events of losing 10-15 times in a row. What's the normal probability of that?

The probability of losing 15 times in a row during 1000 mathces is 1/32768.

Losing 10 times - 1/1024.

Edited by drunkblackstar, 21 April 2017 - 06:17 AM.

[ingramli]

loses for ~18/20 matches today....really being hated by pgi i guess.....that is even worse than a noob w/l ratio....

[Sjorpha]

drunkblackstar, on 21 April 2017 - 06:15 AM, said:

I understad what you are saying. In other words "in the infinite universe everything is possible". The more something is happening, the greater the possibility of different combinations. Sounds reasonable, but as correct as it may be, nethertheless it's some general rhetoric, and not a proof of any kind.

The point is that losing 10 times in a row, for example, is not implausible in any random system, therefore losing 10 times in a row isn't proof or indication of anything being rigged for or against you.

I'm not trying to prove anything, I'm just pointing out that you can't use results that would be expected in a random matchmaker as an indication that it is not random.

In other words, if your claim is that the matchmaker is rigged in some way, then a string of wins or losses isn't a data point in favor of your argument.

The burden of proof is on the person claiming something is rigged, so far no one has presented a good reason to believe that.

I'm also not convinced that 10 losses in a row is common or anything, it's never happened to me and I haven't seen anyone post evidence of it happening even once, much less often. I am guessing people have experience of losing a lot in a batch of matches, and then exaggerate thier own memories to being "all" losses. I'm actually not going to take anyone's word for it without evidence.

Also, the probability of strings of losses go might be very low for very extreme results, but they aren't very low for results that could still be percieved as extreme.

For example the chance of losing 7 times in a row in 150 matches is about 44%, fairly high. And that's a result i can imagine being harsh enough to make some people post threads like this.

Edited by Sjorpha, 21 April 2017 - 08:53 AM.

[MischiefSC]

Ruslan Savelyev, on 20 April 2017 - 09:56 PM, said:

You have a near 1-1 w/l with slightly above average match score and kdr. Your purported loss streak, if it was actually 3 hours, is clearly an anomaly and not the result of Russian interference in the matchmaker.

That was terribly funny.

[Dogstar]

Firstly, read about the Gambler's Fallacy

drunkblackstar, on 21 April 2017 - 06:15 AM, said:

Losing 10 times - 1/1024.

That's for each individual player but don't forget that there are (tens of) thousands of players each playing tens of games so a 10 loss streak occurs several times a day and it only takes one to come to the forum and mention it to make it look like the game is rigged.