344 replies to this topic

[Eisenhorne]

RickySpanish, on 18 October 2018 - 07:04 AM, said:

Elo hell does not exist, or if it does, then it exists at all levels of play. Put another way, there is no level of play at which one does not accuse one's team mates of throwing a game.

That's because everything my teammates do is wrong and everything I do is right. Now excuse me as I lurm in my Fafnir in quick play.

[BumbaCLot]

HARDKOR, on 17 October 2018 - 02:03 PM, said:

Can confirm... I hover around 1 no matter if im playing terribly or playing well.I would assume that if someone has a high ratio, it's because they only drop with their comp group, because the matchmaker will always even you out.

Yet there are some here who average .75 WLR and have higher match scores than me.
What does that say? Maybe they run LRM boats and get higher match score due to high damage matches, but LRM boats aren't going to win matches alone.

[BumbaCLot]

MrXanthios, on 17 October 2018 - 12:56 PM, said:

I wouldn't be surprised if premium players' mm is actually rigged. And I wouldn't be surprised if mm was also rigged for some streamers, especially one.

Ha! Most of the top players don't even buy mech packs which give premium, although we know PGI gives free mechpacks to a lot of their guys. Streamers probably are gifted mechpacks by subs so they can see them in action.
But the best guys in my unit have a billion CBills and basically use event and planetary gains MC to buy their new unreleased mechs. Conspiracy!

[BumbaCLot]

Tarl Cabot, on 17 October 2018 - 03:10 PM, said:

That is to be expected, up to a point. The times where in SQ of having a higher W/L rate if the player enhances the team's gameplay like a Bard and said member provides tactics and the team follows. This is then enhanced even more when the team is made up of like minded individuals who are more used to playing as a team and taking directions, ie faction play and group queue, than the other tryhards/rambos who may treat everyone else as if they were NPC with no control.

That can NOT be measured by the MM. And the PSR that is used, ie is more of a Player Experience Rating than Player Skill Rating. Everyone may reach different plateaus with how they perform, individually, but that performance can be enhanced in a group controlled setting but with many SQ drops there is no real control.

So any research done will show that majority of the time the side with the better stats, be it a T1 or T2 or T3 drop, will generally win because the MM is only using Tier designation, matching weight class to weight class, then opening up when appropriate tier is not available.

Did anyone really expect anything different to happen? Elo worked in similar fashion. Seeded with a player then picked people up around his Elo number, above and below, but stricter on the weight classes. The difference between Elo and PSR? Elo did not have a static threshold to be reached. If the team designed to be better team won and the team designed to lose lost, Elo changed little, dependent on the score difference. But if the team designed the underdog actually won, the scores earned were greater, again dependent on the score difference.

That is my view on it. Like my main -T1 vs alt- T3 (w/120 SQ games over a few seasons) W/L is 1.1 vs 1.5, avg 245 MS vs 320 MS. And Alt used freebies/trial mechs at first - Wolverine 6k, Battlemaster 3ERLL/3ERML w/SHS-lots!!. , Enforcer and Centurion (freebies). Hmm, Wolfhound and Roughneck (free one) and Warhammer 6R. Beside those stats, on the Jarl's list my alt is ranked lots higher than my main. hai.. like a wolf half-breed in amongst the sheep/goats.. never knowing what ya going to get...

Again, each of us hits a plateau, individually, dependent on who we are facing but if that plateau is at or slightly exceeds the PSR static threshold, eventually most of us will be Tier 1, a WIDE range of players. Should MM use additional stats or different stats other than PSR? Just remember, that Match Score is not simply what you do on the battlefield, but it is also a reflection of what you do in the mechlab too. There are so many variables...

Frak it.. beer run!!!!

hehe you know how easy it is to win in a trial assault or heavy in T4/5 vs those with 1 mouse sensitivity and no idea what the maps are.
I started an alt this weekend for Solaris and my first game did 950 in a trial direwolf on polar. I drop called "to i9" and tried to herd those who spread out too much.
I definitely impacted that match.

