Allright, I've run six more games tonight with my friend who helps me count ECM and TAG and have five new data points to add. The last game was a wash since we had a stalker disconnect and had a jerk on the team friendly fire an Atlas right in the back tearing off the armor - he then disconnected, so I decided it wasn't a good data point.
Our side always has 1 ECM since I piloted a trollmando 2D or Craven 3L for the duration of the tests.
The hypothesis is that the team with more ECMs will tend to win more often.
Out of curiosity I also counted TAG systems on each team to get a gage of how smart of an idea taking LRMs into a PUG match is. This was done this last thursday so this is with the upgraded TAG having been out for several days:.
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 1, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: No
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 2, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(1ECM each)
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:0, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: No
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:0, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:0, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 1, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(2ECM each)
Us: ECM 2, TAG 0, Them: ECM:0, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: No
Us: ECM 3, TAG 0, Them: ECM:3, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(3ECM each)
Us: ECM 3, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Latest 5 games: Done 1 January 2013
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(1ECM each)
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Lost Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 1, TAG 0, Them: ECM:1, TAG 1, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Inconclusive(1ECM each)
Us: ECM 4, TAG 1, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Us: ECM 3, TAG 0, Them: ECM:2, TAG 0, Outcome: We Won Matched Expectation: Yes
Evaluation: 5 matches had equal numbers of ECM and are marked inconclusive, leaving 13 matches. Of these 3 matches went against the hypothesis while 10 were for it. This is a small sample set but using the methods for binary outcomes on page 10 of this document (dealing with binary outcomes in a finite population)
http://classes.soe.u...nter03/h5m3.pdf I calculate the 1 sigma uncertainty at 1.52 matches.
This means that the outcomes could be wrong by up to 2.30 sigmas before the hypothesis would be neutralized/wrong.
Assuming a normal distribution etc. this gives erf(2.30/sqrt(2))= 0.979
I believe this means that even with this small sample set I can state that ECM is a match decider with 97.9% certainty. The other way of stating this outcome is that you are 3.3x more likely to win the match if your side has a larger number of ECMs on your team. I expect this latter number to reduce with a larger data set, but so far ECM seems to be the best way of predicting the outcome of a match - I would gladly bet money using this.
I will keep track of more of my matches to tighten these bounds but so far I can state with (
97.9%) confidence that
the team with more ECMs will tend to win the match, all other factors being equal.
Tag should also not be expected to be there in the vast majority of matches so do not take LRMs expecting a TAG to be around to help unless you take it yourself.