Anomalocaris, on 17 May 2020 - 03:11 PM, said:
Go check steamcharts. You can only look at hourly data for the last month, so the last event weekend is already off the charts. I did archive the data though for my own purposes at the end of this test.
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[color=#222222]But what you can see is that we saw a jump in players the first weekend this went into effect. They went up even further the next weekend. This weekend they're actually slightly below the first merge weekend both in peaks and averages. In fact, some player numbers this weekend have been below the last pre-merge event weekend which was 4/17-4/18. The event juicing can only help so much, and people are probably starting to get a feel for the ups and downs of the merge. If we continue to see a drop during this week it won't be a good sign, but its too early to tell at this point. Not that I think PGI will change direction. They're going to point to any player increase as a sign of success, even though avg. player numbers per month have been increasing at a steady rate starting in March. The trend for May looks right in line with the gains in March and April, suggesting that the merge didn't really do anything for participation.[/color]
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I've been following steamcharts as well, but the problem with steam numbers that has plagued us forever is that we have never been given clear numbers as to how many people play through steam vs how many play through the PGI client. We've tried to use these numbers in the past for various arguments and the response from PGI has always been something along the lines of "not many people play through steam, we know that there are lots more playing through the PGI client, but we're not actually ever going to tell you how many there are". Sure we could easily argue that steam numbers are representative of the overall trend, but that always gets pushback and/or ignored.
Another interesting takeaway from the numbers is that the month-on-month increases are actually decreasing... 21.74% in March, 18.74% in April, and though we're only halfway through May, the bump from incoming for the test appears to have already passed and the current average increase is only 15.41%. If the number holds, a reasonable person would see that the merge did literally nothing to attract higher numbers beyond the background increases that were going on. The problem, unfortunately, is that PGI are not reasonable people, so they'll find some way to read these numbers that backs their position no matter the cost.
Ultimately, I agree with you, even if the numbers are objectively bad, they won't change course. Russ has made it pretty clear in his tweets that this is essentially the only viable option in their minds (never mind the possibility of just not having a group queue, or maybe having the group queue just be 4v4), so we now have the soup queue and if we don't like it, I guess we can go kick rocks... Honestly, right now I'm actually racking my brain trying to find even a single time in the last 8 years that I've seen anyone at PGI accept responsibility for a bad decision and realize that reversing course was the better option. I don't actually think its ever happened, instead when things go wrong, they turtle and then eventually double-down on their position or changes...