Titan Prometheus, on 17 March 2022 - 10:44 AM, said:
In every instance that I have examined where the match-maker has obviously broken, the match-maker could have done significantly better with how it formed the two teams once the 6 lances had already been formed. The match-maker simply needs to swap lances between the teams to make a better match up either by skill level (average match score weighted by tier) or tonnage, or both.
The broken match-maker has NOTHING to do with population, and besides wait times are not long. The match-maker piles more high tier players on one side than the other, and more tonnage on one side than the other. As a T1 player, if I drop with lower tier lance mates it seems to throw multiple lower tier lances on our team, yet the enemy team is mostly T1. It sucks. Fix the match-maker before doing anything else please.
do some math on the jarls global stats and you find that it is impossible to field 12 mans of like-skill players anywhere outside of t3. especially at off peak hours. going 8v8 probibly wont fix that anywhere but during the peak condition and only some fraction of the time. players are playing on average 23.5 hours per season (based on number of matches played and 15 minute games). these numbers are for feburary so there were 672 hours for that month. with 17950 total players, the pool size at any given time becomes 627.7 on average. with 24 players per game thats only enough to spawn 26.2 matches. with 16 you can spawn 39.2. and you can apportion the available skills into more finely granulated sets where the skill delta is smaller. reducing skill deltas within and across teams improves match making.
now i dont have data on the tier composition of active players. but i can assume a bell distribution (as the match score curve on jarls seems to appear). out of 627.7 players 469.3 will be t3, 85.2 each in t2 and t4, and only 14.3 in the extreme tiers. now you have to realize that some of that player pool will be tied up in games. i dont have any good stats on this but i figure, and im being generous, between a quarter and a third will be searching for matches, and available to the mm. so even at 8v8, it would be impossible for the extreme skill players to have "pure" tier matchers. its at least possible in the 2s and 4s but extremely rare outside of peak hours. even 1,2 and 4,5 there really aren't enough players to avoid dipping into t3. mm only really works for those who are average. a lot of the "mm is broke" comes from the best and the worst and "mm is fine" comes from the middle. unless we can have more best and more worst, (read: asking the mathematically impossible) this will not change.
we all know from lights op threads that tonnage is mostly irrelevant. while assaults generally do perform better than lights, its a narrow margin compared to the difference of skill, say between t3 and t2. higher skill squirrel beats lower skill assault every time. reverse the tables and its the same. skill>class. only when you limit the skill disparity do the class disparities reveal themselves.
24