[Xiphias]

HARDKOR, on 17 October 2018 - 02:03 PM, said:

Can confirm... I hover around 1 no matter if im playing terribly or playing well.I would assume that if someone has a high ratio, it's because they only drop with their comp group, because the matchmaker will always even you out.

I've played pure solo seasons with ~100 matches or more and averaged WRLs of > 2.0 and even one season with >3.0. A good player can easily maintain a WLR that is significantly greater than 1.0 while only playing solo.

[MischiefSC]

N0MAD, on 17 October 2018 - 07:00 PM, said:

Not so, most people who win constantly in group q win because generally they will play only group q with a team usually vs a pug team, there are a couple teams that will win constantly vs other organised teams but generally the people that only play with an organised group vs pug groups are stat padding.

Except that only groups play in group queue. There is no 'group vs pug' environment. In fact winning in group queue is usually about playing with 5-7 players as more than that the tonnage difference is crippling. You'll win less in a 12man in group queue than you will a 6man.

No, the people who win constantly in group queue are the ones who are good players and play in a small to mid sized group.

[BumbaCLot]

MischiefSC, on 18 October 2018 - 10:30 AM, said:

Except that only groups play in group queue. There is no 'group vs pug' environment. In fact winning in group queue is usually about playing with 5-7 players as more than that the tonnage difference is crippling. You'll win less in a 12man in group queue than you will a 6man.

No, the people who win constantly in group queue are the ones who are good players and play in a small to mid sized group.

Yep the 12 Man group can only take crabs pretty much or novas etc if they are doing rushes and aiming at legs. You can drop 200 tons as a 2 man and 600 tons in a 12. World of difference.

[Foxwalker]

I experience this when I switch between my account Tier 1 and my wife's account Tier 4. See a lot of the same players either way. Why my wife will not play much, being pitted against much higher skilled players.

[Snowhawk]

Recently I had some looses and I made a screenshoot of the 6th match. I was Pretty shoked what I found. I looked into the jarl's list and saw that the opposing Team had 7 Players with a high 90% ranking. The 4 best Players in my Team had a 80% ranking….
The Question is now is the matchmaker really that bugged or was this really coincidence?? (and by the way I have another example...)
From my Point of view fixing the matchmaker has priority because it will give the players a better game experience.

[RickySpanish]

Eisenhorne, on 18 October 2018 - 09:32 AM, said:

That's because everything my teammates do is wrong and everything I do is right. Now excuse me as I lurm in my Fafnir in quick play.

I just purchased one at last. I'm going to put LRMs on one side and Gauss on the other just to *really* confuse people.

[Eisenhorne]

RickySpanish, on 19 October 2018 - 03:41 AM, said:

I just purchased one at last. I'm going to put LRMs on one side and Gauss on the other just to *really* confuse people.

I actually took my LRM Fafnir to Solaris 7 last night. It's currently 1-1. It's not bad against Annihilators.

[Grus]

drunkblackstar, on 19 April 2017 - 09:06 AM, said:

Since the very beginning of MWO there has been an ongoing discussion about the matchmaker. Is it good or bad, is it balanced or biased, does it assemble equal or unequal teams?

Not long ago the players data became public via Leaderboard. It means that now we can examine how matchmaker really works - all we need to do is to compare the teams comparison and the players performance available in Leaderboard.

I made such an attempt and want to share results and my conclusions.

The method of the study.

1) I made the screenshots with the results of the game in the end of the match

2) Using Leaderboard I checked stats of every player who participated in the match (the stats of the current gaming season)

3) Then I calculated the average kill/death ratio, win/loss ratio and average matchscrore (MS) for the players of the victorious and defeated teams (of course, it was based not on the performance in this match, but in the whole season).

The scope of the study

I've analyzed 12 matches played in solo queue during 18-19 April, 2017.

The results

The study showed that in the overwhelming majority of cases the victorious team had an initial advantage. It consisted of players who had higher W\L, K\D and average MS. The opposing team had lower average W\L, K\D and MS.

