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Is It Worth Opening A Supply Cache? Let's Calculate.


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#21 C E Dwyer

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 10:57 AM

View Postbanana peel, on 21 July 2016 - 09:02 AM, said:

First thing first. It would be easier for PGI to just display the chances of drops inside the supply cache itself. Ah, well... But we can do some work ourselves, we're kinda used to it)
I think, it will help players to decide whether or not they want to spend their MCs.

What i suggest is we post for each our cache its possible contents and the actual result of the roll. Maybe up to 5 caches in one post to keep the topic as short as possible. Make screenshots if you can and use spoilers.
Once you are agreed to participate, it is vital to post results of EVERY cache you open. Selectivity, such as "gosh, finally i've won a mech! i'll go and share it with the community, but not my other 20 c-bill prizes", will ruin the whole thing)
Oh and another thing... If anyone wants to intentionally spoil results in favor or against the caches, i guess, not much we can do about it. I rely on your honesty, mechwarrior!)

I am yet to figure out how to handle such statistics and give an objective and easy to percieve result. The main thing is to collect a representative number of opened caches, rest is technical. But trust me on this, i'm a mathematician)

p.s. if you just sell caches, you can at least post it's possible contents. this data will help to estimate the value of supply cache keys.

I can't help, as I won't be buying keys, so P.G.I won't be getting money out of me this way.

It is however extremely likely that my Cyclops pre-order, will get cancelled, if the damn disco ball isn't removed from the centre of my screen after each match pronto ,so lets hope there are enough fools to cover that lost revenue at least.

Or maybe not

#22 banana peel

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 11:37 AM

Guys, please read the first message before responding. My intention was not to discuss the disgraceful PGI that lures users into cruel mechvegas. I just simply want to collect as much data as possible from those who do open this crates or at least checks them. And present some results.

From my part i'm ready to open at least 10 of caches and come up with some sort of valuating scheme.

#23 A Man In A Can

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 11:45 AM

View Postbanana peel, on 21 July 2016 - 11:37 AM, said:

I just simply want to collect as much data as possible from those who do open this crates or at least checks them. And present some results.

From my part i'm ready to open at least 10 of caches and come up with some sort of valuating scheme.

I'll give you a benchmark of 5000k c-bills/MC to beat for all crates that you attempt. Then find the percentage of crates that fall above/below that value for the lowest sale price item offered.

#24 cazidin

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 11:48 AM

View PostBishop Steiner, on 21 July 2016 - 10:49 AM, said:

I think we need a "Key Sales Leaderboard" to track how well embraced this begged for "feature" truly is.


Who, uh... who begged for this, exactly? Who even WANTED this?

#25 Bishop Steiner

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 11:53 AM

View Postcazidin, on 21 July 2016 - 11:48 AM, said:


Who, uh... who begged for this, exactly? Who even WANTED this?

tis kind of the point, ya know?

#26 cazidin

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 11:55 AM

View PostBishop Steiner, on 21 July 2016 - 11:53 AM, said:

tis kind of the point, ya know?


...And yet, I know there is one guy out there. I don't know who, or if they're even a guy, who at some point in time asked PGI to implement a cache system similar to CS:GO only worse and this message somehow got to Russ. I imagine a convoluted chained of events lead to this but sadly hilarity did not ensue.

#27 Felicitatem Parco

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 12:02 PM

Let's set some parameters first:

Do you have much free time to generate cBills?
Do you lack free time and use MC or Cash to buy Mechs?

The people who play all the time and are swimming in Cbills might need to stop pushing their "never use cash for stuff you can get for C-Bills" agenda on people who have jobs, families, etc.

Using keys to convert MC to C-Bills (by selling the contents of caches) is the most efficient conversion available. Don't lie about it, and don't omit that fact from your arguments.

Edited by Prosperity Park, 21 July 2016 - 12:04 PM.


#28 Aresye

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 12:03 PM

They should have camo pattern unlocks, and perhaps some rare camo patterns that you can only get by opening caches, with a fully fledged trading system along with a shady loophole that allows players to cash out their rare skins for IRL money.

I want my illegal MWO skin-gambling operations dammit!

#29 Danghen Woolf

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 01:08 PM

Tina already stated in another thread that they have no intent to release the numbers.

http://mwomercs.com/...girusstinaalex/

I would be willing to provide information on contents but i do not plan on opening any yet.

#30 Boulangerie

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 02:44 PM

Well, we should be able to collect some data, since anyone who can rack up 2500 total match score in the cumulative challenge for this event will get a free key.

Whether you decide to use it or not is, of course, up to you. At least we can get one unbox per user this way and come up with a small amount of data.

#31 banana peel

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 03:11 PM

Ok guys, i'll try to make it clear now)

I DO NOT demand any advices on the way to handle statistics.

I PROMISE to do it myself, if i have enough data. "Enough" starts somewhere at 300 total runs, i guess.

And i will appreciate if you keep discussions in a separate thread, there are plenty on this topic. Let's leave this thread for the data.

