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#41 Xiphias

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 05:46 AM

View PostTheUltimateGhost, on 24 June 2020 - 01:39 AM, said:

well, and what if the current avg matchscore is 222, right in that zone that doesn't go to extremes?
(pulled from https://leaderboard.isengrim.org/stats)

It's not the average that matters, it's the individual players averages that actually generate that average. That figure was generated using a distribution of simulated players pulled from Jarl's list data. Only players who are actually right at the average end up staying in the middle over time.

View PostBlechreiz, on 24 June 2020 - 01:57 AM, said:

Sorry, but I think your models aren't entirely correct since they seem to be based on the assumption that the average players performance will be static across all tiers. This is not the case.

Apart from the extremes at the top and bottom of the MS/performance scale, there's a strong indication that people will get higher AMS in the lower tiers 4 & 5 and will get lower scores in tier 1 & 2. This, imo, will prevent the envisioned scenario where you will end up with 60% of active players in T5 and will lead ultimately to a normal distribution.

I think, even though I voted for a different approach, the proposed changes would be a good change. Maybe the implementation and reset could be combined with some longer lootbag-type event to encourage people to play more?

One think that's not really clear to me is the situation of people starting the game; would they start in T3 or T5? Remembering the rather "brutal" start and steep learning curve for me, I think it wouldn't be a good idea to let them start in T3 where they could end up facing T1-players.

If you're referring the the first linked model, that's actually mine and admittedly has quite a few limitations (I plan to build a more robust one given the time).

That said, the absolute matchscore values don't matter because players are not being compared to a absolute matchscore threshold. If we picked values based on historic data to move players up or down that could work, and you would see exactly what you're saying (players would move into a higher tier, get matched against harder players, and get lower matchscores, stopping them from moving up further).

However, in this case relative matchscores are being used, how well a player scores is going to be dependent on how good their teammates and the enemy team are. To move up you need to basically be on average better than half the rest of the playerbase, otherwise you are going to scoring in the lower half more often than not (relative to the rest of your team/enemy team) and that will push you down over time.

#42 Pondafarr

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 06:09 AM

Ok, so as a average to slightly above average player, whom just worked my way into tier 1 this month right about when I completed 7000 matches, I have a question:

My PSR will be reset to 2500, regardless of my historical match performances. I assume (because I have not seen a direct reference to the minimum cutoff to be in Tier 1) that the Tier 1 minimum is 4000. So, I have to gain 1500 PSR to make Tier 1 again.

1500/24(approx perfect game psr change), I'll need at minimum 62 perfect games (win with top MS) to get back to Tier 1. Not. Gonna. Happen. Especially since your example appears to show only the top 9 of 24 players making a positive change, just like a casino, the odds favor the house for downward movement. Did I read the example incorrectly?

Seems I will be stuck in Tier 2 for the rest of my life...

Edited by Pondafarr, 24 June 2020 - 06:10 AM.


#43 Wraith of Shadow

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 07:06 AM

View PostPondafarr, on 24 June 2020 - 06:09 AM, said:

.... Seems I will be stuck in Tier 2 for the rest of my life...

Since 'Tier' is supposed to be a sorting strata... maybe it should be hidden so people stop using it as some kind of prestige thing.

#44 OneTeamPlayer

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 07:11 AM

View PostWraith of Shadow, on 24 June 2020 - 07:06 AM, said:

Since 'Tier' is supposed to be a sorting strata... maybe it should be hidden so people stop using it as some kind of prestige thing.


Nah, people probably should just get over the idea that they deserve a tier.

If MM works properly whatever tier you "earn" ensures that you will have the most competitive experience for your skill level so people should want to be in Tier 2 if they are tier 2 and want to be in tier 5 if they are tier 5 players.

That is if matchmaking works properly.

#45 East Indy

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 07:15 AM

This is great. Doesn't need to be perfect if it looks like an improvement. That said, keep an eye on it and lines of communication with its authors open.

#46 Ridir Semii

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 07:39 AM

View PostSjorpha, on 23 June 2020 - 11:31 PM, said:

I'm also surprised to see so many players in tier 5, is that because there are a lot of new accounts?


