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Jan 2024 Patch Leaks And Rumors


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#341 Shineplasma

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:20 PM

As for this:.

---
Shineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 08:44 AM, said:

To protect the same people who would be most affected/punished by LRMs being over-buffed from being farmed by Bassault's Annihilator.


So the underlying truth is that even Bassault would go with the (alleged) "no skill weapons" if those somehow were overall on par with lasers and ballistics?

---

That's not the point that was being made.

I was trying to state that if lrms were overbuffed again, lower and mid-tier skill players who chose to abuse LRMs would be able to farm helpless new and bottom-tier players much the same way that Bassault or a similar calibre player would be able to do if the matchmaking system regularly matched T1 against T5s.

Like foxes in a henhouse, and it has happened before! The prior LRMageddons were the primary reason for large exoduses of the wider playerbase in the pre-cauldron era of MWO. I was there, it was terrible and I myself was one of the players who quit the game entirely for a few years there.

Knowing Bassault, he would likely rather do almost anything else rather than play LRMs (even if they were OP/solo queue meta) since he finds them extraordinarily boring to play. As do most high tier, comp and 90+% players, in my experience.

Edited by Shineplasma, 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM.


#342 Mechwarrior2342356

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:23 PM

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 12:09 PM, said:

Its worth noting that pure match score (jarls % is adjusted avg MS) and psr gain/tier often don't line up cleanly.

It is easier to earn psr on a win than a loss, and there are also ways to farm match score without increasing your winrate.

For example: Our friend MechMaster has a significantly higher Jarls % (72% vs 61%) than my father's account, despite being in a lower tier. Dad is Tier 1 (bar half-full) and mostly solo queues, but despite farming less match score on average, he has a higher winrate than MechMaster and thus gains more PSR per match score earned.

Dad also has a much better grasp on the mechanics of this game and how the weapon systems interact than most, and often gives good comms to his team which result in game-winning plays, which is something that is hard to quantify in a database and really only shows in winrate.

Not knowing the pilot personally can make it hard to gauge the tier of an individual account in the way you are requesting, using raw jarls % alone.

If your account was in T3 it wouldn't surprise me, nor would it surprise me if it was in T1.


Never mind, misread the statement about MS correlation

Edited by the check engine light, 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM.


#343 Besh

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:25 PM

View PostCurccu, on 12 January 2024 - 12:33 AM, said:

Who is this player base?


I can tell you, the 90-99 percentiles are at max 10% of it ( the Playerbase ).
Posted Image

Edited by Besh, 12 January 2024 - 12:34 PM.


#344 Der Geisterbaer

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

No, if the weapon was boring or I didn't like it I wouldn't play it. I also don't see how that's relevant to what shineplasma said. He was saying that tier gates exist so I don't farm new players and the very low skilled players.


Interesting ... so if "low skilled" players were to show up in your game due to playing "low skill" but "effective" LRM you'd still expect to be able to "farm" them?

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

That's where they all are at least.


And who else is there? Posted Image

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

I would guess 276-401 is tier 1.


So you think tier 1 is about a third in witdh of the entire percentile spectrum. Very interesting.

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

I think it's pointless to have this conversation since the matchmaker will never get fixed.


The question wasn't necessarily about fixing matchmaker but okay.

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

But I think tier 1 should be 350 and above. Are there enough players in the game for that? No, so this question is pointless.


It's pointless to you (as expected Posted Image )

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

Also matchscore is not the best indicator of performance.


So which metric actually represents "player skill"?

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

Lights usually get a bit less matchscore than other mechs do but that does not represent how effective they are when played correctly, so my 350 ms requirement for tier 1 is a bit arbitrary.


Now that's a rather surprising level of self-reflection on your end.

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

Sometimes it isn't just intellect that determines if you can be a good judge of game balance. It's ability as well, because it happens that a lot of balance is determinant on the ability of players.


So you still insist that a player must be "able" (=distinctively above average in terms of gameplay skill / achievements) in order to be able to make judgment on balance (which should typically be done based on metrics and not individual feelings)

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

Is the velocity of a certain weapon making it too easy to use or too hard to use? If you suck too much at aiming, you may find yourself more often than not say it is too hard.


And your personal feeling concerning velocity is "better" (and thus better "balanced") because you have better aim and as such have zero insight on how it feels for someone of mere "average" skill (who actually make up about 66% within whatever normal distribution your looking at) ?!

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

Now this doesn't mean that I don't think someone who is not good at the game can say something reasonable that makes sense. If I did not make that clear earlier, I would like to make it clear now. However, the majority of the time, they do not make good balance suggestions because they simply don't understand enough because they haven't reached the level of understanding and seen what's *really* possible when you are good enough.


