177 replies to this topic

[kailii]

Kill my faulty math please!

I'm checking in to MM in an attempt to estimate player base.

A typical number in the MM is 40% for Assault Mechs (highest number) and 8% for Light Mechs (lowest number).
Right now i'm skilling up my Banshee Assaults, and have to wait 3 minutes quite often before MM decides a go.
Let's make a case out of these numbers!

Light Mechs are key for the MM.
If i have to wait 3 minutes, then 3 Light Mechs become available every 180 secs. / (40% Assaults / 8% Lights) or 180/5=36 seconds. Or 6 Lights when counting both sides.
That is assuming the MM does not give a valve and tries to 3/3/3/3.

We have more pilots in the other weight classes waiting in queue already, so the Lights define waiting time.
Those 36 seconds to find 3 Lights (per side) are all that is needed to launch a game.
So every 36 seconds a new game is started.

PGI said that the average match time is around 7 minutes.

That's 7*60 = 420 seconds, and as we know by now we need to wait 36 seconds for a new game to start. We get 6 Lights and therefore a full team in that time.

So 420/36... round about 12 matches are running at once, and that's 12 (matches at once) * 24 (players per match) = a bit less than 300 players in total, gaming at once.

[Bishop Steiner]

kailii, on 07 October 2014 - 03:22 PM, said:

Kill my faulty math please!

I'm checking in to MM in an attempt to estimate player base.

A typical number in the MM is 40% for Assault Mechs (highest number) and 8% for Light Mechs (lowest number).
Right now i'm skilling up my Banshee Assaults, and have to wait 3 minutes quite often before MM decides a go.
Let's make a case out of these numbers!

Light Mechs are key for the MM.
If i have to wait 3 minutes, then 3 Light Mechs become available every 180 secs. / (40% Assaults / 8% Lights) or 180/5=36 seconds. Or 6 Lights when counting both sides.
That is assuming the MM does not give a valve and tries to 3/3/3/3.

We have more pilots in the other weight classes waiting in queue already, so the Lights define waiting time.
Those 36 seconds to find 3 Lights (per side) are all that is needed to launch a game.
So every 36 seconds a new game is started.

PGI said that the average match time is around 7 minutes.

That's 7*60 = 420 seconds, and as we know by now we need to wait 36 seconds for a new game to start. We get 6 Lights and therefore a full team in that time.

So 420/36... round about 12 matches are running at once, and that's 12 (matches at once) * 24 (players per match) = a bit less than 300 players in total, gaming at once.

MM only shows percents for those available to drop when you are checking, not totals for those already in matches, last I heard.

[Sable]

in the town hall meeting russ said they had 30,000 phoenix packages. There's plenty of people that play this game. At least 50,000 if not more. which by the way is also what eve online has daily. So i'd say it is an "average" game population

Edited by Sable, 07 October 2014 - 03:48 PM.

[VoodooLou Kerensky]

*points at all the founders and Nelson Laughs then runs off*

[Mechwarrior Buddah]

They should just up and tell us, to kill the doomsayers and bolster the faithful.

And not in matches per day, as people can repeat in those matches (as we all see), but in actual unique players

Sable, on 07 October 2014 - 03:47 PM, said:

in the town hall meeting russ said they had 30,000 phoenix packages. There's plenty of people that play this game. At least 50,000 if not more. which by the way is also what eve online has daily. So i'd say it is an "average" game population

Uh, they also said they were happy they had 50% founder retention. Im betting theres been some attrition of those numbers from the PPs, so counting all 30k of those as here is as erroneous as saying all the founders are

[XX Sulla XX]

Looking at sales numbers etc it is probably about 50k.

[N0MAD]

Mechwarrior Buddah, on 07 October 2014 - 03:54 PM, said:

They should just up and tell us, to kill the doomsayers and bolster the faithful.

And not in matches per day, as people can repeat in those matches (as we all see), but in actual unique players



Uh, they also said they were happy they had 50% founder retention. Im betting theres been some attrition of those numbers from the PPs, so counting all 30k of those as here is as erroneous as saying all the founders are

What sales numbers?

[Mechwarrior Buddah]

N0MAD, on 07 October 2014 - 04:14 PM, said:

What sales numbers?

What what sales numbers?

I think you quoted the wrong person

Edited by Mechwarrior Buddah, 07 October 2014 - 04:17 PM.

[N0MAD]

I take it those sale numbers come from the people that told us CW is being worked on and then much later told us no they were in fact not working on it because of reasons, which makes their earlier statements about working on CW what?
Me thinks i quoted wrong post? my bad.

Edited by N0MAD, 07 October 2014 - 04:21 PM.

[Green Mamba]

From the OP's Title, I take It both Neil DeGrasse Tyson and Michio Kaku's Jobs' are Safe

[Hydrocarbon]

Regardless of math faults, it's still near enough to 3k. If only half that voted for the ****** mode change, that means the minority probably forced something the majority didn't want.

[TrentTheWanderer]

No one wanted the mode change, they did it because the concurrent player numbers were too low to allow anyone to pick their own game modes.

[Angel of Annihilation]

Well also consider that every bracket has around 1500 players minimum in it so potentially we saw around 12k people opt in. I say potentially because some people like myself played in two different weight class brackets but since the best way to win that tourney was to play just one weight class as many times possible to eck out every possible point, I think it safe to assume most people played in one class only. Let say for giggles between 9-10k unique players for the tourney. I would also guess perhaps 50% or maybe even more off all players may not have opted in so I think a rough guess for players over the weekend was about 20-25k or figure roughly 8-10k in the que at any given time during prime hours.

[Russ Bullock]

About 900 players received a full 10M C-bills

[Thorqemada]

Moar math to do...

...and the Players doing a tournament probably be a fraction of the general playerbase.

[Russ Bullock]

Yes not everyone by a long shot opts in to the tournament.

[Bishop Steiner]

Russ Bullock, on 07 October 2014 - 07:03 PM, said:

Yes not everyone by a long shot opts in to the tournament.

way to tease, Russ.

[Novakaine]

Does any of this matter?
I highly doubt anyone runs any kind of business at a loss.
I'm not a business man, but my brother is and he'd say.
"Nope"
Obviously since the servers are on, player number's or payer numbers are good.
Otherwise well no servers - no game.
Nuff said.
On a side note if PGI would add some of these bad boy's..........

Just thinking Russ.

[Nathan Foxbane]

I played in the tourney for a bit an did not earn a single cbill bonus. My WVR-6K probably was not the best medium to drop in, but it is one of my favorites.

[Bishop Steiner]

Novakaine, on 07 October 2014 - 07:29 PM, said:

Does any of this matter?
I highly doubt anyone runs any kind of business at a loss.
I'm not a business man, but my brother is and he'd say.
"Nope"
Obviously since the servers are on, player number's or payer numbers are good.
Otherwise well no servers - no game.
Nuff said.
On a side note if PGI would add some of these bad boy's..........

Just thinking Russ.