#32 Green Mamba

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 03:16 PM

It was an MC Sink ... working as intended

#33 Druarc

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 03:17 PM

Unless there's a few really good items I'll be selling all the ones I get. Keep the good ones for free MC or free keys.

#34 justcallme A S H

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 03:30 PM

View PostScrapIron Prime, on 21 July 2016 - 10:25 AM, said:

I have enough mech bays, so I won't be spending the free MC I get from events on them. So yeah, I'll open a cache here and there with the free MC I was given, but only if it contains premium time, a mech, or something worth many MC. Everything else I'll sell, as I have no need to convert MC to cBills, which is the result of most drops.

I've opened one already, as it had both a Highlander IIC and a 5000 MC prize in it. I got an ERPPC. 300,000 cBills is fair for 25 MC, but I wouldn't have tried if not for the mech.



Problem for most people is that:

1. 300k cbills is 2 QP matches at best.
2. 80MC-150MC is usually 3-5 QP matches in any given challenge/lootbag/event etc.

So the MC spend is an absolutely backwards way of generating cbills and you're better off with mechbay's for the MC

But as you said, if you have enough mechays then it doesn't really matter as much.


View PostCathy, on 21 July 2016 - 10:52 AM, said:

Who 'begged' for it

Can't have been the silent majority for obvious reasons.


Well some of the more, uneducated. Were asking for supply caches on the battlefield because they were running out of ammo. Which is an a absolute game breaker - thinking about it, funny it didn't get made that way.

So not a supply cache that costs you MC to open after the game based on a random chance with as good odds as a casino/pokie machine. It's a gamblers paradise and plays on that human weakness really.

Sad are supply caches and they should not be opened.

Edited by R31Nismoid, 22 July 2016 - 04:11 PM.


#35 Angel of Annihilation

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 03:37 PM

View PostMazzyplz, on 21 July 2016 - 10:28 AM, said:

would it help if the chances were even among the prizes ?

the keys would have to be made more expensive though


No they wouldn't. First you have to consider that only what 1 out of 24 even get a supply cache so what would it hurt if people won a single mech every once in a while?

Seriously one of the biggest reasons I hardly ever play anymore is because we have well over 400 mechs in the game and at less than 200k earned per match, it take roughly 50 matches to buy and outfit a single chassis. I just don't have time for that kind of bull **** and after spending something like $600 on the game since it came out, I am mostly tapped out on money that I can justify spending on it.

Point is, someone winning a mech or 5 wouldn't put a dent in the overall grind but really would give alot of people the incentive to try and keep trying.

Honestly what I would have done is hide the contents but make it so things like mechs drop pretty frequent, maybe 1 in 30 boxes or something, Those odds would likely get people really pumped to spend their MC on it and honestly, those mechs cost PGI nothing and lets be honest here, the vast majority of people will just grind the C-bills for the older mechs they want to buy anyway so it isn't like they would even be losing cash sales from it.

Edited by Viktor Drake, 21 July 2016 - 03:38 PM.


#36 Redwo1f

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 09:20 PM

damn, i am not going to complain. It is a free 50K c-bills if you don't want it...and you can look inside them and choose to spend the mc or not (or use a key if you already have one for it). Gosh, just got my first two...and both are definitely worth 25 mc so far (maybe i got really lucky???)...but first had a summoner (which I wanted anyway), a mech bay, a hill climb module, and an XL engine as highlights. The other had a mechbay, speed retention module, 1 day premium time (and some crap). So no complaints here. Posted Image I think its worth probably buying both with my freely won mc. Didn't cost me a dime in real money (but the opportunity cost is losing 50 mc used for paint or paint scheme).

Edit, i am an idiot and didn't realize that you had to spin...so ughhh...my bad. LOL. Got the XL engine. But hey, didn't cost me a penny tho.

Edited by Redwo1f, 21 July 2016 - 09:26 PM.


#37 feeWAIVER

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 09:39 PM

Clan LBX-10
LRM15
Clan Gauss Rifle


Gross.



If you can win a mech bay every 10 keys, then it's absolutely worth it.

Edited by feeWAIVER, 21 July 2016 - 09:40 PM.


#38 CycKath

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 10:30 PM

Four crates opened so far, two earned and two from the Viper challenge - 250k C-bills, 100k C-bills, Clan ECM and AMS ;/

I think I'm done.

Edited by CycKath, 22 July 2016 - 02:32 AM.


#39 El Bandito

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 10:46 PM

This event is a good opportunity, as we get free cache and key.

#40 Revis Volek

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Posted 21 July 2016 - 11:04 PM

View PostEl Bandito, on 21 July 2016 - 10:46 PM, said:

This event is a good opportunity, as we get free cache and key.



Managed to get a 280 XL out of mine with the free key. Sold the other two i have gotten so far since the best thing seemed like Hula Girls or 5,000 GXP...not sure which is "Suppose" to be better.





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