Perhaps, or like me, they had garbage computers that no longer played MWO, and had to wait until real life opened up the opportunity to get a good machine and since, have been fighting an uphill battle through noobs, baby seals and potatoes to get out of it.... Luck of the MM has far more to do with the tier we end up in than we wish to believe....


View PostPondafarr, on 24 June 2020 - 06:09 AM, said:

Seems I will be stuck in Tier 2 for the rest of my life...


And your point is? The entire tier system is just a system of arbitrary titles placed on folks for MM purposes...

#47 RKS Phoenix

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 07:43 AM

I wonder how the waiting times are going to be affected by the new changes? Also, I suppose FP MM will not be affected by these changes? Not that it would matter for such a small population.

#48 Nesutizale

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 07:52 AM

@PGI

Can you please hide the Tier system? People realy seam to get the idea that its some ranking you need to work your way through.

#49 Spare Knight

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 07:55 AM

View PostRKS Phoenix, on 24 June 2020 - 07:43 AM, said:

I wonder how the waiting times are going to be affected by the new changes? Also, I suppose FP MM will not be affected by these changes? Not that it would matter for such a small population.


FP does not take into account Tier Level.

View PostPondafarr, on 24 June 2020 - 06:09 AM, said:

Ok, so as a average to slightly above average player, whom just worked my way into tier 1 this month right about when I completed 7000 matches, I have a question:

My PSR will be reset to 2500, regardless of my historical match performances. I assume (because I have not seen a direct reference to the minimum cutoff to be in Tier 1) that the Tier 1 minimum is 4000. So, I have to gain 1500 PSR to make Tier 1 again.

1500/24(approx perfect game psr change), I'll need at minimum 62 perfect games (win with top MS) to get back to Tier 1. Not. Gonna. Happen. Especially since your example appears to show only the top 9 of 24 players making a positive change, just like a casino, the odds favor the house for downward movement. Did I read the example incorrectly?

Seems I will be stuck in Tier 2 for the rest of my life...


If you are average to slightly above average, you belong in Tier 3, like most of us. :-)

#50 Kosomok

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 08:00 AM

View PostNesutizale, on 24 June 2020 - 07:52 AM, said:

@PGI

Can you please hide the Tier system? People realy seam to get the idea that its some ranking you need to work your way through.


Tier SHOULD NOT BE A THING. Players should have NEVER seen it ITFP.

It is a number used by a piece of software to (hopefully) create more even matches from an available pool of players.

It is NOT a reward. Going up isn't a reward, going down isn't a punishment--but the player base has defined it that way.

Your reward in a match is 1) the satisfaction of winning (if you did) and 2) the CBills. The punishment is the feeling you get from losing (and making fewer CBills). Not much of a punishment, really.

As suggested, make this number invisible.

#51 Dakkalistic

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 08:01 AM

View PostNightbird, on 23 June 2020 - 05:52 PM, said:

Well, we know the update will fail because:

1. the formula fails to stabilize people at any PSR value other than 0 or 5000 (forget that bell curve, 0 chance of that happening)
2. groups are given a large unfair advantage in the formula, solos get ready
3. number of stomps will not change (and may get worse for two months)
4. 60% of the player base will be sent - fast or slow - to Tier 5 for being below average
5. T5 players are 2.5x more likely to quit MWO

Because Math is not an Opinion.

So rather than waiting for 2 months to see proof of whether 1+1=5, I give you the result now:

Spoiler


P.S. The tier/population graph needs to be players*games to present the relative number of people in each tier as relevant for the queue. See 5 above.


You may want to look up what words like "we" and "know" actually mean

#52 OneTeamPlayer

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 08:04 AM

View PostKosomok, on 24 June 2020 - 08:00 AM, said:


Tier SHOULD NOT BE A THING. Players should have NEVER seen it ITFP.

It is a number used by a piece of software to (hopefully) create more even matches from an available pool of players.

It is NOT a reward. Going up isn't a reward, going down isn't a punishment--but the player base has defined it that way.

Your reward in a match is 1) the satisfaction of winning (if you did) and 2) the CBills. The punishment is the feeling you get from losing (and making fewer CBills). Not much of a punishment, really.