You already poisned the well there by making sweeping claims about the inability of players below your previsously not even quantified threshold of "goodness at play". You made it worse with explicit insults. So you'll have to forgive me when I'm taking this statement with heavy loads of salt

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

I suppose it depends on the person. I've personally taught some players to get better than they were before by giving them better builds and coaching them over a period of time. Some get better, some do not. That's also how I went from 270 avg scores to 450's now, someone picked me up and played with me and taught me everything.


It indeed "depends on the person" and the reality of things still is: The normal distribution of skills within human populations simply doesn't allow for more than about 17% to be truly "above average".

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

Well if you can't git gud don't act like an expert, try to learn from those who are.


And another reminder: about 83% of any typical population will never be able to reach the levels that you demand before considering their opinions. They can "try to learn" from guys like you as much as they want the result will still be the same: They suck at the game itself despite having exposed to your "wisdom" about the actual mechanics and balance.

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

Tier 3


No ... btw, is that T3 for both where I'm now and where I'm supposed to be?

Edited by Der Geisterbaer, 12 January 2024 - 12:39 PM.


#345 Quicksilver Aberration

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:32 PM

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 12:09 PM, said:

Its worth noting that pure match score (jarls % is adjusted avg MS) and psr gain/tier often don't line up cleanly.

It is easier to earn psr on a win than a loss, and there are also ways to farm match score without increasing your winrate.

For example: Our friend MechMaster has a significantly higher Jarls % (72% vs 61%) than my father's account, despite being in a lower tier. Dad is Tier 1 (bar half-full) and mostly solo queues, but despite farming less match score on average, he has a higher winrate than MechMaster and thus gains more PSR per match score earned.

Dad also has a much better grasp on the mechanics of this game and how the weapon systems interact than most, and often gives good comms to his team which result in game-winning plays, which is something that is hard to quantify in a database and really only shows in winrate.

Honestly, this just makes me wish we had ELO back and ditched PSR as a whole. Trying to gauge how you got to a result rather than the result itself just seems backwards. Better players are just going to win more, and this was true even way back when we had ELO (pretty sure Proton and TFun had the highest ELOs leading up to MLMW). Soup queue being the soup queue does complicate that no different than it complicates premier mode ELO in Counterstrike 2 but meh, we already have that problem with PSR/match score and it's not like we have the population to split it out anyway.

#346 Der Geisterbaer

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:38 PM

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 12:09 PM, said:

Its worth noting that pure match score (jarls % is adjusted avg MS) and psr gain/tier often don't line up cleanly.


Which makes demands for certain Tiers in order to be recognized even worse (as well as the also derived percentiles).

Quote

Not knowing the pilot personally can make it hard to gauge the tier of an individual account in the way you are requesting, using raw jarls % alone.


That brings us back to why Jarl's stats are so often used to dismiss other players ;)

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 11:44 AM, said:

If your account was in T3 it wouldn't surprise me, nor would it surprise me if it was in T1.


I'll not "ruin" the "surprise" not just yet

#347 Luminios

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:42 PM

View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 11:09 AM, said:

5. With 3. and 4. in mind: How solid are "arguments" that you have to "git gud" a.k.a. reaching tier 1 before an opinion is truly considered? Because that's what at least some in here have argued


I know you have already specified that only some people have argued that point. Anyway, I want to make the case, that even MechMaster059 made a point that almost everyone would agree with - proving that you can make some balance judgments that are respectable, even without having the skills to get into T1: ammo adjustments for ballistics. He stated that he raised that point previously and it got recently adjusted.

That being said, I personally believe that MWO is a game where you really need to at least be in touch with the very highest levels of play to be able to form profound opinions on the balance of the game. Even the cauldron occasionally misses the mark, but I trust their experience and their process to improve upon the game step by step while allowing new content to be added.

#348 Shineplasma

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:43 PM

---

Interesting ... so if "low skilled" players were to show up in your game due to playing "low skill" but "effective" LRM you'd still expect to be able to "farm" them?

---

Contrary to some of the ridiculous statements in this thread, high tier players would have the easiest time adjusting to LRMs being strong/meta. Many would simply switch to playing true snipers or poptart mechs which can abuse cover effectively.

Some folks earlier said that the cauldron/all us toxic compies have been "keeping LRMs down because they counter their pet sniper meta".

Which is hilarious, because snipers actually dunk on LRM boats in most instances purely due to the fact that they can deal concentrated damage while playing outside the max range of missiles.

I can stand 1100-1400m out and core lrm boats out without ever being threatened by a missile.

Light mechs and poptarts are the true counters to sniper mechs, but most low tier players lack the game sense or mechanics to properly utilize them.

Edited by Shineplasma, 12 January 2024 - 01:30 PM.


