849 replies to this topic

[Tarl Cabot]

Horseman, on 31 May 2020 - 12:48 AM, said:

Except that won't work. About 60% of the game's population is in T1 and due to that bloat they would make it substantially easier for poor players to still remain in T1.

The tiers are a product of your PSR, and PGI's matchmaker builds teams by PSR (and used to have a restriction to prevent T5s from dropping with T2+ players and T4s with T1 players).

Since the current PSR calculation is trash and allows even very bad players to grind their way to the "top" rating by sheer volume of matches, any attempt to use it for matchmaking fails by default - it won't be able to tell apart someone who like myself is usually in the 80s with a top one-percenter or someone who's below the 50% mark, because we've all reached the maximum PSR value a long time ago - the only difference is in how long it took.

The hope is that with the PSR reset and a less generous PSR formula, the matchmaker will be able to do its' job better than it is now. We're not expecting miracles, just something that's more viable than the shitshow we have to deal with now.

Slight correctly.. Tier movement is generated by where a player falls on the PSR ladder, win/loss. THE MM builds teams off the player's Tier. As long as the MM, group or solo, uses Tier as part of its calculation in its current setting, even with a reset, nothing will change.

Everything else, yeapers.

And for others.. recall when PGI seeded Tiers when it was changed over from Elo...? Not sure of the actual proportions but I was seeded at 3.75 Tier (approx 25% from Tier 2) it took me approximately 1500 games to make Tier 1.

Here is a funny twiiter items from Russ, and PGI still didnt change anything...

Raubwurst, on 13 January 2017 - 04:05 PM, said:

https://mwomercs.com...-tiers-and-psr/

Some of Paul's thoughts back in Sept 2015.. but then PGI has not made any changes to the PSR setup. Except with the current PSR thresolds, ESPECIALLY on a Win (see no issue with Loss thresholds) PGI has set the plateua very, very low... Again... avg 171 MS with 0.82 R/L ratio bouncing in/out of Tier 2 and Tier 1....And this is after playing 25K+ games (unsure of when said player actually hit Tier 1 the first time.)

Clarification 2: The more games you play the higher Tier you're going to get.

That's partly true. The more games you play, the better you should become. The better you become, the higher your match scores will be. But you will plateau somewhere. Our top players have hit the PSR point ceiling. Even at that level their PSR values bounce up and down off the ceiling. They may go down 1 point on a loss but spring back up on their next victory.

Edited by Tarl Cabot, 31 May 2020 - 10:21 AM.

[pupujuku]

what is PSR?

[Zephrym]

I dip my paddle into the brown sea for the hundredth time, as I'm drawn by Russ's quote above about the rarity of tier 2 and 3 players.

I'm a reasonably intelligent chap but there are statisticians and analysts within this forum that far surpass my skill that can expand on my observation.

By limiting the tier 2 and 3 players (essentially placing your finger at the top (or right of centre in this case) of a bell curve and pushing gently downwards) it would appear that you are creating two separate player bases. Between these two bases is a no-mans land of 'git-gud' or 'git-back-down'.

This immediately strikes me as quite clever and an inventive way to view the structure of the player base. However the chap at the allotment gave me some homemade apple wine today and I claim no responsibility for my actions or meandering thoughts. His name is Jeff and I blame him.

Z

[Khalcruth]

What's the worst that could happen? Maybe it can do for quickplay what the Long Tom did for Faction play.

[Anomalocaris]

DAEDALOS513, on 31 May 2020 - 09:03 AM, said:

You can speculate all you want.. doesn't mean much. Steam charts have been trending up the last three months (that's what the green numbers mean below the chart).
https://steamcharts.com/app/342200#3m

I already shot your event theory down when I showed that event frequency has not increased and is following a steady pattern all the way back to January averaging 2 or 3 events per 30 day period.

You're just grasping at straws because by now you must be realizing this change has been a net positive for the game..

You shot down nothing. In fact, you pleaded "bad memory" when I brought out the actual event dates - 3 events in 3 weeks. Is this another case of your "bad memory" too?

If the facts were on your side you probably wouldn't keep reporting my posts to the mods either....