As suggested, make this number invisible.


If the visible tier system hadn't been visible this thread probably wouldn't have existed as we wouldn't have had multiple dozens of people with visible proof that Tier 1 players were dropping with cadets and T5 players, also that players with stats that were nowhere near T1 stats were sitting in T1 getting matches in which they were underskilled.

Be careful what you wish for.

#53 TheUltimateGhost

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 08:05 AM

View PostPondafarr, on 24 June 2020 - 06:09 AM, said:

Ok, so as a average to slightly above average player, whom just worked my way into tier 1 this month right about when I completed 7000 matches, I have a question:

My PSR will be reset to 2500, regardless of my historical match performances. I assume (because I have not seen a direct reference to the minimum cutoff to be in Tier 1) that the Tier 1 minimum is 4000. So, I have to gain 1500 PSR to make Tier 1 again.

1500/24(approx perfect game psr change), I'll need at minimum 62 perfect games (win with top MS) to get back to Tier 1. Not. Gonna. Happen. Especially since your example appears to show only the top 9 of 24 players making a positive change, just like a casino, the odds favor the house for downward movement. Did I read the example incorrectly?

Seems I will be stuck in Tier 2 for the rest of my life...


so what? it'll mean you're gonna be matched against equally skilled players and probably have a better time playing MWO

I myself will probably be T2 and I'll honestly enjoy it as it means I can have some better matches :)

(tip: if you wanna get into T1 anyways, there's always the option to play better)

#54 Kosomok

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 08:09 AM

View PostOneTeamPlayer, on 24 June 2020 - 08:04 AM, said:

If the visible tier system hadn't been visible this thread probably wouldn't have existed as we wouldn't have had multiple dozens of people with visible proof that Tier 1 players were dropping with cadets and T5 players, also that players with stats that were nowhere near T1 stats were sitting in T1 getting matches in which they were underskilled.

Be careful what you wish for.


If the system worked and the population was large enough, the concerns you list would not have been an issue ITFP.

Guess what, even with the new system you are still going to have T1 and cadets in the same drops. There isn't enough population for it to be otherwise.

The problem isn't so much the MM system as it is the limited population.

#55 Knight Captain Morgan

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 08:13 AM

It’s fantastic to finally have that all settled, now please let us know if the matchmaker “valves” will still allow groups with any tier 1 player in it to face an opposing team with any tier 5 solo on it.

#56 OneTeamPlayer

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 08:38 AM

View PostKosomok, on 24 June 2020 - 08:09 AM, said:


If the system worked and the population was large enough, the concerns you list would not have been an issue ITFP.

[snip]

The problem isn't so much the MM system as it is the limited population.


I can concede those two are valid and quite possibly true points.

#57 East Indy

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 09:04 AM

View PostPondafarr, on 24 June 2020 - 06:09 AM, said:

1500/24(approx perfect game psr change), I'll need at minimum 62 perfect games (win with top MS) to get back to Tier 1. Not. Gonna. Happen.

It's not supposed to happen. You're supposed to be balanced on teams against other players with ~0.5 K/D and 20% survival rates, having more fun in a more interesting match, instead of being balanced against Proton because the matchmaker doesn't know any better, and getting wiped in 4 minutes.

#58 MrMadguy

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 09:43 AM

At the end I don't care, how it will be implemented. I just want all that loses and stomps to matter. That's it.

#59 CFC Conky

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 09:47 AM

View PostPondafarr, on 24 June 2020 - 06:09 AM, said:

...

Seems I will be stuck in Tier 2 for the rest of my life...


Most incels are T2 and lower...

Under the new system, players who reach T1 have to change their name to Chad or Stacey.

Posted Image

Edited by CFC Conky, 24 June 2020 - 09:49 AM.


#60 Capt Deadpool

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Posted 24 June 2020 - 10:01 AM

View PostCFC Conky, on 24 June 2020 - 09:47 AM, said:


Most incels are T2 and lower...

Under the new system, players who reach T1 have to change their name to Chad or Stacey.

Posted Image


Lol yes I have been thinking Tier 1's name should just be changed to Garbage Tier which would be both hilarious and effective.





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