379 replies to this topic

[General Solo]

Nesutizale, on 28 June 2020 - 02:00 AM, said:

The further discussion is kinda pointless at the moment.

Thats how I see it as well.

[Nesutizale]

Spare Knight, on 28 June 2020 - 02:21 PM, said:

I have been playing less than a year. If the new Tier Levels are going to be accurate (not an XP bar), I want to see it. I want to know if I am improving. I want more data, and not less. I am a grown man. My feelings are not going to be hurt by having Tier 3 on my Mech Bay screen.

Again...its not about "peoples feelings", couldn't care less about that. Its about people getting Tier completly wrong and what it means in the new system.

Also for the information part. Yes please more informations on player stats in the game. I am all for it. Have a dedicated menu with all the stats you only get on the website in the game.

Would also be very happy if the "final score" screen wouldn't be bound to a timer so that I have to take screenshots to take it all in and think about it. Best would be to have a collection of this be saved lockly on my client side so I can later pull all the data up to study them.

So yes more meaningfull informations for players. Tier on its own isn't meaningfull and is even worse missleading some people. Not eveyone is following the forums or anouncements to know what it means but when you see "damage done" thats an information everyone can understand or when they see "damage done" to "matchscore" and then can see "LRMing is high damage with little score but direct damage maybe less but higher scores" well thats a usefull information.
You are Tier 3....yah and that says what? How does that help me with my gameplay?

[David Sumner]

Zanotam, on 24 June 2020 - 11:58 AM, said:

... be quite fun as long as you don't get too many stomps one way or another in a row and was the way some of us remember the game being ...

Or like me you can remember 23 losses in a row with half of them being stomps.

There were times when things were very, very swingy.

[David Sumner]

Nightbird, on 26 June 2020 - 08:46 AM, said:

You missed the point, the PSR value proposed has no beneficial match making purpose. It's only value is in showing the casuals where their place in the hierarchy is. Hiding it defeats the very purpose of its existence.

Nice.
Reminds me which list to put you on.

[David Sumner]

OneTeamPlayer, on 27 June 2020 - 06:32 AM, said:

I dunno, I'm not going to name any names but there are unit names i cringe when i see stacked in our alpha lance because their presence is more likely to lead to a loss than not (especially since those which aren't stellar performers and don't communicate with the team) that are represented in Jarl's.

I think you might underestimate the number of very casual units.

Though I also wonder if "vanity units" with one person are factored out of the equations.

That'd be me.
With my one man unit named after my TT merc company.
And I should be border T2/T3 at best.

[Nightbird]

David Sumner, on 29 June 2020 - 02:05 AM, said:

Nice.
Reminds me which list to put you on.

The list of people that are against the proposed PSR?

[Nearly Dead]

PGI, at the very least improve the in game chat to the point that units could use it in game and between games. Then the rest of the team would at least have a better chance of knowing what is going on and playing as a team in matches that drop with a 4 man premade. Buy a license or something, it would be worth it.

I realize that doesn't do anything about the players who think talking to solo QPers is like talking to a stack of used tires behind Walmart, but at least it would remove one obstacle and might improve the QP experience a little.

[Nesutizale]

I don't quite understand. When you drop together you can allways use the chat...or did I miss something?

[Cluster Fox]

I did some work on Jay Z's model. Since this is the only thing considered so far.

I still strongly support WLR based MM. However, I think we should try to make the best out of what is happening within the PSR limitations imposed.

==TL;DR;==

Using standard deviation. Best parameters for Jay Z's model are:

X = 0,7691 Y
Y = Any value. Depending on how aggressive PGI wants the PSR shift to happen.
C = 1

My suggestion, keeping the initial shift aggressiveness of Jay Z's model :

X = 11.53
Y = 15
C = 1

==Background==
The parameters X=5, Y=20 and C = 0.6 are arbitrary. I have not seen analysis behind those parameters to back them off.

==Baseline data analysis==

From season46&47 data:
Standard deviation for MatchScore is +/-57 MS
Standard deviation for WLR is +/-0.34 WLR (non linear)

Those two are linked as you may see on the data graph, so the linear skill progression line is one where the average WLR and the average Match score intercept.