I do find it rather funny (in a "oh look at that guy shoot himself in the foot" sort of way) that you consider a 3 month trend of increasing playerbase a sign that the 1 month merge queue test was a success for the game. As if that trend wouldn't have continued anyway without it? Watch what happens as we come off lockdown. Don't worry about your memory, I'll remind you later.

[Anomalocaris]

Saturday April 18th - 712 peak players (last pre-merge event weekend)
April 25th - 665 peak players (no event)
May 2 - 812 peak players (merge + double xp event)
May 9 - 870 (g'day mate event)
May 16 - 754 (not sure if g'day event was still active)
May 23 - 833 (holiday weekend in US and UK + 7 sins event)
May 30 - 750 (7 sins event still active but pretty much over for most people I'm guessing, call it no event if you like)

So what I'm pointing out is that yesterday we were only up 5% over the last pre-merge event Saturday. Player numbers were trending up anyways during lockdown as evidenced by the 2 months prior to merge. And now we're about to start seeing most of the US exiting lockdowns and getting back to work over the next few weeks. Naturally there will be some unfortunate folks who don't have a job to go back to, but most people will have a lot less time to play MWO. Time will tell. But I'd be very wary about pointing to player numbers as a sign of the merge success. There are a lot of confounding variables to trip you up, the biggest being the Wuhan coronavirus impact.

[Rkshz]

MrMadguy, on 30 May 2020 - 08:32 PM, said:

Again. Many players, who think, that they're pros in this game, would be disappointed by truly working MM. Why? Simple math. If we would have perfect balance, every player would kill one 'Mech per game on average. It takes around 100-150DMG to kill one 'Mech (Lights take the same, it just doesn't register). So, on average every player would earn 200-250MS. See? This amount of MS is chosen as neutral level for REASON. And it's true for EVERY Tier. Not your 400+ for Tier 1. If you earn more, then you play BELOW your real MM rating. Nothing comes for free. Real reason, why some players earn 500MS in every match - they play with/against players, who can't earn even 100MS. They play at expense of others. And this fact isn't compensated for that players. That's why there is no reason to play this game, if you aren't pro.

Yeah. We don't have enough players. So, let's say, 1% top players need to be mixed with others in order for their queues not to last for too long. But... If we have just 1% top players and 70% "average" players, then why almost every match is terrible due to pros in it for that average players? May be that's because months and years of playing with inoperable MM have done their job? I.e. that 70% of average players are washed out of this game?

I like guys who played MWO since 2012, but are still weak (have tier 2 or or less), and at the same time tell others how they play, how do they play, who kills when and why is someone better

really dude? can you stop say this trash, just turn on your brains and think mathematically - if a player have STABLE 6 kills per game and have 400 AS, it means that he knows how to play well... and no matter who what tier have

just look at the MWO tournaments, it also happens that one team do clean wins, but all teams have same high skill

Edited by Rkshz, 31 May 2020 - 11:40 AM.

[MrMadguy]

Rkshz, on 31 May 2020 - 11:37 AM, said:

I like guys who played MWO since 2012, but are still weak (have tier 2 or or less), and at the same time tell others how they play, how do they play, who kills when and why is someone better

really dude? can you stop say this trash, just turn on your brains and think mathematically - if a player have STABLE 6 kills per game and have 400 AS, it means that he knows how to play well... and no matter who what tier have

just look at the MWO tournaments, it also happens that one team do clean wins, but all teams have same high skill

Do you understand, that if 12 such players would be in the same team in some match, then not every one of them would be able to earn 6 kills? If some player earns 6 kills, someone else earns 0. If some player has STABLE 6 kills per game, then someone else has STABLE 0 kills per game. And they end up in the same team. Should that happen? I guess, no.

And yeah. I'm in Tier 2, but should have been in Tier 4. Simply because I prefer "fun" 'Mechs and builds instead of Meta ones. My motto is - MechLab exists for reason. I'm the greatest example of PSR's bias towards increasing. No matter, how bad my matches were, 1 good match was negating whole effect of 100 terribly bad matches with ~0 stats at the end. Streak of good matches while some holiday event - and I'm in Tier 2. And way back would take literally thousands of matches.

