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Pugs Are Probably Exaggerating


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#141 Ilwrath

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:24 AM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 06:20 AM, said:

You have a 46% win rate and you are sick of losing? I'd say you are doing quite well as a PUG! You are winning almost half of your matches!


Sub 50% win rate in a game is of course crap. It proves that you are unable to impact the matches.

#142 PiVoR

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:24 AM

I just want to say that i quit this game 2 months ago cause of premade vs pug issue.
And i just come back and nothing changed.. i'll stick to Hawken.

#143 Yokaiko

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:25 AM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 06:23 AM, said:

64% win rate... Stomping... LOL.



Mine is roughly 75% 1160/417 I pug for around an hour a day usually and play no more than three...ever.

#144 Thirdstar

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:25 AM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 06:23 AM, said:

64% win rate... Stomping... LOL.


Yes, ignore this guy and others. Doesn't suit your agenda.

"If I drop in a 4 group we almost always win. If I drop as a pug it depends on what time it is. During european afternoon there wont really be groups on so pugging is very viable, at primetime you'll lose more often than not. That's my experience (~2000 games played)"

#145 Murku

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:29 AM

And it devolves once more into 'MWO is a team game, get used to it' vs 'I should be able to play casually without teaming'.

As a solo PUG player I have NO PROBLEM with premade teams being in the solo queue. All I would like to see is that they are balanced fairly in each group.

A step in the right direction would be at least showing us on the team roster screen which players are in a premade group. This would answer quite quickly if 'Premades' are loaded evenly. Better yet, actually sorting out Comms as native would make casual players be better able to knit. Give it an off switch and all our TS people don't get upset.

Does it make a difference? Played River City yesterday and recognized a players name from the Forums (MaVRK, or something like that). In Group speak I jokingly asked if he was slumming it, and he answered that he had dropped with a single Kaos buddy to try out new tactics. They both had Cataphracts, and were perfecting join timed strikes each alphaing 2PPCs and a Gauss Rifle (that's a pinpoint 70 hit). And yes, it was fairly effective.

Without native Comms this game needs to balance premade groups. Period. Balancing them in the PUG queue, or even going back to a single queue is fine by me.

Edited by Murku, 24 January 2013 - 06:31 AM.


#146 Yokaiko

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:30 AM

View PostMurku, on 24 January 2013 - 06:29 AM, said:

And it devolves once more into 'MWO is a team game, get used to it' vs 'I should be able to play casually without teaming'.

As a solo PUG player I have NO PROBLEM with premade teams being in the solo queue. All I would like to see is that they are balanced fairly in each group.

A set in the right direction would be at least showing us on the team roster screen which players are in a premade group. This would answer quite quickly if 'Premades' are loaded evenly. Better yet, actually sorting out Comms as native would make casual players be better able to knit. Give it an off switch and all out TS people don't get upset.

Does it make a difference? Played River City yesterday and recognized a players name from the Forums (MaVRK, or something like that). In Group speak I jokingly asked if he was slumming it, and he answered that he had dropped with a single Kaos buddy to try out new tactics. They both had Cataphracts, and were perfecting join timed strikes each alphaing 2PPCs and a Gauss Rifle (that's a pinpoint 70 hit). And yes, it was fairly effective.

Without native Comms this game needs to balance premade groups. Period. Balancing them in the PUG queue, or even going back to a single queue is fine by me.



That is exactly what it TRIES to do. Go read the patchnotes from phase one.

#147 Broceratops

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:34 AM

the truly terrible pugs are not forum visitors. the awesome that shoot lrms without a target are the ones people complain about.

#148 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:36 AM

View PostYokaiko, on 24 January 2013 - 06:25 AM, said:



Mine is roughly 75% 1160/417 I pug for around an hour a day usually and play no more than three...ever.
Thats a very respectable Win/loss!
...
...
...For any one PUG or Premade.


View PostMr Potts, on 24 January 2013 - 06:25 AM, said:

Yes, ignore this guy and others. Doesn't suit your agenda.
Nuff said.

#149 Yokaiko

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:38 AM

Another loss.

Conquest mode of river city, three deaths to LRM due to everyone zerging into theta...more matchmaker fail.

Notice a thread here?

EVERY damn loss is people scatering or picking the WORST possible tactic (going out in the open) as an opening manuver.

#150 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:42 AM

View PostMurku, on 24 January 2013 - 06:29 AM, said:

And it devolves once more into 'MWO is a team game, get used to it' vs 'I should be able to play casually without teaming'.

As a solo PUG player I have NO PROBLEM with premade teams being in the solo queue. All I would like to see is that they are balanced fairly in each group.

A step in the right direction would be at least showing us on the team roster screen which players are in a premade group. This would answer quite quickly if 'Premades' are loaded evenly. Better yet, actually sorting out Comms as native would make casual players be better able to knit. Give it an off switch and all our TS people don't get upset.
the problem is as I am demonstrating with My W/L, not all Premades are created equal. Players like Thirdstar could be on the side with a less experienced 4man and thus rolled just like if they were 8 PUGs. But still blame the fact they fought against a 4man. I lose to 4 mans and I lose to the 8 man teams that sinc drop in the Que. I don't complain cause I know I just can't win 'em all.

#151 Yokaiko

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:46 AM

Won that one, everyone stayed relatively tight, no silly deaths to snipers or missiles and smashed a tunnel rush.