#349 Shineplasma

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:51 PM

View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 12:38 PM, said:


That brings us back to why Jarl's stats are so often used to dismiss other players ;)

I'll not "ruin" the "surprise" not just yet


You say that like its some kind of "gotcha" moment.

I'm gonna share with you folks a concept from the comp community:

"A 99% Jarls may not tell me if you're a good pilot or not, but there are *no* good pilots with a low Jarls."

One of the best players to ever grace this game shared that with me when I was first getting into comp. He's 100% correct.

Sincerely,

- The voice of the sobbing muhjarls death-horn (me)

Edited by Shineplasma, 12 January 2024 - 12:58 PM.


#350 Bassault

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 12:52 PM

View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM, said:


Interesting ... so if "low skilled" players were to show up in your game due to playing "low skill" but "effective" LRM you'd still expect to be able to "farm" them?

Of course I would.


View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM, said:

And who else is there? Posted Image

Players who aren't that good at the game.


View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM, said:

So you think tier 1 is about a third in witdh of the entire percentile spectrum. Very interesting.

Probably a bit less.

View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM, said:

So which metric actually represents "player skill"?

It's a mix of kills per game, average wlr when playing alone, and matchscore.

View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM, said:

So you still insist that a player must be "able" (=distinctively above average in terms of gameplay skill / achievements) in order to be able to make judgment on balance (which should typically be done based on metrics and not individual feelings)

Sometimes it has to be done with feelings because determining if a ppc's velocity is too low or too high to be accurate with cannot be simply done with numbers.

View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM, said:

And your personal feeling concerning velocity is "better" (and thus better "balanced") because you have better aim and as such have zero insight on how it feels for someone of mere "average" skill (who actually make up about 66% within whatever normal distribution your looking at) ?!

Yeah they need to get better. If a ppc has enough velocity for the average player, for the good player it would be insanely overpowered, they would crush lobbies. The average player needs to get better or accept mediocrity.

View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 12:26 PM, said:

And another reminder: about 83% of any typical population will never be able to reach the levels that you demand before considering their opinions. They can "try to learn" from guys like you as much as they want the result will still be the same: They suck at the game itself despite having exposed to your "wisdom" about the actual mechanics and balance.

I don't believe this at all, it's a lot less than 83%. A lot of people are held back by knowledge and builds, and some people need more practice than others. Some people don't know how good you actually can get, and remain mediocre forever, making excuses to themselves when they get glimpses of the top 1% players doing things.

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 12:51 PM, said:

You say that like its some kind of "gotcha" moment.

I'm gonna share with you folks a concept from the comp community:

"A 99% Jarls may not tell me if you're are a good pilot or not, but there are *no* good pilots with a low Jarls."

Sincerely,

- The voice of the sobbing muhjarls death-horn

This is exacty it

#351 Shineplasma

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 01:03 PM

"Muhjarls" is a big meme for a reason.

Its a great tool, but a subjective measuring stick, which people often mis-use or don't fully understand.

The percentiles can be used to evaluate pilot skill in some ways, and give context to what people are saying, but it should always be taken with a grain of salt.

Even for those with "good" percentile ratings, there are ways to game the system.

Edited by Shineplasma, 12 January 2024 - 01:08 PM.


#352 Der Geisterbaer

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 01:10 PM

View PostLuminios, on 12 January 2024 - 12:42 PM, said:

Even the cauldron occasionally misses the mark, but I trust their experience and their process to improve upon the game step by step while allowing new content to be added.


Personally I have little reason not to trust them overall in the same way you do. However, I'm regularly annoyed by
  • lack of decent communication of the reasons behind certain developments here in the forums. (Yes I know, I could join the Discord server, but my personal experience with various Discords of that kind simply doesn't make that worthwhile).
  • the dismissive nature of comments from supporters of the Cauldron (and in some cases even Cauldron members as well) that turn actual discussion threads into the exact type of poisoned "brown sea" that the very same people both try to distance themselves from as well as making jokes about (the necessary cognitive dissonance there seems mind boggling to me). And no, "eye for an eye" as justifictaion for simply "returning the favour" of some of the Cauldron "sceptic" to me just doesn't fly ... the motto should be "be better or don't even engage beyond making info available"

*****************************************************************************************

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 12:43 PM, said:

Which is hilarious, because snipers actually dunk on LRM boats in most instances purely due to the fact that they can deal concentrated damage by playing outside the max range of missiles.

I can stand 1100-1400m out and core lrm boats out without ever being threatened by a missile.


Which could raise the question if that situation is even supposed to be that way in terms of balance. But that's another discussion that probably wouldn't end well, or would it?!