Edited by MrMadguy, 31 May 2020 - 12:00 PM.

[DAEDALOS513]

Anomalocaris, on 31 May 2020 - 11:11 AM, said:

You shot down nothing. In fact, you pleaded "bad memory" when I brought out the actual event dates - 3 events in 3 weeks. Is this another case of your "bad memory" too?

If the facts were on your side you probably wouldn't keep reporting my posts to the mods either....

I do find it rather funny (in a "oh look at that guy shoot himself in the foot" sort of way) that you consider a 3 month trend of increasing playerbase a sign that the 1 month merge queue test was a success for the game. As if that trend wouldn't have continued anyway without it? Watch what happens as we come off lockdown. Don't worry about your memory, I'll remind you later.

The trend is proving a point that you've been wrong from the start that this new queue would result in a downturn in playerbase..the resurgence is undeniable.. just go through the forums and see how many have reinstalled and brought their friends to join in on the mech-stomping fun.

I already showed how there have been 2 or 3 events per 30 day period.. a steady pattern since January.. and even if they did put out an event one weak earlier than usual, it was for the fact that most of the world is stuck at home.. instead of thanking PGI you criticize them.. I bet if they never did put out an event during this crisis you would be crying about how stingy they were..

Edited by DAEDALOS513, 31 May 2020 - 12:34 PM.

[Davegt27]

pupujuku, on 31 May 2020 - 10:48 AM, said:

what is PSR?

pilot skill rating

[Horseman]

DAEDALOS513, on 31 May 2020 - 09:03 AM, said:

You can speculate all you want.. doesn't mean much. Steam charts have been trending up the last three months (that's what the green numbers below the chart mean).
https://steamcharts.com/app/342200#3m
I already shot your event theory down when I showed that event frequency has not increased and is following a steady pattern all the way back to January averaging 2 or 3 events per 30 day period.
You're just grasping at straws because by now you must be realizing this change has been a net positive for the game..

Key point: last three months.
The queues have been merged one month ago.
Therefore, the growth predates the queue merge and the merge cannot be cited as the driving reason behind it.

Tarl Cabot, on 31 May 2020 - 10:06 AM, said:

Some of Paul's thoughts back in Sept 2015.. but then PGI has not made any changes to the PSR setup. Except with the current PSR thresolds, ESPECIALLY on a Win (see no issue with Loss thresholds) PGI has set the plateua very, very low... Again... avg 171 MS with 0.82 R/L ratio bouncing in/out of Tier 2 and Tier 1....And this is after playing 25K+ games (unsure of when said player actually hit Tier 1 the first time.)

PGI hasn't made changes to the PSR setup, no... they have made changes to the game's balance that gave plenty of mechs access to additional armor and greater damage output - look at Jarl's, there's a spike in average score that coincides with the Skill Tree and the Civil War tech update. That made things rather worse than before.

pupujuku, on 31 May 2020 - 10:48 AM, said:

what is PSR?

Pilot Skill Rating, it's a metric which determines your current Tier within the game and which PGI uses for matchmaking. It's also poorly designed and has been effectively broken for years, pushing poorly performing players steadily higher even when they lose substantially more often than they win.

DAEDALOS513, on 31 May 2020 - 12:32 PM, said:

The trend is proving a point that you've been wrong from the start that this new queue would result in a downturn in playerbase.

Wait until the lockdowns end everywhere and see how much - if anything - of the supposed growth remains. It is far, far too early to jump to conclusions about "resurgence".

Edited by Horseman, 31 May 2020 - 01:26 PM.

[DAEDALOS513]

Horseman, on 31 May 2020 - 01:25 PM, said:

Key point: last three months.
The queues have been merged one month ago.
Therefore, the growth predates the queue merge and the merge cannot be cited as the driving reason behind it.

I never said it was the main driving reason behind the resurgence.. but it does show that it didn't cause the mass exodus of players like a few of you have been stating since the beginning..

Horseman, on 31 May 2020 - 01:25 PM, said:

Wait until the lockdowns end everywhere and see how much - if anything - of the supposed growth remains. It is far, far too early to jump to conclusions about "resurgence".