The slope for this skill line is Y(avgMS) = 214.36 * X(WLR)

Knowing the distribution, Standard deviation PSR change for avgMS should be equal to standard deviation change for avgWLR.

This also means that a player on the top left corner of the greenish box (standard deviation box) is approximately the same Real Skill level than a player at the bottom right.
So, for example: Real Skill for 275avgMS & 0.68WLR ~= Real Skill for 161avgMS & 1.34WLR

Again, this is backed up by the standard deviation.

==Solving C, X and Y==

Spoiler

Variables:
W,X,Y,C,P,M,A as defined in the original post.

C = 1. The average split between losing and winning team avgMS is unknown. So we keep the MS shift independent from the overall avgMS and only relative to the team (W/L effect taken out of MS shift).

Jay Z's formula : PSR shift = W(X) - Y + Y( C(P/A) + (1-C)(P/M) )

C = 1 gives (1-C)(P/M) = 0

PSR = PSR(W/L) + PSR(MS)

To represent a movement along the axis, PSR(W/L),stdDev = PSR(MS),stdDev

W(X) = -Y + Y(P/A)

Plugging the standard deviation in P/A:

P/A = (218(+/-)57)/218 = 1.2615 or 0.7385

Since WIN is positive and loss is negative, the standard deviation is affecting the long term value of W, averaging to (WLR-avgWLR). Plugging the standard deviation in W:

W = (1.017(+/-0.34)-1.017) = +/-0.34

Putting all of this together we get:

0.34(X) = (1.2615 - 1)(Y)

Which yields:

X = 0,7691 Y

==Results==

The relation between Jay Z's model parameters to match historical data is:

X = 0,7691 Y

This ratio will result in player skill being represented along the line leading to 218 avgMS and 1.0165WLR. Other ratios between X and Y will either favour avgMS or WLR too much.

==Caveats==

Spoiler

WLR is non-linear. The linear approximation is accurate around avgWLR and avgMS which holds more than 70% of the player base.
Very small (<0.5) and very large WLR (>2.0) will be most affected by X. Underestimating and Overestimating Real Skill respectively. The bias is favourable since the PSR spread is increased and MM discrimination is also increased.

This conclusion applies for the current Jay Z's PSR formula only.

This will never result in a steady state value as the shift is only bound by artificial limits. This is a limitation of the PSR system as it has been discussed. I still strongly support WLR based MM.

Changing the amplitude of both X and Y will affect how fast the movement happens.

==Conclusion and suggestion==

My suggested values - Keeping the initial aggressiveness. Using the Standard deviation from season 46 and 47 we get:

X = 11.53 (= 0,7691 Y )
Y = 15
C = 1

Now, if we set everything to 218(avgMS) in Jay Z's spreadsheet, and put one player at 275 and one at 161 for each team, we see the shift for WLR and the relative shift for avgMS. (Col 2C)

Edited by Cluster Fox, 29 June 2020 - 10:13 PM.

[Nearly Dead]

Nesutizale, on 29 June 2020 - 11:05 AM, said:

I don't quite understand. When you drop together you can allways use the chat...or did I miss something?

Sure you can. But in the first weeks after the merge many groups were dropping and even if directly asked, "Hey, you experienced guys from team XYZ, what do you want to do to win this?" they would frequently not answer as they were using another chat channel like discord, teamspeak etc that allowed them to hang out between matches and continue chatting. When I quit playing a couple of weeks ago I would estimate that the matches with team coordination taking place in the in game chat was down by 1/3-1/2 in the matches I played. And I was playing a lot back then, hours and hours a day. (Yeah, newly retired.)

It may be better now, I took my Arctic Wolf for a spin this afternoon and played maybe 6-8 matches and there was someone calling the shots in about half of them, a huge improvement, (but in a very small sample).

[Cluster Fox]

Alright, second part of the issue here. How to stabilize the PSR instead of having it go wild forever.

I used Jay Z's model for the base PSR shift, then tuned with my own values as seen in my last post.

==Known==

Jay Z's PSR shift system, using X = 11.53, Y = 15, C = 1

==Hypothesis==

Matchmaker knows a player's PSR when it's making a match, therefore it still has access to it at the end of the match.
- This cannot be verified unless access to the code is granted by PGI.