In 6 matches the players of the team that gained victory had higher W\L, K\D and MS.
In 5 matches the players of the team that gained victory had higher performance among 2 of 3 stats (e.g. they had higher W\L and MS, but their K\D was lower).
In only 1 match the winners had lower average W\L, K\D and MS then the defeated team.



The conclusions

I've reinforced my impression that the outcome of the match is determined by the matchmaker. In fact matchmaker doesn't assemble the equal teams. It makes teams to be unequal. The one team is determined to win, the other - to lose.

Among 12 analyzed matches there was only one exception to this rule. In 90% of the matches the result could be easily predicted after examining of the players stats from Leaderboard.

The question is why matchmaker is programmed that way. Nobody expects the teams to be equal 100%. But the differences between the teams is sometimes striking.

For example in the match №1 the winners average K\D was 1.6, the losers - 0.92. W\L - 1.3 and 1.06, MS - 260 and 208 respectively.

In the match №2 the winners average K\D was 1.31, the losers - 0.91. W\L - 1.29 and 1.01, MS - 238 and 198 respectively.

This difference is really huge. Those 24 people could be mixed the other way to smooth it out, but instead matchmaker formed one "strong" and one "weak" team.

We can imagine some fantastic machine (that could be build by someone with programming skills) that can predict the result of the battle in the beginning of the match. The person takes screenshot of the participants, then this screenshot is scanned, the program redirects the names to the Leaderboard, calculates team's performance and give the result. In 90% (if not more) it would be correct.

I understand that 12 matches is not enough to make really representative sample and come to the firm conclusions. But I believe it shows the trend. I encourage other players, who want to spend time and effort, to make their own examine of the matchmaker.

The data that I used can be found here:
https://docs.google....xejU/edit#gid=0

P.S. Found out that Tarogato with the help of his teammates made resembling study. He used over 100 matches data and his results were quite similar.
Tarogato's study is here:
https://mwomercs.com...is-of-the-12-0/

you sciened the crap out of this... and i love it

Just proving what we all know. Ty.

[RickySpanish]

Grus, on 19 October 2018 - 08:07 AM, said:

you sciened the crap out of this... and i love it

Just proving what we all know. Ty.

Then how come my w/l ratio is 1.9 after 58 games played this season? Match maker must have singled me out as That Guy who always gets onto the "good team".

Edited by RickySpanish, 19 October 2018 - 08:57 AM.

[Grus]

RickySpanish, on 19 October 2018 - 08:57 AM, said:

Then how come my w/l ratio is 1.9 after 58 games played this season? Match maker must have singled me out as That Guy who always gets onto the "good team".

Season 27 you played 40 games at 1.5 wlr

Overall you are at a 1.38 ( not bad. ) every one has a good run now and then. But sample size counts. I would really like to see the same thing done with 100 games played.

[panzer1b]

i agree with the OP, the MM just doesnt create fair and quality games, mostly super stacked potato farms like 75% of the time. Its very rare these days to see anything closer then 12-6, mostly 12-2 or 12-3 where half those kills if not all of them were purely my doing...

While this may not be a super popular opinion, i strongly suggest both putting ALL tiers in teh same bracket (population is so low nowadays that i see the same people every other game), and making MM purely at random. Yes this CAN result in stomps, but statistically speaking if there are no groups to tip the scale, you should get far less one sided games then there are now (75% currently are 1 sided like crazy) and it would also give skilled players more potential to carry late game and still let weaker ones do their share of damage aslong as they stick to the team and dont run off solo kamikaze in their 1 flamer lolcust.

Im really hoping this game survives because i like it ALOT more then other vehicle combat games like WoT or WT mostly due to less RNG and it comes down to skill moreso then luck of the draw (always hated perfectly lined up shots in tank games that miss where im shooting cause RNG said so). I also would love to see faction play get some attention since that is what ive always seen as teh true core of MWO, let solaris die off (its been dead since day 1, people tried it, and all but a handful actually play it continuously), and focus on FP and also make the MM either purely random for QP, or make it base its teams off of real stats like WLR or match score. Yeah there are ways to game the stats, but in general someone with a higher WLR, matchscore, and KDR will have a decisive advantage against a potato even if the potato has a superior build (which like never happens cause few potatos know how to make optimized mechs).