#152 Ken Fury

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:53 AM

My L/P Ratio is 1.51 and I always do that solo! I think the gravest fault of the OP is ignoring the L/P Ratio, this is a flaw in this otherwise excellent study.

#153 PainGod30

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:54 AM

View PostThirdstar, on 23 January 2013 - 08:25 PM, said:


You clearly have no idea how to read charts either.22 of your 31 samples are AT or BELOW the 1 line. How then is the average W/L magically 1:1?

Protip: Don't start with a biased hypothesis.

Clustering sounds like a weasel word here. Why don't you just say the majority of the sample was below 1:1 W/L, you'd at least be accurate.


His hypothesis isn't biased sir. He simply stated the Null hypothesis of that there is no difference. In statistics you assume that there is no difference between the two populations until you can "prove" otherwise. (Note: I'm a Research Psychologist during my off hours of MW:O lol) I am kinda curious though about what the Variance was and whether or not the OP ran a t-test to see if the results for pugs were significantly different. It kinda looks like he just compared the means which is a poor way to draw a conclusion.

#154 Thirdstar

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:58 AM

View PostPainGod30, on 24 January 2013 - 06:54 AM, said:

His hypothesis isn't biased sir. He simply stated the Null hypothesis of that there is no difference. In statistics you assume that there is no difference between the two populations until you can "prove" otherwise. (Note: I'm a Research Psychologist during my off hours of MW:O lol) I am kinda curious though about what the Variance was and whether or not the OP ran a t-test to see if the results for pugs were significantly different. It kinda looks like he just compared the means which is a poor way to draw a conclusion.


This hypothesis.

"You often see pugs on these forums cry foul of premades. They claim that premades ruin the game, and that pugs are constantly being wiped off the map, round after round. Eventually, after hearing the anti-premade mantra over and over again, I thought to myself "is this really the case?" Surely, if it were true that pugs were systematically losing matches, that would suggest a deeply flawed matchmaker that was systematically pitting pugs against premades more than against other pugs."

I just realized that he never even addressed the second part of this 'hypothesis', mostly because that's impossible without metrics from PGI.

Edited by Thirdstar, 24 January 2013 - 07:00 AM.


#155 Yokaiko

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 07:01 AM

Won one lost one.

Loss as a spread I was busy de-scouting so I missed what happened in the brawl 6-8 loss I was 4th overall. I'll live.

Win was was a straight assualt heavy bull rush and we outshot them.

Which brings me to 50/50 with a 12 kills and 5 deaths on the morning. Solo puggy style.

Edited by Yokaiko, 24 January 2013 - 07:01 AM.


#156 Joseph Mallan

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 07:02 AM

View PostTank Boy Ken, on 24 January 2013 - 06:53 AM, said:

My L/P Ratio is 1.51 and I always do that solo! I think the gravest fault of the OP is ignoring the L/P Ratio, this is a flaw in this otherwise excellent study.

L/P?
Also... does Barbie Know you drop without her? :) B) :lol:

#157 Serapth

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 07:04 AM

View PostFlapdrol, on 24 January 2013 - 06:18 AM, said:

If I drop in a 4 group we almost always win. If I drop as a pug it depends on what time it is. During european afternoon there wont really be groups on so pugging is very viable, at primetime you'll lose more often than not. That's my experience (~2000 games played)


This, exactly this.

I dont premade, it's easy mode. My win rate was easily 90%+. Im an ok, but not exceptional player.

I play during the day ( EST ) and the game is a lot of fun pugging. Lots of split even matches, fun had by all.

During the night ( 5PM EST on, worse as the time goes on, peaking around midnight ) the game becomes horrible... I would say at least 2/3rds of matchs end 8/0 or at best 8/2.

Every single day. Correlate with the population numbers of teamspeak and you will see a similar spike in population size.

#158 PainGod30

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 07:04 AM

View PostThirdstar, on 24 January 2013 - 06:58 AM, said:


This hypothesis.

"You often see pugs on these forums cry foul of premades. They claim that premades ruin the game, and that pugs are constantly being wiped off the map, round after round. Eventually, after hearing the anti-premade mantra over and over again, I thought to myself "is this really the case?" Surely, if it were true that pugs were systematically losing matches, that would suggest a deeply flawed matchmaker that was systematically pitting pugs against premades more than against other pugs."

I just realized that he never even addressed the second part of this 'hypothesis', mostly because that's impossible without metrics from PGI.


I'm not sure what you're talking about. He clearly stated his hypothesis as "I went into this with the hypothesis that the win/loss ratio of pugs would cluster at around 1:1 indicating that they are, on average, giving as good as they get." It's clearly under his section titled Hypothesis. What you're talking about is an extrapolation that he made assuming that he is able to reject the null hypothesis of the pugs are close to 1:1 in win loss records as premade teams.

Edited by PainGod30, 24 January 2013 - 07:07 AM.


#159 Yokaiko

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 07:06 AM

View PostJoseph Mallan, on 24 January 2013 - 07:02 AM, said:

L/P?
Also... does Barbie Know you drop without her? :) B) :lol:



Pretty sure Tank Girl Barbie knows all about him, I always see them running together.

#160 John Norad

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 07:07 AM

View PostBhael Fire, on 23 January 2013 - 09:02 PM, said:

Premades should never be matched against PUGs. EVER.

This.
I don't understand how people can even begin to think about a serious discussion on that topic. There really isn't more to say about it. Just separate them. Or at the very least have the exact same number of premades on both sides.





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