==Formula==

Once the match outcome is determined, we use Jay Z's model to calculate the PSRshift.

Then we transform it based on the PSR before the match.

PSRout = 2500 + (1 - P) * (PSRin - 2500) + (P * A * PSRshift)

or, in terms of a PSR change only. (I did not simplify, lazy)

NetPSRshift = 2500 + (1 - P) * (PSRin - 2500) + (P * A * PSRshift) - PSRin

Inputs

• PSRin is the PSR prior to the match
  
• PSRshift is the PSR shift calculated after the match (Jay Z)
  
• P is a response time, between 1 and 0. Small is smoother but takes more matches to represent skill.
  
• A is an amplifier. Equivalent to changing X and Y on Jay Z's system. This changes how spread out the distribution of players will be along the Y axis.

Outputs

• PSRout is the new PSR after the match
  
• NetPSRshift is the change after transforming. PSRout = PSRin + NetPSRshift

==Model==

Spoiler

5 archetypes - using a normal distribution for % because I'm no expert with the non-normal ones.

The potato : WLR and MS both 2 standard deviation below average. About 97.8% of players are stronger.
The weak : WLR and MS both 1 standard deviation below average. About 84.1% of players are stronger.
The average : WLR and MS both at the average. 50% of players are stronger.
The strong : WLR and MS both 1 standard deviation above average. About 15.9% of players are stronger.
The elite : WLR and MS both 2 standard deviation above average. About 2.2% of players are stronger.

Everyone started at 2500 PSR.

I did random end of games for each archetypes with the results varying around their average MS and WLR.
Jay Z's model was simply calculated against the averages.

The graphs have noise induced by W/L and MS differences and the trends are seen.

==Results==

Using Jay Z's system with the parameters mentioned, the amplifier A was set so that players over +/-2 standard deviations off the average hit the boundaries of 0 and 5000.

In both cases, A = 150



==Conclusion==

My formula can stabilize PSR to represent a skill level without having to fetch player information.

By taking known PSR before the match into account, we don't need artificial boundaries.

The formula can be adjusted for PSR to react quicker or slower by varying P.

The PSR distribution can be tightened around 2500 or spread out by varying A.

Edited by Cluster Fox, 30 June 2020 - 06:37 AM.

[MrMadguy]

Today is June 30. At least in my TZ. Where is our patch?

[Aidan Crenshaw]

It usually drops 18:00 UTC. Even Piranhas need to sleep.

[OneTeamPlayer]

MrMadguy, on 30 June 2020 - 04:17 AM, said:

Today is June 30. At least in my TZ. Where is our patch?

There's no patch warning/server downtime banner...

Those are usually posted days in advance of any planned server maintenance like a patch.

Wait and see is the order of the day, we may or may not be patching at all.

[RRAMIREZ]

Paul Inouye, on 23 June 2020 - 05:12 PM, said:

This change will require a full patch to the client and servers. I do not have a direct ETA but it will be in the VERY near future. I will update this post as soon as I get the estimate tomorrow (Jun 24). This new system is currently being tested by QA and is working as intended. It's not a big patch, just needs to be timed correctly.

[color=orange]UPDATE: ETA is Tuesday June 30th.[/color]

I don't remember if ETA was turned into "Confirmed date" for other patches...
It would be a bit of deception if it's postponned, I have to admit. But not the end of the world at that point

[ERescue]

@All: It is possible that they have hit some fairly last minute problem. But either way, it would be extremely great, if they posted some sort of information, even if it is: "Sorry, problems, hang in there...".

[Tarl Cabot]

MrMadguy, on 30 June 2020 - 04:17 AM, said:

Today is June 30. At least in my TZ. Where is our patch?

https://mwomercs.com/clock

As of the time of this post, it is PGI Time (PDT) Tuesday, June 30 2020 - 07:45:xx AM. Caffeine anyone?

Edited by Tarl Cabot, 30 June 2020 - 06:46 AM.

[RRAMIREZ]

Tarl Cabot, on 30 June 2020 - 06:45 AM, said:

https://mwomercs.com/clock

hoho didn't know of that link… Cool for a lazy me ^^
thx

[Nearly Dead]

Reset warning is scrolling for 1:00pm EST today.

[Sergeant Destroy]

Heyyy everyone t3 now...