Bah.. more speculating and predicticating.. I'm not saying if the resurgence will hold or not.. i'm just stating how things are now.. and they are looking good.

Edited by DAEDALOS513, 31 May 2020 - 01:52 PM.

[Horseman]

DAEDALOS513, on 31 May 2020 - 01:51 PM, said:

Bah.. more speculating and predicticating.. I'm not saying if the resurgence will hold or not.. i'm just stating how things are now.. and they are looking good.

They're not looking good - they are driven by an external factor that has nothing to do with the game and is preventing anyone from obtaining meaningful data about the current impact of the queue merge on the playerbase.
If the queue merge was a net positive, then some of the current playerbase influx will remain.
If the queue merge was a net negative, then the playerbase will decline faster than it did prior to the lockdown.
And the soonest we'll really get to see which is which is once the leaderboard data for June and July roll in. The concurrent player count on Steam can be an indicator, but it fluctuates too much to be truly reliable.

Edited by Horseman, 31 May 2020 - 02:18 PM.

[Anomalocaris]

DAEDALOS513, on 31 May 2020 - 12:32 PM, said:

The trend is proving a point that you've been wrong from the start that this new queue would result in a downturn in playerbase..the resurgence is undeniable.. just go through the forums and see how many have reinstalled and brought their friends to join in on the mech-stomping fun.

I already showed how there have been 2 or 3 events per 30 day period.. a steady pattern since January.. and even if they did put out an event one weak earlier than usual, it was for the fact that most of the world is stuck at home.. instead of thanking PGI you criticize them.. I bet if they never did put out an event during this crisis you would be crying about how stingy they were..

Once again, you seem to write without actually considering your words.

1. PGI did increase frequency of events during the test. Your attempt to characterize me with "would haves" is just a personal attack because you can't argue the facts. I have never advocated for or against events. I simply note that events increase player participation, event frequency went up during the merge, and PGI never intended to revert the merge (see Russ' tweets one week in). I leave it to the reader to reach their own conclusions.

2. You're not going to hear from all the people who stopped playing. Most will just stop, just like they did in the last year. I checked some of the folks that have stated they reinstalled and/or started playing again. Most never said they were leaving in the first place (they just left). Not surprising since goodbye posts are verboten on the forums. The numbers will tell the truth and we'll see in a couple months time.

The numbers were trending up during the virus shutdowns. They continued up during the merge at about the same pace as before (3 month trend 22%, 19%, 24%). Now they are starting to trend down. I totally missed that Friday April 17th (last event Friday pre-merge) had more players than 2 days ago (758 vs. 712). You claim the trend is due to the merge. Given that the trend started 2 months prior to the merge, you have no basis for claiming that. What will you say if player numbers drop over the next 2 months? Will you attribute it to lockdowns ending? Because if you do, you can't attribute the growth to the merge. Can't have it both ways.

Edited by Anomalocaris, 31 May 2020 - 02:35 PM.

[Firefox54]

It seems like the PSR will get reset (which is fine) ... hopefully the matchmaker also improves (understanding the general player base is low) ... just played 16 matches ... ~2/3 stomps (kept track ... just not memory bias) ... stopped playing for today, just wasn't fun (and I don't like to be salty ... but I really enjoy the game when it's more balanced).

Also, if PGI is still tweaking settings ... it'd be good to know if these differences in stomps are because of the tweaks or there's still a bigger problem. There was a while where I thought that the matchmaking got better ... but most of the last few days has been very stompy.

[Rkshz]

MrMadguy, on 31 May 2020 - 11:53 AM, said:

Do you understand, that if 12 such players would be in the same team in some match, then not every one of them would be able to earn 6 kills? If some player earns 6 kills, someone else earns 0. If some player has STABLE 6 kills per game, then someone else has STABLE 0 kills per game. And they end up in the same team. Should that happen? I guess, no.