#353 Der Geisterbaer

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 01:14 PM

View PostBassault, on 12 January 2024 - 12:52 PM, said:

I don't believe this at all, it's a lot less than 83%. A lot of people are held back by knowledge and builds, and some people need more practice than others. Some people don't know how good you actually can get, and remain mediocre forever, making excuses to themselves when they get glimpses of the top 1% players doing things.


That only raises the question for me how well you understand normal distributions.

#354 Shineplasma

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 01:18 PM

View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 01:10 PM, said:


Which could raise the question if that situation is even supposed to be that way in terms of balance. But that's another discussion that probably wouldn't end well, or would it?!


Its another discussion which has been had this thread and explained already, you just seem to be ignoring that.

Why should an easier to use weapon which aims for you be able to win in a 1v1 fight against a much higher skillcap weapon?

That sounds like bad game design which doesn't reward mastery or investment.

Systems which are easier to use/learn generally shouldn't outperform weapons/systems which are more difficult to master in any game, especially any PVP game.

Since this game is a shooter, I'd expect people to understand that weapons which require you to expose yourself to enemy fire and actually aim at/hit them using your own mechanical skill should generally be more effective than those that do not.

People who don't understand these concepts are not informed enough to make debating game balance with them any further worthwhile. Especially when they won't even take the cursory step of actually reaching out to the community which has these discussions in-depth, vets proposals, discusses them at length and actually votes on whether or not they would be good for the wider playerbase.

All you do is argue in circles. I'm sure you'll forget everything that's been stated here about jarls, tiers, match score and all the rest in time for next month's thread.

What a waste of my time.

Good luck folks, I'm outta here lol.

Edited by Shineplasma, 12 January 2024 - 01:28 PM.


#355 Bassault

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 01:20 PM

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 12:43 PM, said:

---

Interesting ... so if "low skilled" players were to show up in your game due to playing "low skill" but "effective" LRM you'd still expect to be able to "farm" them?

---

Contrary to some of the ridiculous statements in this thread, high tier players would have the easiest time adjusting to LRMs being strong/meta. Many would simply switch to playing true snipers or poptart mechs which can abuse cover effectively.

Some folks earlier said that the cauldron/all us toxic compies have been "keeping LRMs down because they counter their pet sniper meta".

Which is hilarious, because snipers actually dunk on LRM boats in most instances purely due to the fact that they can deal concentrated damage by playing outside the max range of missiles.

I can stand 1100-1400m out and core lrm boats out without ever being threatened by a missile.

Light mechs and poptarts are the true counters to sniper mechs, but most low tier players lack the game sense or mechanics to properly utilize them.

Also more of an incentive to have high alpha builds. Why would I ever want to be away from cover? Why not just blow my load and take cover since if LRMs got buffed I'd need cover EVEN more.

#356 Besh

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 01:22 PM

View PostDer Geisterbaer, on 12 January 2024 - 01:14 PM, said:


That only raises the question for me how well you understand normal distributions.


"A picture says more than a thousand words" ?

But wait, I remember...there was a picture somewhere in this Thread .

Edited by Besh, 12 January 2024 - 01:22 PM.


#357 Der Geisterbaer

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Posted 12 January 2024 - 01:37 PM

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 01:18 PM, said:

Its another discussion which has been had this thread and explained already, you just seem to be ignoring that.


I haven't ignored it at all. Again the devil is in the details

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 01:18 PM, said:

Why should an easier to use weapon which aims for you be able to win in a 1v1 fight against a much higher skillcap weapon?


Who talked about "winning" there? The major point you tried to make is that snipers have the range advantage over LRM and thus would even win over LRM user if LRM were stronger. My question howver nowhere inferred that LRM need necessarily to be made stronger but rather pointed out that even an attempt of merely raising the question whether or not the range advantage should exist in the first place would directly lead into another mine field ... and given how you end your comment my prediction was spot on.

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 01:18 PM, said:

That sounds like bad game design which doesn't reward mastery or investment.


Which game design are we talking there? The one you strawmaned my question into or the actual question that I implicitly raised? Because

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 01:18 PM, said:

Systems which are easier to use/learn generally shouldn't outperform weapons/systems which are more difficult to master in any game, especially any PVP game.


I nowhere suggested a system )of LRM) that outperforms other more "difficult" weapons (like Gauss, [quirked] PPCs or [quirked] large lasers.)

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 01:18 PM, said:

All you do is argue in circles.


Am I really?

View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 01:18 PM, said:

I'm sure you'll forget everything that's been stated about jarls, tiers, match score and all the rest in time for next month's thread.


A perfect example of what I was talking about ~laugh~


View PostShineplasma, on 12 January 2024 - 01:18 PM, said:

What a waste of my time.


I'll leave you then with a "Glad to be of service"





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