[Tarl Cabot]

Grus, on 19 October 2018 - 08:07 AM, said:

you sciened the crap out of this... and i love it

Just proving what we all know. Ty.

That was not scienced out. ONe should never take the averages of averages. Totals of the actual numbers then get the averages. And solo vs group stats are combined. For those who tend to group more often or tend to have more of that group mentality and know how to use the mechlab... whatever..... I went over that in an early post. Again though, should never take the average of an average. W/L, K/D, MS, averages of averages. And from the looks of it, it was only for a partial of the month of April 2007 (he did notate that).

Sum W /Sum L = group avg W/L, Sum K / Sum D =group avg K/D, (Games played * MS ) / (Sum Games played) = group avg MS

Only did a few for now.

Game 1-2 - no change in which side had better stats but the averages were lower.
Game 3 - Winning team had better stats 2 out of 3 instead of all 3
Game 7 - Losing team had better stats 2 out of 3, just barely, instead of 1 out of 3.
Game 8 - Losing team had better stats overall, just barely, instead of 1 out of 3

What we do not know if PGI changed up how teams are selected from Elo setup. Seeded player than back and forth for each team, Tier and weight class.

Edited by Tarl Cabot, 19 October 2018 - 06:04 PM.

[RickySpanish]

Grus, on 19 October 2018 - 03:21 PM, said:

Season 27 you played 40 games at 1.5 wlr

Overall you are at a 1.38 ( not bad. ) every one has a good run now and then. But sample size counts. I would really like to see the same thing done with 100 games played.

Something I like to do is after a match, try to figure out the moment where it was won or lost. Surprisingly, I've become quite good at that, and it's not usually some great mystery nor is it (often) a huge gap in player skill among the team. I try to not repeat the mistakes I know are mine (almost always being caught out of position) and I try to minimize the likelihood of someone else on my team being put in a situation where they die without cause. I also try to talk to my team mates even though I detest leadership, so instead I greet players and call out enemies on comms. If we lose, I don't cuss out our team either and if it's particularly bad I do attempt to talk to whoever hasn't disconnected. I dunno how much of that is hokum but my overall feeling is that a positive attitude and reflection at the end of a match have helped keep my w/l ratio comfortably above 1, even though I quite often jump into daft 'Mechs like disco laser Black Knight or ECM Fun Spider (3 UAC 5, 1 ER PPC).

[mad kat]

I don't need a table to tell me that the matchmaker is rigged.

Being dropped with complete morons match after match is all I need to tell me that the game is biased.

[InvictusLee]

Id say that I win about... 75% of the matches im in simply by being more aggressive than the other team.
I usually hunt solo, wait for stragglers or suicidal lights to show up, pick them off and bam suddenly the team wants to push.
Usually works out for me, but there are still times when I'll get steamrolled by a team thats running 100% large laservom or a pack of mediums. *shrugs*

In my experince, I havent seen match maker pair me up with a team that is destined to win or lose. Its all about which side gets the first 3 kills and which keeps up the pressure long enough to swing another 3 kills so that the cowards in the rear can push forward and help us win the match. I swear nothing pisses me off more when I see a light mech on my team sittimg BEHIND the assaultmechs.

Edited by November11th, 31 October 2018 - 04:56 PM.

[LowSubmarino]

Mwo is unfair by default, as at least one pilot crashes and you or team red is down one mech. Since that happens in basically every match, you cant really have balanced matches even if you leave skill out of the equation.

As such, mwo is unfair by default since pgi stoically ignores how unstable mwo runs. Has been ignroring that ever since it was released. It was unstable in closed beta, in open beta and it is still unstable now.

Honesty, if even one single member of this community buys mw5 and then comes to the mw5 forum and complains that the game is unstable and/or crashes then I will mock you. Ill literally mock you because it is your own fault.

Look at mwo.

That is what you will get in mw5 as well.

Itll crash all the time and they wont ever fix it.