And yeah. I'm in Tier 2, but should have been in Tier 4. Simply because I prefer "fun" 'Mechs and builds instead of Meta ones. My motto is - MechLab exists for reason. I'm the greatest example of PSR's bias towards increasing. No matter, how bad my matches were, 1 good match was negating whole effect of 100 terribly bad matches with ~0 stats at the end. Streak of good matches while some holiday event - and I'm in Tier 2. And way back would take literally thousands of matches.

https://leaderboard....arch?u=MrMadguy
you have stable <200 AS - so you right = your Tier is 4 on my system
and this is the only one truth from what you said

as you can see my system is not mistaken, so stop talking trash about who plays how and how many kills do - coz mathematics is not wrong, but not everyone has the brains to understand this

Spoiler

don't break current calculations system, stable "Average Score" are currently the only objective indicator of skill now. So just create dynamic tier, average score dependent. For example:
tier 5 = 0-99 AS
tier 4 = 100-199 AS
tier 3 = 200-299 AS
tier 2 = 300-399 AS
tier 1 = 400+ AS
- the tier should be updated every 20 games depending on stable "Average Score"
its objective and simple, and it will work with current calculations system, and you don’t need to break anything or redo it

Edited by Rkshz, 31 May 2020 - 02:51 PM.

[BattleBurgers]

/signed

Anything that makes battles more evenly matched without dramatically increasing the time it takes to find a game is good for this game. To hell with tiers and ratings, I'd rather have to climb back up the ladder than have the ladder collapse because nobody else wants to stay on it... okay, my analogy kinda fell apart there.

[FRAGTAST1C]

DAEDALOS513, on 31 May 2020 - 01:51 PM, said:

I never said it was the main driving reason behind the resurgence.. but it does show that it didn't cause the mass exodus of players like a few of you have been stating since the beginning..


Bah.. more speculating and predicticating.. I'm not saying if the resurgence will hold or not.. i'm just stating how things are now.. and they are looking good.

1. The exodus has already happened A hundred point gain from ~445 to ~550 is nothing to brag about. If this was a "resurgence" like you claim that it is, that number would've shot up. Instead, it's gone up by ~30 points from the last two months. If anything, March and April saw big increases, too, but you dwell on the stat that supports your opinions. That's called cherry picking. If the number increases further in the coming month or two, it'll have more to do with people wanting to see how the PSR reset is working out and nothing to do with soup queue.

2. Sure, sure. I'm genuinely intrigued. Why is it so hard for you to prove with clarity, whether what you're saying is right or wrong, without having to caveat it with something?

[DAEDALOS513]

Anomalocaris, on 31 May 2020 - 02:34 PM, said:

Once again, you seem to write without actually considering your words.

1. PGI did increase frequency of events during the test. Your attempt to characterize me with "would haves" is just a personal attack because you can't argue the facts. I have never advocated for or against events. I simply note that events increase player participation, event frequency went up during the merge, and PGI never intended to revert the merge (see Russ' tweets one week in). I leave it to the reader to reach their own conclusions.

2. You're not going to hear from all the people who stopped playing. Most will just stop, just like they did in the last year. I checked some of the folks that have stated they reinstalled and/or started playing again. Most never said they were leaving in the first place (they just left). Not surprising since goodbye posts are verboten on the forums. The numbers will tell the truth and we'll see in a couple months time.

The numbers were trending up during the virus shutdowns. They continued up during the merge at about the same pace as before (3 month trend 22%, 19%, 24%). Now they are starting to trend down. I totally missed that Friday April 17th (last event Friday pre-merge) had more players than 2 days ago (758 vs. 712). You claim the trend is due to the merge. Given that the trend started 2 months prior to the merge, you have no basis for claiming that. What will you say if player numbers drop over the next 2 months? Will you attribute it to lockdowns ending? Because if you do, you can't attribute the growth to the merge. Can't have it both ways.

I already explained about the frequency of events.. not gonna repeat myself.. I already explained that I didn't think the resurgence was solely due to soup.. not gonna repeat myself..

You have no problem repeating yourself.. I do.. just scroll up and re-read my posts..

[MODOK69]

I said I would give these 4 man group changes a try and after this weekend of stomps and "meta" teams, I will no longer be playing MWO. The only people who are enjoying the current state of affairs are the teams going around and stomping everybody. With a small player base I'm seeing the same "meta" teams and builds match after match. Hope you come out with a new MWO based on MW5 engine until then its a real shame you guys could not have fixed and marketed this game properly, Its a true gem, just not right now!!!!